December 2017 Mid-Long Range Disco

[Cobalt]

I still think a wintry Christmas storm isn't off the table. GEFS is rather impressive with the increase of snow during that time 

4 days later:

An increase of 1.5" that far out is pretty impressive. The precip mean during that time is also impressive

From what it looks from that, the mean would suggest rain. I think that if the cold gets in before the storm, the potential for Wintry weather is there. -EPO would suggest cold country-wide, so if there were no precip during this time, temps would probably near to below average.

[CAPE]

Weeklies look pretty meh overall. Not terrible, but just not the really nice runs we have seen recently. Verbatim, almost everyday from day 21 onwards has above avg 850 mb temps. The NPAC features more negative h5 anomalies, troughing out west at times, more of a zonal look at other times. HL look is pretty decent overall though, so I will hang my hat on that. I am not one to do detailed breakdowns because these tools are what they are. I am giving you the general idea.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

I still think a wintry Christmas storm isn't off the table. GEFS is rather impressive with the increase of snow during that time 

4 days later:

An increase of 1.5" that far out is pretty impressive. The precip mean during that time is also impressive

From what it looks from that, the mean would suggest rain. I think that if the cold gets in before the storm, the potential for Wintry weather is there. -EPO would suggest cold country-wide, so if there were no precip during this time, temps would probably near to below average.

Then it sounds like it starts to fall apart.  Oh well..nothing good or bad lasts forever

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

How has the GEFS verified? It seems to have a substantial cold bias. 
This is December so far.

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, StormchaserChuck said:

How has the GEFS verified? It seems to have a substantial cold bias. 
This is December so far.

We've been above average temperature-wise for 7 days, and below average for 3 days. I never said anything about the GEFS verifying. I only said not to count out the chance for wintry weather near or after Christmas. Also, judging by your prediction of the 7th-16th period having "an 80% chance of being 12-15 degrees above average", I think you're a bit of a nutcase. 

What's your prediction for temperatures during Christmas week?

[Cobalt]

14 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Then it sounds like it starts to fall apart.  Oh well..nothing good or bad lasts forever

Looks like pattern will switch following the 1st or 2nd week of January. I think we'll have a chance to fall back into cold maybe 2 weeks + after that, 3 if being realistic.

[mitchnick]

Just now, StormchaserChuck said:

How has the GEFS verified? It seems to have a substantial cold bias. 
This is December so far.

First, you need to identify what run (s) you are referring to since they jump around so much and the few warm days at the beginning of the month during a relaxation period happen to be included.  Plus, every local reporting station has either almost hit or surpassed climo snowfall for December.  It has felt wintry around here for almost a month now. Time will tell where we go from here, not the models. 

[87storms]

i'd be ok with a mild january in exchange for a snowy dec/feb.

[aldie 22]

29 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

 

Possible to add a few more years to the blend?

[mitchnick]

32 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

 

Sounds like this guy is another internet hypster. Read what Tombo and mets said about the weeklies in the Philly forum.

http://www.phillywx.com/topic/894-cfs-ggem-jma-and-euro-weeklies-thread/?page=23

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

First, you need to identify what run (s) you are referring to since they jump around so much and the few warm days at the beginning of the month during a relaxation period happen to be included.  Plus, every local reporting station has either almost hit or surpassed climo snowfall for December.  It has felt wintry around here for almost a month now. Time will tell where we go from here, not the models. 

Don't bother mitch. Your can't have a rational conversation with an irrational person. Chuck undermines all the really good conversation/analysis with off the wall baseless claims, bizarre posts, and bad analysis. Everything that has happened since mid Nov has gone pretty much exactly how we expected. You know this. I know this. And everyone else who hangs around here knows this. 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Possible to add a few more years to the blend?

They dont look great. I gave my take back a few posts. 

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

They dont look great. I gave my take back a few posts. 

Weeklies flip around as much as anything with the only difference being smoothed out due to uber long lead times. I know you know this. Just repeating stuff. I knew the streak of good runs would end. They always do. So do the bad ones. 

The weeklies are most useful when we're dying on the vine basking in warm sun and no snow for weeks on end and looking for any glimmer of hope. Right now we'e starting down the barrel of short lead potential and multiple things inside of 2 weeks. The weeklies are really low on my list of guidance I care about right now. 

 

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Sounds like this guy is another internet hypster. Read what Tombo and mets said about the weeklies in the Philly forum.

http://www.phillywx.com/topic/894-cfs-ggem-jma-and-euro-weeklies-thread/?page=23

And that analysis doesn't sound like we are moving away from a generally colder pattern in the eastern US? 

lol did you read it?

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

And that analysis doesn't sound like we are moving away from a generally colder pattern in the eastern US? 

lol did you read it?

week 1 -8

week 2 -1

week 3 -5

week 4 -2

week 5 +1

week 6 0

precip below normal

 

That leads me to believe that the time during Mid January will be warmer than average, since I'm guessing our anomaly of heat would be bigger than Philly's. I guess we'll see

[Cobalt]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Weeklies flip around as much as anything with the only difference being smoothed out due to uber long lead times. I know you know this. Just repeating stuff. I knew the streak of good runs would end. They always do. So do the bad ones. 

The weeklies are most useful when we're dying on the vine basking in warm sun and no snow for weeks on end and looking for any glimmer of hope. Right now we'e starting down the barrel of short lead potential and multiple things inside of 2 weeks. The weeklies are really low on my list of guidance I care about right now. 

 

Completely agree. Snow chances for at least 1 month seem realistic. Very rarely do winters go without a couple weeks of heat anomalies. Some just have the warmth during times that don't matter, like 2009/2010 with warmth during early-mid January and late Feb-March. If anything, whatever warm pattern will flip given enough time.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Weeklies flip around as much as anything with the only difference being smoothed out due to uber long lead times. I know you know this. Just repeating stuff. I knew the streak of good runs would end. They always do. So do the bad ones. 

The weeklies are most useful when we're dying on the vine basking in warm sun and no snow for weeks on end and looking for any glimmer of hope. Right now we'e starting down the barrel of short lead potential and multiple things inside of 2 weeks. The weeklies are really low on my list of guidance I care about right now. 

 

Agreed. Pretty much what I said, and why its not worth trying to do an atomic level analysis. Completely futile. Biggest takeaway is the look up top stays pretty nice until the last several days, which is way out there in lala land. The NPAC looks like it could get unfavorable again, but we will just have to wait and see. Certainly not unexpected if it does.

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Agreed. Pretty much what I said, and why its not worth trying to do an atomic level analysis. Completely futile. Biggest takeaway is the look up top stays pretty nice until the last several days, which is way out there in lala land. The NPAC looks like it could get unfavorable again, but we will just have to wait and see. Certainly not unexpected if it does.

One thing this winter seems to be showing early is lining up good temps with precip chances. We could very well finish met winter with AN temps and AN snow. The jury is still out on the AO. If that tanks again then we can talk BN temps. If it oscillates up and down it will keep us busy inside of 2 week leads without big heating bills to go with it. Lol

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

One thing this winter seems to be showing early is lining up good temps with precip chances. We could very well finish met winter with AN temps and AN snow. The jury is still out on the AO. If that tanks again then we can talk BN temps. If it oscillates up and down it will keep us busy inside of 2 week leads without big heating bills to go with it. Lol

I may be optimistic, but I think this winter will end with BN temps and near normal snow. We'll have our annual early Jan ice box before going to warmth and maybe a temporary torch. We'll be desperate by the end of the torch, and then we'll get some snow events, maybe 1 big one during mid-late Feb. Just a guess

 

[Yeoman]

2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

I may be optimistic, but I think this winter will end with BN temps and near normal snow. We'll have our annual early Jan ice box before going to warmth and maybe a temporary torch. We'll be desperate by the end of the torch, and then we'll get some snow events, maybe 1 big one during mid-late Feb. Just a guess

 

Sounds reasonable.

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

One thing this winter seems to be showing early is lining up good temps with precip chances. We could very well finish met winter with AN temps and AN snow. The jury is still out on the AO. If that tanks again then we can talk BN temps. If it oscillates up and down it will keep us busy inside of 2 week leads without big heating bills to go with it. Lol

Went back and looked at the run a bit more carefully, and fwiw, the AO looks legit negative from around Xmas until mid January. The NAO looks solidly negative that whole time and beyond. The Pacific is changeable and generally getting more unfavorable with time, and likely why the run has more ridging and milder temps in the east. So some mixed signals, and like you suggest, we could certainly score when things align in our favor, and be generally milder otherwise. That is more analysis than I normally do with these  ultra LR tools lol, but as I said in my op its not terrible, just meh, and the HL look is generally good.

[mitchnick]

22 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

And that analysis doesn't sound like we are moving away from a generally colder pattern in the eastern US? 

lol did you read it?

Yes. And  I compared the weekly anomaly temps posted above that Tombo provided and compared them to the weekly numbers he posted on Thursday night's run found at this link:

 http://www.phillywx.com/topic/894-cfs-ggem-jma-and-euro-weeklies-thread/?do=findComment&comment=84132

Here are the numbers for easy comparison to the ones Cobalt posted above:

Temps

week 1 -8

week 2 0

week 3 -1

week 4 -2

week 5 -1

week 6 0

And believe it or not, the average for all the weeks is colder this run!

[Cobalt]

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Went back and looked at the run a bit more carefully, and fwiw, the AO looks legit negative from around Xmas until mid January. The NAO looks solidly negative that whole time and beyond. The Pacific is changeable and generally getting more unfavorable with time, and likely why the run has more ridging and milder temps in the east. So some mixed signals, and like you suggest, we could certainly score when things align in our favor, and be generally milder otherwise. That is more analysis than I normally to with these  ultra LR tools lol, but as I said in my op its not terrible, just meh, and the HL look is generally good.

Seems like it's gonna be that type of winter. Probably warm as often or more often as it is cold, but with more smaller snow chances. Someone said that the Saturday event would be a test of it it wants to snow this winter. If we can squeeze out these frequent events, we're in business.

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Yes. And  I compared the weekly anomaly temps posted above that Tombo provided and compared them to the weekly numbers he posted on Thursday night's run found at this link:

 http://www.phillywx.com/topic/894-cfs-ggem-jma-and-euro-weeklies-thread/?do=findComment&comment=84132

Here are the numbers for easy comparison to the ones Cobalt posted above:

Temps

week 1 -8

week 2 0

week 3 -1

week 4 -2

week 5 -1

week 6 0

And believe it or not, the average for all the weeks is colder this run!

Kinda surprised that week 2 is average. Probably gonna be warm from Monday-Wednesday then. By then we will have identified a couple threats for Christmas week, so the hype will be real 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Yes. And  I compared the weekly anomaly temps posted above that Tombo provided and compared them to the weekly numbers he posted on Thursday night's run found at this link:

 http://www.phillywx.com/topic/894-cfs-ggem-jma-and-euro-weeklies-thread/?do=findComment&comment=84132

Here are the numbers for easy comparison to the ones Cobalt posted above:

Temps

week 1 -8

week 2 0

week 3 -1

week 4 -2

week 5 -1

week 6 0

And believe it or not, the average for all the weeks is colder this run!

Looking at h5 (verbatim) it is clearly moving away from a cold look in the east. I would give that more weight than 850t anomalies, but like I said- it's not worth doing that level of analysis with a tool such as this. At best it gives a general idea, maybe, of where the pattern is heading. Time will tell.

[mitchnick]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Looking at h5 (verbatim) it is clearly moving away from a cold look in the east. I would give that more weight than 850t anomalies, but like I said- it's not worth doing that level of analysis with a tool such as this. At best it gives a general idea, maybe, of where the pattern is heading. Time will tell.

I agree. And the fact is, if we're looking for snow,  we don't want a big blue ball circling just to our north at 10,000' anyway.  He!!, if it wasn't for the SE Ridge flexing its muscles with each successive model run and the northern stream staying north, it would have never snowed 2 days ago. 

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I agree. And the fact is, if we're looking for snow,  we don't want a big blue ball circling just to our north at 10,000' anyway.  He!!, if it wasn't for the SE Ridge flexing its muscles with each successive model run and the northern stream staying north, it would have never snowed 2 days ago. 

Yea, I agree with this. Walking the line can work well with just enough blocking over the top. Don't need a mega -ao/nao. Just enough to displace the trop pv somewhere around say Hudson or thereabouts. 

This year is a little different than 93/94 or 13/14. Epo seems to want to be similar but without a raging +ao. 13/14 had extreme swings at times. The cold hit hard but moved out fast every single time. I'd be totally fine with the SE ridge or WAR being in play as long as canada stays cold and the ao works in our favor in general. 

So far the storm track is looking good this month. The med/short range trend has been to either hold or push south instead of constantly shifting north as leads close. Jan and early Feb 2015 needed to show long range tracks starting in northern Alabama to stand a chance. Lol. It did flip on us but what a pain in the rear watching every fookin run edge us slowly out of the game. 

The fairly tight spacing in the NS is doing good things for us right now. The misses to the north are actually good because it's allowing trailing energy to dig. Keep that going all winter please. Haha

[MountainGeek]

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I agree. And the fact is, if we're looking for snow,  we don't want a big blue ball circling just to our north at 10,000' anyway.  He!!, if it wasn't for the SE Ridge flexing its muscles with each successive model run and the northern stream staying north, it would have never snowed 2 days ago. 

Yeah, plus going into peak climo, we don't NEED as much of a cold anomaly to still be cold enough for snow.

If we're going for snow from end to end, then I'd want to see the biggest cold anomalies in late Nov/early Dec, and then late March/early April since we need abnormal cold to have a chance of snow then.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

The disappointing thing about this recent blocking pattern is that there is no Stratospheric warming

[eurojosh]

26 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said:

The disappointing thing about this recent blocking pattern is that there is no Stratospheric warming

That reminds me. How was the Siberian snow cover in October?