mitchnick Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 if you put the euro precip maps into motion, you can see that the clipper kicks the storm east just as it's ready to throw back decent qpf over us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Just now, pasnownut said: thx for this. Do you have the 0z at your tips for comparisons sake? Nut Last night's 00z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, Chase said: Last night's 00z: thx man. Bout a 40-50 mile NW tick in qpf. Baby steps Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: For d4+ leads, I'm pretty thrilled with what the euro just spit out.... Yes, it looks pretty nice... if we can get it to come a bit further NW we are in business IMO... and I think mitchnick mentioned it, but slow the clipper down just a tad as well and we should get a nice lil event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 looks like the u/l trough refires the precip as it approaches the coast at 132 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Good thing its meteorologically impossible for Salisbury to jackpot. This thing is headed NW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: boy that map looks eerily similar to the January storm last year/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2017 Author Share Posted December 4, 2017 Ggem, ukmet, and euro ops all showing a light event is not a bad position to be 4.5 days out. Especially since they all inched west from their previous runs. If EPS can hold or improve, I’d be quite happy to totally flush the gfs. P.S. jma looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 FWIW, LWX was stating it its morning AFD that the UL flow was more N to S Quote Current model forecasts tend to keep this energy sheared out and thus the surface low tracks well offshore. However, highly meridional (north to south) upper level flow, with a very strong ridge positioned near 120 W longitude during this time argues there is room for error in this forecast track. This time period bears watching in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Ggem, ukmet, and euro ops all showing a light event is not a bad position to be 4.5 days out. Especially since they all inched west from their previous runs. If EPS can hold or improve, I’d be quite happy to totally flush the gfs. P.S. jma looks good. That's Ji's job to post that And I expect the EPS to look a little better since the OP moved west a tad... or at least I hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 NAVGEM has good 12-18 hours of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 12z EPS should be really interesting. And remember how nice the 0z EPS looked.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: boy that map looks eerily similar to the January storm last year/winter That storm was suppressed down to Georgia until like 4 days out (oh how sweet it was to get jackpotted) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Ggem, ukmet, and euro ops all showing a light event is not a bad position to be 4.5 days out. Especially since they all inched west from their previous runs. If EPS can hold or improve, I’d be quite happy to totally flush the gfs. P.S. jma looks good. Add the German and the NAVGEV to that as well. Not too shabby a group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: 12z EPS should be really interesting. And remember how nice the 0z EPS looked.. I think I remember someone saying that on the 00z EPS, 22 members out of the 50 gave 2"+ for the region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: 12z EPS should be really interesting. And remember how nice the 0z EPS looked.. yeah if we could get the EPS to agree or be a tick better than the Op, i think som mayopen the blinds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Speak to the hand. I’m not buying anything you people sell until someone says the Panasonic and CRAS is on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 in general, I'm seening a better/sharper trough orientation on 12z's, and to me thats the biggest takeaway (other than slightly higher heights letting this puppy climb a bit more. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Euro shows the same 3rd wave of cold being pretty potent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 So is winter uncancelled again until the 18z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 15 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Good thing its meteorologically impossible for Salisbury to jackpot. This thing is headed NW! You know it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Euro showing a pretty potent vort pass on the 13th. No much precip on the panels but it's a good track. Fantasy range or not, I'll always be happy when a NS vort gets under us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 33 minutes ago, mitchnick said: boy that map looks eerily similar to the January storm last year/winter A Lewes/Rehoboth special! This early in the year seems quite aggressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: A Lewes/Rehoboth special! This early in the year seems quite aggressive I wasn't pounding my chest over that storm, rather the table! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro showing a pretty potent vort pass on the 13th. No much precip on the panels but it's a good track. Fantasy range or not, I'll always be happy when a NS vort gets under us. Looks like it refreshes Salisbury's snow pack a bit lol. But yeah we can book that one- I have to drive to Philly that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Looks like it refreshes Salisbury's snow pack a bit lol. But yeah we can book that one- I have to drive to Philly that day. Another one on a nice trajectory d10. I know that this stuff is fantasy so it's not like I'm banking on little pieces at long range. Just liking the tracks they're taking. Clippers always have the nice pretty fluffy snowflakes that are easy to inflate snow totals with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Another one on a nice trajectory d10. I know that this stuff is fantasy so it's not like I'm banking on little pieces at long range. Just liking the tracks they're taking. Clippers always have the nice pretty fluffy snowflakes that are easy to inflate snow totals with. some don't need a clipper to do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Another one on a nice trajectory d10. I know that this stuff is fantasy so it's not like I'm banking on little pieces at long range. Just liking the tracks they're taking. Clippers always have the nice pretty fluffy snowflakes that are easy to inflate snow totals with. The one day 10 has the most energy with it also, and its heading in during a time the long range models have been keying on so its nice to see it there. Thats all we can take from that ATT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 EPS: About the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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