CAPE Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Lets see if we can collectively will the late week chance into a nice little light to moderate event before things relax for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 This is how it starts..we joke about it and then it happens...70 on Xmas...or maybe if we prepare now it won’t happen. I’m starting to panic now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I would normally totally disregard the gfs op in fantasy range but warmth and/or rain seems to be a thing around here during ANY PART OF WINTER. Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Euro has a dusting fest for us this week. 3 for MBY. GEFS and EPS disagree in important ways going forward toward Christmas. GEFS dumps a trough in the SW, which pulls the WAR back to more of a SE ridge and probably keeps the boundary to our north. Can see that visually clearly on the last few GFS op runs. EPS keeps the trough centered in the east, which keeps our temps below normal and probably keeps us closer to or north of the happy side of the gradient. Eps mslp maps centered for that period have nary any LP in the lower 48. Looks HP dominated cold. Although 1) it could be wrong 2) overunning would still be a concern even without any visible area of LP on the LR eps, and 3) as you said, would rather take my chances in being on the cold side of the gradient. Im surprised with the known Euro bias of keeping energy back in the SW it is complete opposite of the GEFS in this regard with no sign of a trof feature in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: GEPS is cold. Maybe colder than EPS. 2 against 1. Different look to get the cold into the region but yes, we take. 2 vs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: GEPS is cold. Maybe colder than EPS. 2 against 1. I stand corrected, GEPS and GEFS send the cold into the lower 48 based on the EPO ridge, so they are similar. You can also see on the GEPS there is some weakness at H5 near Baja around the 22nd or 23rd but the GEPS ejects right around Christmas. Looks like the GFS op sort of with a SWFE/gradient setup but GEPS looks like we could have the GFS op SW-NE wave train but colder. Probably reading too much into it at this range but I have a feeling the GFS op is too far N with the SE Ridge/gradient centered around the 24th25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Elephants in rooms should not be ignored was my only point. I obviously have no skill in this but I also don't disregard something that continuously shows up on model runs even if only on one model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 0z euro control has a legit white christmas with 4-6" OTG. I'll go with that for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 0z euro control has a legit white christmas with 4-6" OTG. I'll go with that for now. Was just about to post that. Euro control is a beautiful 4-6" Powder storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Elephants in rooms should not be ignored was my only point. I obviously have no skill in this but I also don't disregard something that continuously shows up on model runs even if only on one model. I would bet even Ji provides more use than a day 15 model map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 So... any chance the two systems phase on Friday? I see LWX made mention of it in their AFD - even though they said its unlikely... would be interesting if it did as the 06z GFS shows a period of snow around 12z FRI to 00z SAT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 14 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Elephants in rooms should not be ignored was my only point. I obviously have no skill in this but I also don't disregard something that continuously shows up on model runs even if only on one model. How “continuously” has it been showing up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: So... any chance the two systems phase on Friday? I see LWX made mention of it in their AFD - even though they said its unlikely... would be interesting if it did as the 06z GFS shows a period of snow around 12z FRI to 00z SAT Seems like it's likely to slide to our South. It'll be interesting to see what the models show for it the next few days. I mean, this Saturday storm looked like it was gonna scoot to our South, so I guess we won't know for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, mattie g said: How “continuously” has it been showing up? More than not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: More than not I just took a look out of curiosity, and I saw that two of the last six runs had yellow/orange temps on Christmas Eve. That's the extent of my analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 It seems like the only reason we'd see 70 degrees on Christmas is due to a storm pushing well to our North. No pattern change or warmup. I think if anything, the warmest we'd get is 50 degrees and rainy on Christmas, but that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 I've got a better idea than worrying about what happens 2 weeks from now and beyond. Let's focus on this week this week, and next week and beyond, next week. There are a few chances this week. Who knows, maybe they morph into something better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Eps mslp maps centered for that period have nary any LP in the lower 48. Looks HP dominated cold. Although 1) it could be wrong 2) overunning would still be a concern even without any visible area of LP on the LR eps, and 3) as you said, would rather take my chances in being on the cold side of the gradient. Im surprised with the known Euro bias of keeping energy back in the SW it is complete opposite of the GEFS in this regard with no sign of a trof feature in the SW. Is this still a true known bias? I know it was years ago, but thought somewhere along the lines someone said it's not much of a problem anymore with the various upgrades made to the model. Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1 hour ago, PhineasC said: Shorts on Christmas with the windows open and A/C kicking on is a MA tradition these days. That'll be me anyway..I'll be in Mexico. Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: That'll be me anyway..I'll be in Mexico. Merry Christmas Feliz Navidad! fixed.....for real! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: That'll be me anyway..I'll be in Mexico. Merry Christmas! Feliz Navidad Senor! We'll probably get a snowstorm now that you will be out of the country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Models have been flipping around in the long range. I wouldn’t put much stock in any one run or it’s ensembles. 6z GFS looked meh, but 0z looked good overall to me. I’d just focus on the next week to 10 days and let the Christmas week pattern shake itself out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 11 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I've got a better idea than worrying about what happens 2 weeks from now and beyond. Let's focus on this week this week, and next week and beyond, next week. There are a few chances this week. Who knows, maybe they morph into something better. Agreed. Not worried about Christmas wx at all (and because I won't even be here). Maybe end of week will trend better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 12 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I've got a better idea than worrying about what happens 2 weeks from now and beyond. Let's focus on this week this week, and next week and beyond, next week. There are a few chances this week. Who knows, maybe they morph into something better. You just put a whole bunch of people on here out of a job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 52 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Was just about to post that. Euro control is a beautiful 4-6" Powder storm Oh, man ! If that happens again, I may be a guest at WxWatcher007's place for the holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: That'll be me anyway..I'll be in Mexico. Merry Christmas! Must be nice. Enjoy and have a safe trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Don't look now, but the GFS just gave us a clipper and a follow up snow on the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Don't look now, but the GFS just gave us a clipper and a follow up snow on the 12z Forecast supports that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 That follow-up wave is on the Euro ensembles too, so it's not the GFS being crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Follow up wave around hr 108 looks tasty... 2-3"... we take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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