December 2017 Mid-Long Range Disco

[87storms]

in fact, i'd be interested to find out how much snow versus other precip we get each winter.  it's probably a miserable ratio.  get the cold...at some point the snow will come.

[Bob Chill]

Don't feel like posting all the panels but the 18z gefs even stronger with the signal for a substantial precip event along strong frontal boundary leading into xmas. Similar to the op. 

What I don't like is ridging off coast so that could keep us on the wrong side. What I do like is expansive sprawling hp to the north showing on the mslp panels. CAD in play east of the apps.

These events are line walkers with happy weenies to the NW and sad wet weenies to the SE. Only a week to 10 days away from knowing where that line is. Lol. Lot's of possiblities as to how something like this could play out.

I could envision starting with rain and finishing with snow, ice, or both. Could easily be multiple waves drawn out over multiple days. In some ways the pattern reminds me of 13-14. There's probably going to be a lot to discuss over the next 2 weeks. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

No way it rains in late December with -EPO and -AO. Worst case scenario it's ice. 

[pasnownut]

22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Don't feel like posting all the panels but the 18z gefs even stronger with the signal for a substantial precip event along strong frontal boundary leading into xmas. Similar to the op. 

What I don't like is ridging off coast so that could keep us on the wrong side. What I do like is expansive sprawling hp to the north showing on the mslp panels. CAD in play east of the apps.

These events are line walkers with happy weenies to the NW and sad wet weenies to the SE. Only a week to 10 days away from knowing where that line is. Lol. Lot's of possiblities as to how something like this could play out.

I could envision starting with rain and finishing with snow, ice, or both. Could easily be multiple waves drawn out over multiple days. In some ways the pattern reminds me of 13-14. There's probably going to be a lot to discuss over the next 2 weeks. 

You’ve been a great guy to follow and we appreciate the input. Hope your right with “ lots to discuss”. I too feel that we at least have some stuff to watch in the coming weeks. So much better than last year no matter how the chips fall.

Nut. 

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said:

No way it rains in late December with -EPO and -AO. Worst case scenario it's ice. 

We apparently just lost the -AO on the ensembles it seems. Sorta surprised given the maps that are loaded with ridging around the Pole.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

 

[Bob Chill]

Numerical indices are calculated with pressure at 1000mb. A lot of low pressure is progged to pool up around the ao/nao domain in the med range. Hp builds back strong in the long range. Starting in the epo region and propagating poleward. 

Nao looks neutral or + through the long range though. I have a theory that the nao is usually positive during periods of a strong -epo. AO can be negative depending on the expanse of hp but having all 3 regions covered with hp doesn't seem like it can happen that easily. It would require hp to cover the entire arctic circle and beyond. Lol. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

This probably verifies as a negative NAO.

[CAPE]

18 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

We apparently just lost the -AO on the ensembles it seems. Sorta surprised given the maps that are loaded with ridging around the Pole.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

 

Looks briefly positive for a few days around the 18th, but I doubt it lasts more than a few days. You can see the lower MSLP anomaly north of GL on the GEFS.

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Numerical indices are calculated with pressure at 1000mb. A lot of low pressure is progged to pool up around the ao/nao domain in the med range. Hp builds back strong in the long range. Starting in the epo region and propagating poleward. 

Nao looks neutral or + through the long range though. I have a theory that the nao is usually positive during periods of a strong -epo. AO can be negative depending on the expanse of hp but having all 3 regions covered with hp doesn't seem like it can happen that easily. It would require hp to cover the entire arctic circle and beyond. Lol. 

Yeah,  I'm not worried.  But when I looked at it the day before,  it was really progged to tank from the current modest -ao. When Chuck mentioned it, I thought I'd see how it had changed, but I didn't expect such a sudden flip.

[Bob Chill]

27 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Yeah,  I'm not worried.  But when I looked at it the day before,  it was really progged to tank from the current modest -ao. When Chuck mentioned it, I thought I'd see how it had changed, but I didn't expect such a sudden flip.

My guess is the + period isn't going to last long. If it flips neg like ens are showing then things are progressing like other favorable winters in the AO dept. 

CPC analogs d11+ look pretty darn good dude. 4 out of the top 6 produced and 1960 was a near miss with freezing rain in the burbs. 62 and 93 were both white christmas'. 67 was a snow to rain deal but another close miss. Overall a very impressive list of analogs. Look at the correlation score. .93 is very high for d11+

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

My guess is the + period isn't going to last long. If it flips neg like ens are showing then things are progressive like other favorable winters in the AO dept. 

CPC analogs d11+ look pretty darn good dude. 4 out of the top 6 produced and 1960 was a near miss with freezing rain in the burbs. 62 and 93 were both white christmas'. 67 was a snow to rain deal but another close miss. Overall a very impressive list of analogs. Look at the correlation score. .93 is very high for d11+

Sick weenies think alike. I looked at that earlier and thought the only 2 winters that sucked were 58' & 07'. I'm about as psyched about a winter as I was in 02, when I knew a great one was on the way. 09' I had my doubts in the fall until 12/5. 

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Sick weenies think alike. I looked at that earlier and thought the only 2 winters that sucked were 58' & 07'. I'm about as psyched about a winter as I was in 02, when I knew a great one was on the way. 09' I had my doubts in the fall until 12/5. 

The funny thing is that even though 07 sucked, the one good Dec event is right inside the 3 day centered mean on the list.It is starting to have that feel of other good winters. We already backed into a good event literally inside of 72 hours. Now lots of signs are pointing to getting back into a good snow pattern after a relaxation that first looked like 4-5 days but may end up being 2-3 days tops. Still don't see a big storm pattern setting up anywhere on the horizon but the most important thing is at least being in the game anyways. 

13-14 had all kinds of long range signs of things breaking down but it kept getting pushed back while it kept snowing. lol. Hopefully this one goes the same way. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The funny thing is that even though 07 sucked, the one good Dec event is right inside the 3 day centered mean on the list.It is starting to have that feel of other good winters. We already backed into a good event literally inside of 72 hours. Now lots of signs are pointing to getting back into a good snow pattern after a relaxation that first looked like 4-5 days but may end up being 2-3 days tops. Still don't see a big storm pattern setting up anywhere on the horizon but the most important thing is at least being in the game anyways. 

13-14 had all kinds of long range signs of things breaking down but it kept getting pushed back while it kept snowing. lol. Hopefully this one goes the same way. 

Agree 100%

I haven't posted a word about it yet and I know that the usual skeptics will chime in,  but the CFS has had us with AN precip in January on every run (TT site) since like 11/26. It's now showing both February and March with AN precip too on the CFS site and TT, but they haven't been as consistent as the January forecast. Also,  its current weeklies are showing AN precip beginning with the week of 12/24 and lasting through almost 1/21.

I really think we may be wishing winter was over by the time February comes. I'm sure I'll be a sleep zombie by then. Lol

[Bob Chill]

I freekin hate snowmaps but this is the best way to show potential leading into the holiday...lol

Well over 50% of the members are showing snow on the ground on the 25th. Looks like the ens members are keying in on potential between the 22nd and 25th. 

Mean snow on 12.22

 

Mean snow on 12.25

 

 

For 12-15 day leads, a 1-2" jump in the mean is fairly significant. We need to collectively will a white christmas. They are rare as hell and this is one of the few years in recent memory where we're not staring at warm temps and/or rain at long leads. Still might happen but at least our hopes and dreams aren't killed already like in other years. 

[Cobalt]

0z GFS Has the Saturday event dump 2-3" South of DC

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I really think Dec 15-16 could be a few inch event. dry snow is so much better.

[RichmondTarHeel]

I’ll be spending Christmas in Richmond, so I’ll have to do some extra willing for us all to get a white Christmas! 

Last white Christmas I can remember was actually in 2010 at my sisters house in Winston Salem, NC. It was the day after Christmas I believe.  First time they had a white Christmas in over 60 years, or something like that.  

[WxUSAF]

Euro has a dusting fest for us this week.  3 for MBY. 

 

GEFS and EPS disagree in important ways going forward toward Christmas.  GEFS dumps a trough in the SW, which pulls the WAR back to more of a SE ridge and probably keeps the boundary to our north.  Can see that visually clearly on the last few GFS op runs.  EPS keeps the trough centered in the east, which keeps our temps below normal and probably keeps us closer to or north of the happy side of the gradient.  

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro has a dusting fest for us this week.  3 for MBY. 

 

GEFS and EPS disagree in important ways going forward toward Christmas.  GEFS dumps a trough in the SW, which pulls the WAR back to more of a SE ridge and probably keeps the boundary to our north.  Can see that visually clearly on the last few GFS op runs.  EPS keeps the trough centered in the east, which keeps our temps below normal and probably keeps us closer to or north of the happy side of the gradient.  

As I mentioned before in a deleted post GFS is quite warm leading into Christmas.  6z is mid upper 60's just sayin and not just in Florida son

[smokeybandit]

Low 70s on Christmas Eve?  Yeah, Mr GFS, you're on the naughty list.

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

As I mentioned before in a deleted post GFS is quite warm leading into Christmas.  6z is mid upper 60's just sayin and not just in Florida son

It’s two weeks away, so I won’t say for sure that we dont have yet another awful grinch torch around Christmas. But as of when you made the post and as of now, the best long range prediction system in the world says 60s will be hundreds of miles away at least.

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s two weeks away, so I won’t say for sure that we dont have yet another awful grinch torch around Christmas. But as of when you made the post and as of now, the best long range prediction system in the world says 60s will be hundreds of miles away at least.

That I'm not disagreeing with and last night's GFS was way colder. I just wanted you to make the warm go away...not my post lol

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

That I'm not disagreeing with and last night's GFS was way colder. I just wanted you to make the warm go away...not my post lol

Don’t blame me for either!

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Don’t blame me for either!

I will if I want to

[Eskimo Joe]

6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

That I'm not disagreeing with and last night's GFS was way colder. I just wanted you to make the warm go away...not my post lol

70s on Christmas would be terrible.   Hope to God that's wrong.  After last year, we all deserve a cold powder 6-10" Christmas miracle. 

[mitchnick]

GEPS is cold. Maybe colder than EPS. 2 against 1.

[Interstate]

23 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

70s on Christmas would be terrible.   Hope to God that's wrong.  After last year, we all deserve a cold powder 6-10" Christmas miracle. 

71 for Christmas Eve on the 6z run...lol

[Bob Chill]

I would normally totally disregard the gfs op in fantasy range but warmth and/or rain seems to be a thing around here during christmas. 

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I would normally totally disregard the gfs op in fantasy range but warmth and/or rain seems to be a thing around here during christmas. 

Well if it ends up being right, at least we are used to it.

[PhineasC]

Shorts on Christmas with the windows open and A/C kicking on is a MA tradition these days.