December 2017 Mid-Long Range Disco

[BristowWx]

28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, just so we're all on the same page....ice, sleet, or snow is completey acceptable weather for Xmas in my book. Basically anything other than rain or flip flops is serviceable. 

That Christmas map just made my day if we can get something like that on Xmas I would be willing to end winter in Feb.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

16 minutes ago, Goat_Fuente said:

Ive always wanted to play pond hockey in the middle of my street

I actually got to do that in 1993 or 1994 in nyc.  It was awesome. 

[Bob Chill]

14 minutes ago, Goat_Fuente said:

Ive always wanted to play pond hockey in the middle of my street

If we got a Montreal redux ice storm I would buy a dozen chain saws, 3 beater pickups and hire 10 people on the spot then take a year off. Lol. 

Jokes aside, we do seem to be heading for a period of increased risk of cad/ice in about 10 days or so. I'm seeing a lot of elongated sw-ne boundaries on the ens and ops the last 3-4 days. My initial thoughts were rain/snow dividing lines....kinda overlooked CAD/ice. Lol

[Bob Chill]

CAD sig on the gefs

 

Lots of moisture streaming up from the south to go with it  

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If we got a Montreal redux ice storm I would buy a dozen chain saws, 3 beater pickups and hire 10 people on the spot then take a year off. Lol. 

Jokes aside, we do seem to be heading for a period of increased risk of cad/ice in about 10 days or so. I'm seeing a lot of elongated sw-ne boundaries on the ens and ops the last 3-4 days. My initial thoughts were rain/snow dividing lines....kinda overlooked CAD/ice. Lol

CAD is something we don't completely suck at especially west of the fall line...but will it be 25F CAD or 35F?  To be continued.  But 70 shorts weather looking less likely. 

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, just so we're all on the same page....ice, sleet, or snow is completey acceptable weather for Xmas in my book. Basically anything other than rain or flip flops is serviceable. 

Yeah i just saw that.

i remember a sleet fest a few years back that had I81 a mess for days...

sleet to snow is best, as it packs it down and makes things fun for a while.

 

Nut

[Bob Chill]

Euro keeps the little stripe of hope going on thurs. Need to squeeze and inch out of the deal and early Dec will go down as fairly epic. lol

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro keeps the little stripe of hope going on thurs. Need to squeeze and inch out of the deal and early Dec will go down as fairly epic. lol

Day 6 is looking interesting now too, but may be too warm.

[midatlanticweather]

40 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If we got a Montreal redux ice storm I would buy a dozen chain saws, 3 beater pickups and hire 10 people on the spot then take a year off. Lol. 

Jokes aside, we do seem to be heading for a period of increased risk of cad/ice in about 10 days or so. I'm seeing a lot of elongated sw-ne boundaries on the ens and ops the last 3-4 days. My initial thoughts were rain/snow dividing lines....kinda overlooked CAD/ice. Lol

I have been expecting an icy period as well with such heavy cold and flatter waves. Hopefully they trend to snowy but elongated overrunning with shallow cold air damming just seems fitting. Crazy that yesterday was a clean snow hit.. 

[RDM]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, just so we're all on the same page....ice, sleet, or snow is completey acceptable weather for Xmas in my book. Basically anything other than rain or flip flops is serviceable. 

Fully agree.  Anything is ok for Christmas as long as it denotes winter weather.  That excludes warmth and rain.  Even if it bounces it's better than rain (sleet or pellets).  Departed WMA to move to Thailand at the trail end of the sleet fest on Valentine's day 2007 with my family and tons of luggage.  Will never forget that mess at the hotel, on the roads and at IAD.  Had the makings of a bad movie, if not a comical one for just about anything that could go wrong did...

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Day 6 is looking interesting now too, but may be too warm.

Streams just miss each other. Soutern feature stays cut off. Pulls these 2 together and interesting things can happen. It's a new twist with little support but worth watching. Beyond that event things go warm for a few days. Would be nice to get a phase and a last hurrah before a brief relax

[Bob Chill]

GEFS has different ways of getting there but a good # of light events for late this week

 

[BristowWx]

30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Streams just miss each other. Soutern feature stays cut off. Pulls these 2 together and interesting things can happen. It's a new twist with little support but worth watching. Beyond that event things go warm for a few days. Would be nice to get a phase and a last hurrah before a brief relax

I do hope that brief relax is really brief.  Looking forward to the EPS today

[Cobalt]

Just now, BristowWx said:

I do hope that brief relax is really brief.  Looking forward to the EPS today

Euro says return the cold, and brings it back on the 20th

It seems like the ensembles do the same thing, and have a brief return to normal temps following that, and then the pattern fully reloads just in time for Christmas

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Euro says return the cold, and brings it back on the 20th

It seems like the ensembles do the same thing, and have a brief return to normal temps following that, and then the pattern fully reloads just in time for Christmas

Thank you and thanks for all your contributions to the board you’ve been Hitting it hard

[MillvilleWx]

CAD sig on the gefs



 

Lots of moisture streaming up from the south to go with it  

In the snow prediction thread, I did say/predict there would be one memorable ice storm for the region. Thought some blocking would hold in a nice high with multiple attacking waves. Recipe for ice storms around here. Or a phase gone wrong attacking a very shallow arctic airmass with 1040+ HP moving into GL. Would be nuts if GFS verified.


.

[NorthArlington101]

Man, 33/50 (+1 Control) have some kind of snow again (.1"+) between now-12z Wednesday. Like 20 of those have something worth a "meh", which IMO is .5" or more in part of the region.  Pretty sure most come from some sort of weak clipper.

Mean also jumps on Thursday FWIW, but its kinda hard to measure given the sporadic activity before then. Based off rough calculations using the same, "is it worth a meh" method, about 23 have something in the area.

Figured it was worth tossing out there. 

[Cobalt]

32 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Thank you and thanks for all your contributions to the board you’ve been Hitting it hard

Thanks! It's especially easier to be posting on this board when there are more chances of snow earlier in the year. Not really a deal breaker if we miss some snow events early in this month, but it would be amazing if we do get them. Even mood flakes seem great given the time of the year.

The EPS seems to have 2 small events Fri/Saturday

1st wave is what looks like a clipper, and this seems like a potential chance of 0.5" or more. Pretty weak, but there's the potential

2nd wave pulls a weak event up the coast, which could be widespread 0.5" from DC to Boston

12z Euro actually has a pretty decent event from Philly to SE Mass, and if the storm strengthens soon enough, we could get in on that snow. Still 5 days away

[BristowWx]

11 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Thanks! It's especially easier to be posting on this board when there are more chances of snow earlier in the year. Not really a deal breaker if we miss some snow events early in this month, but it would be amazing if we do get them. Even mood flakes seem great given the time of the year.

The EPS seems to have 2 small events Fri/Saturday

1st wave is what looks like a clipper, and this seems like a potential chance of 0.5" or more. Pretty weak, but there's the potential

2nd wave pulls a weak event up the coast, which could be widespread 0.5" from DC to Boston

12z Euro actually has a pretty decent event from Philly to SE Mass, and if the storm strengthens soon enough, we could get in on that snow. Still 5 days away

That’s funny. A wide spread half inch. Totally true but just sounds funny as a headline.  Some of the schools would close on that threat.

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

That’s funny. A wide spread half inch. Totally true but just sounds funny as a headline.  Some of the schools would close on that threat.

The early week potential isn't really much potential at all. Low passes well to the north and any snow would be waa on return flow. Going back through previous events like that show little promise. Especially for accumulation. Northern tier may get dusted but the track really sucks for our area. Snow maps are low on the list of panels to look at IRT potential. Especially with weak events. We generally only get accum snow with dry NS systems when the low tracks through VA or northern NC. 

The later week deal is starting to show some consensus for a better track. Not much room to amplify but mean track through southern WV and off the coast is much more appealing. For now it looks pretty moisture starved with little opportunity to amplify but it's an attractive mean track for now. Still a lot of days ahead for things to move all over the place. 

 

The buzzsaw to the north is the big fly in the ointment. Mean h5 shows no chance for amplification so even with the mean track, any precip would be light and localized. Things can certainly change but sitting 4-5 days out and seeing these panels isn't very inspiring. 

 

[Bob Chill]

At least our fear of a mild Christmas is fading fast. We can all agree that this is an acceptable mean temp anom panel for opening presents. 

[Cobalt]

 

[mitchnick]

Not that it has a whole lot to do with snow,  but as bad as last year was and as perpetual as the GEPS showed above (or way above) normal temps for us in the long range,  this 16-day temp map is pure nirvana.

 

[CAPE]

48 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

 

Lol @ looking "wonderful for a potential white Christmas". Come on. Ok yeah, its not a blowtorch pattern. Duh.

A trough in the east does not equal great potential for a white Christmas. Twitter hypsters are awful.

[Cobalt]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Lol @ looking "wonderful for a potential white Christmas". Come on. Ok yeah, its not a blowtorch pattern. Duh.

A trough in the east does not equal great potential for a white Christmas. Twitter hypsters are awful.

Yeah, I'm quite skeptical on that part as well. Even if we have cold, there's a really small chance we'll get snow. We're not in Buffalo or any other place that where it's cold, there's snow. That would kinda defeat the purpose of forums like these where we're looking for snow chances. 

[rcflyermd68]

youre skepyical of a dr in meteorology okay

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, rcflyermd68 said:

youre skepyical of a dr in meteorology okay

Dude..

[smokeybandit]

1 minute ago, rcflyermd68 said:

youre skepyical of a dr in meteorology okay

Very aleet comment.

[PDIII]

4 minutes ago, rcflyermd68 said:

youre skepyical of a dr in meteorology okay

Sometimes people just want to hate.. that's all.

[87storms]

all he said was "potential", so maybe he just means it's a great setup for a "possibility" of snow.  who knows.

i think in this area you gotta just track the cold.  that's the hard part for us.  if you look at the qpf from dec - feb...if i remember correctly...we average like 8-9" of liquid.  so if this was marquette, just do the math.  last year i don't even think we had a winter.  this year...much better start.