nw baltimore wx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 We've entered Bizarro World when the most reasonable post of the morning belongs to Ji. But yes, nice look for our Christmas Eve storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: With Pacific and Atlantic blocking showing up on some of the GEFS members in the Day 12-15 period and also on the EPS, the relaxation of the pattern could prove temporary. 2 hours ago, Ji said: people should relax after seeing the d11-15 Yep and yep. Long range is always an educated guess at best. But so long as we keep seeing a generally favorable AO or NAO or EPO showing up we have a shot at cold/snow. The nina thing was driving me nuts. Yes if we just average them all together January is warm. But January 96,2000,2001, and 2011 would say not so fast. It's not that simple. Right now the warm up looks like a reload not a permanent pattern shift. That's just a guess based on how it looks to be evolving on the long range guidance and the fact the AO and epo seem to want to stay helpful. But I could be wrong. Won't be the first or last time. Too many people making declarative statements about the long range based on no solid objective evidence. Yea it could go warm the rest of winter. And pigs could fly out of my arse. But luckily I see no compelling evidence that either of those things will happen att. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yep and yep. Long range is always an educated guess at best. But so long as we keep seeing a generally favorable AO or NAO or EPO showing up we have a shot at cold/snow. The nina thing was driving me nuts. Yes if we just average them all together January is warm. But January 96,2000,2001, and 2011 would say not so fast. It's not that simple. Right now the warm up looks like a reload not a permanent pattern shift. That's just a guess based on how it looks to be evolving on the long range guidance and the fact the AO and epo seem to want to stay helpful. But I could be wrong. Won't be the first or last time. Too many people making declarative statements about the long range based on no solid objective evidence. Yea it could go warm the rest of winter. And pigs could fly out of my arse. But luckily I see no compelling evidence that either of those things will happen att. Granted I haven't been following it closely the last week or so but nothing whatsoever that I have seen has thrown up a red flag. Not sure why there are some panicking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Yep and yep. Long range is always an educated guess at best. But so long as we keep seeing a generally favorable AO or NAO or EPO showing up we have a shot at cold/snow. The nina thing was driving me nuts. Yes if we just average them all together January is warm. But January 96,2000,2001, and 2011 would say not so fast. It's not that simple. Right now the warm up looks like a reload not a permanent pattern shift. That's just a guess based on how it looks to be evolving on the long range guidance and the fact the AO and epo seem to want to stay helpful. But I could be wrong. Won't be the first or last time. Too many people making declarative statements about the long range based on no solid objective evidence. Yea it could go warm the rest of winter. And pigs could fly out of my arse. But luckily I see no compelling evidence that either of those things will happen att. The straight La-Nina analysis is also flawed in my mind because last time I checked it was east based, rather then central or basin wide. I would think that should give us some help in the tropical forcing piece of the LR forecasting game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 6 hours ago, Cobalt said: Euro has what looks like a clipper system incoming next Friday will be interesting to see what future models have regarding it Most of the euro ensemble members take that low north of us rather than south like the euro. Doesn't mean the Euro can't or won't happen just means the north of us track is probably more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 51 minutes ago, usedtobe said: Most of the euro ensemble members take that low north of us rather than south like the euro. Doesn't mean the Euro can't or won't happen just means the north of us track is probably more likely. Odd you say that because the mean is south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Christmas eve miracle on the gfs Fantasy stuff aside, it does look like the relax will be brief and things could very well go back to wintry right before Christmas. Even with the relax there is cold lurking to the north the whole time so it's not a shutout pattern. A flawed event or pure luck is possible after any cold front down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Christmas eve miracle on the gfs Fantasy stuff aside, it does look like the relax will be brief and things could very well go back to wintry right before Christmas. Even with the relax there is cold lurking to the north the whole time so it's not a shutout pattern. A flawed event or pure luck is possible after any cold front down the line. Yup. Cold until Saturday/Sunday, brief 4-5 day warmup, and then back into the ice box it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Yup. Cold until Saturday/Sunday, brief 4-5 day warmup, and then back into the ice box it seems It's a festivus miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 39 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Christmas eve miracle on the gfs Fantasy stuff aside, it does look like the relax will be brief and things could very well go back to wintry right before Christmas. Even with the relax there is cold lurking to the north the whole time so it's not a shutout pattern. A flawed event or pure luck is possible after any cold front down the line. Bob, I have absolutely no doubt in my mind that we have plenty of opportunities this year and plenty of successes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 GEFS Looks colder through D 10-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 It usually takes some event, a MJO wave or zonal wind burst in the tropics, retrograding NAO, Stratospheric warming, to get an Alaska ridge like the long term models are showing. None of that occurring, 11-15D is likely a warm scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2017 Author Share Posted December 9, 2017 Euro takes the Friday event south of us again. Not much precip though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Euro Friday Event: I see decent potential of an inch for DC, especially since the ensembles lend some support. Still 6 days out though, but I guess the Euro showing snow 2 times in a row is consistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Euro also shows cold blast on the Tuesday before Christmas. Looks like the reload of that pattern might stick with us towards New Years day. I think we have a 15-20% chance of snow on the ground on Christmas day (just a guess) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Christmas eve miracle on the gfs Fantasy stuff aside, it does look like the relax will be brief and things could very well go back to wintry right before Christmas. Even with the relax there is cold lurking to the north the whole time so it's not a shutout pattern. A flawed event or pure luck is possible after any cold front down the line. I kind of like the look long term for snow chances. There seems to be some attempt at resistance from a SE ridge and WAR but with a favorable epo and AO that could work. I would be more worried we end up on the wrong side of the gradient if the AO wasn't cooperative but in 2014 we managed to win even without that. We could still not score but it's a pattern that would offer chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: Bob, I have absolutely no doubt in my mind that we have plenty of opportunities this year and plenty of successes. I'm starting to agree with you. And if it goes down as a generally cold and snowy winter you definitely get credit for saying so and sticking with it even when most of us were bearish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Eps looks great for the holiday. Has the look of a potential event on xmas eve but hard to say if a cold or warm one. Christmas should feel like winter if these trends hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 58 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm starting to agree with you. And if it goes down as a generally cold and snowy winter you definitely get credit for saying so and sticking with it even when most of us were bearish. As I get older, my head gets harder. That's all. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 I'm starting to doubt that the relaxation verifies. I would say 4 days of above to well normal in a row qualifies as a relaxation. That prospect is fading fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm starting to doubt that the relaxation verifies. I would say 4 days of above to well normal in a row qualifies as a relaxation. That prospect is fading fast. I think we get a few days of average to a bit above average then it snaps back. That could qualify as a relax after a week of cold. But the idea we're heading into a prolonged warm stretch is fading. I think we generally agree on how things look right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 What is the NWS seeing this Monday?This is slight Winter Storm risk for MON-MON night by the way http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 36 minutes ago, Cobalt said: What is the NWS seeing this Monday?This is slight Winter Storm risk for MON-MON night by the way http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter Snowfown...it’s to be expected. Bring that 24 Dec storm home...do it man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 I think it went back to green. Snow is like crack! I cannot get enough. Let's do this again but triple the results please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Because it's in range...and a very important weather event that almost never happens...the gefs and eps are showing a pretty strong precip signal around the 24th-25th. Both ens bring up a precip event from the south during the general period. Right now it looks like rain is favored but that can easily change. 18z gefs had a couple Christmas miracle solutions. Would be nothing short of amazing to long range track a holiday snow event. And until we're definitely out, we're maybe in. Beyond Christmas looks like a return to a similar pattern were in now but way too far out to pick it apart. Late next week is the only chance at more snow that I'm seeing right now and it would be light if it happens. Worth keeping an eye on but like with all NS deals, very hard to trust anything at longer leads. Beyond late week looks like a temporary moderation of temps but the 12z eps made me rethink how much of a moderation and for how long. We should have a good handle on it by this time next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 One thing that is catching my eye with how the end of the month may play out is the mjo forecast. Both the eps and gefs take a trip towards the promised land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Next medium range event seems to be this coming Friday. GFS is close, and the Euro has shown us getting hit by it twice in a row now. I think it's on the table to possibly see a quick 1-3, maybe 3-5 if it materializes. Still too far to even know if there will be precip then, but maybe 10-20% chance of 1-3" during that timeframe. Will be looking through EPS and GEFS soon, but it's there. Tuesday/Wednesday looks like nothing from what I've seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Next medium range event seems to be this coming Friday. GFS is close, and the Euro has shown us getting hit by it twice in a row now. I think it's on the table to possibly see a quick 1-3, maybe 3-5 if it materializes. Still too far to be even certain, but maybe 10-20% chance of 1-3" during that timeframe. Will be looking through EPS and GEFS soon, but it's there. Tuesday/Wednesday looks like nothing from what I've seen There are a couple of shortwaves to keep an eye on. The one for early Saturday is pretty sharp and takes a nice pass to our south. Progressive flow but maybe we can get some surface development at the right time and score a light event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 27 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Next medium range event seems to be this coming Friday. GFS is close, and the Euro has shown us getting hit by it twice in a row now. I think it's on the table to possibly see a quick 1-3, maybe 3-5 if it materializes. Still too far to be even certain, but maybe 10-20% chance of 1-3" during that timeframe. Will be looking through EPS and GEFS soon, but it's there. Tuesday/Wednesday looks like nothing from what I've seen Haha, I’ll give you high marks for optimism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 And now in GFS fantasy land Boxing Day Storm 2, Electric Boogaloo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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