December 2017 Mid-Long Range Disco

[Bob Chill]

Cape, how do the 2 prior panels look? Mean panel shows the low anomaly south of us but that doesn't mean a precip event is happening. I'm curious if the ens are actually tracking slp embedded in the flow south of us or if it's all developing off the coast. We don't have much room looking at h5. To get even a modest event we would need a developed low to pass through VA. If all the good stuff is happening to the east of us then it's a nonevent

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

These NS deals are going to drive us crazy. Heck, the upcoming southern wave is driving us crazy....lol

 

I really like this EPS panel. I can envision where we are going. With the PNA ridge off the coast it will allow a much better chance at a half decent track with NS energy. It's also supportive of a southern track. This is also a very good cold loading pattern for all of Canada and not just the eastern half. This type of pattern comes with higher risk of a NW track in our neck but it's also a much better look for larger precip events in general. 

Not bad. Verbatim it certainly could work for a modest/overrunning type deal. Also could be cutter city with an amped s/w, with no NA ridging to speak of. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, lol. Location x 3. Front end thump stuff works out much better for places west of the cities.

[CAPE]

23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Cape, how do the 2 prior panels look? Mean panel shows the low anomaly south of us but that doesn't mean a precip event is happening. I'm curious if the ens are actually tracking slp embedded in the flow south of us or if it's all developing off the coast. We don't have much room looking at h5. To get even a modest event we would need a developed low to pass through VA. If all the good stuff is happening to the east of us then it's a nonevent

Low pressure passes over/just south of us in VA. It looks like any meaningful precip would occur as a result of coastal development for sure. And mostly just to our NE of course. Verbatim DE and eastern NJ would get in on it(can clearly see this on the precip/snowfall mean). Still some work to be done, but there has been incremental improvement over that past 3 runs, so I am interested.

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Low pressure passes over/just south of us in VA. It looks like any meaningful precip would occur as a result of coastal development for sure. And mostly just to our NE of course. Verbatim DE and eastern NJ would get in on it(can clearly see this on the precip/snowfall mean). Still some work to be done, but there has been incremental improvement over that past 3 runs, so I am interested.

I've been a cheap ass this year and haven't gotten wxbell. lol. Are there distinct low centers taking a favorable track? If so, what is the range of strength? A lot would have to go right to get meaningful precip. Not a huge fan of the h5 setup but if there are some good tracks w/ decent strength it would up my interest level. 

[CAPE]

Here is the panel before the one I posted earlier..

 

[frd]

I heard the weeklies are cold through mid January , can anyone verify that. 

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, frd said:

I heard the weeklies are cold through mid January , can anyone verify that. 

Who did you hear it from?  Red tagger?  

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, frd said:

I heard the weeklies are cold through mid January , can anyone verify that. 

Things start to reshuffle end of the first week out west. PNA ridge breaks down. After that, it looks pretty changeable. For the east coast- some ridging at times, overall 850 temps are mostly avg to above avg. Too far out to really analyze beyond that.

[frd]

7 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Who did you hear it from?  Red tagger?  

Well based on CAPE's reponse evidently not a good source .

[WVclimo]

3 minutes ago, frd said:

Well based on CAPE's reponse evidently not a good source .

Some more discussion of the weeklies about halfway down the page at this link:

http://www.phillywx.com/topic/894-cfs-ggem-jma-and-euro-weeklies-thread/?page=22

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, frd said:

Well based on CAPE's reponse evidently not a good source .

Its not awful by any measure, but I would certainly not characterize it as cold through mid month. Still looks good up top in general, -AO and -NAO at times. Biggest change is in NPAC- seeing more of a trough in the NW and ridge back towards the Aleutians.

[frd]

19 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Its not awful by any measure, but I would certainly not characterize it as cold through mid month. Still looks good up top in general, -AO and -NAO at times. Biggest change is in NPAC- seeing more of a trough in the NW and ridge back towards the Aleutians.

Thanks, appreciate it .

[leo2000]

5 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

These NS deals are going to drive us crazy. Heck, the upcoming southern wave is driving us crazy....lol

 

I really like this EPS panel. I can envision where we are going. With the PNA ridge off the coast it will allow a much better chance at a half decent track with NS energy. It's also supportive of a southern track. This is also a very good cold loading pattern for all of Canada and not just the eastern half. This type of pattern comes with higher risk of a NW track in our neck but it's also a much better look for larger precip events in general. 

Hi Bil, what is your opinion of those rooting for a La Nina like pattern with a negative PNA and positive EPO? from the Nino like pattern we currently are going to get. Seems the EPS teleconnections show the EPO going positive in the long range. 

[psuhoffman]

Overnight runs want to reload the EPO and imply we go back into a Cold pattern probably later in the month. 

[WxUSAF]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Overnight runs want to reload the EPO and imply we go back into a Cold pattern probably later in the month. 

EPS has been bouncing around a lot. I like the look of the GEFS much more  as it keeeps the SE ridge at bay.

[frd]

21 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

EPS has been bouncing around a lot. I like the look of the GEFS much more  as it keeeps the SE ridge at bay.

Well, we seem to lose the - NAO on the EPS moving forward , so next week looks drab...... but seeing maybe more potential to a negative NAO later in the month , maybe we indeed get something end of the month .  I know here we need the - AO more than the - NAO,  but I feel to get a big one this year we need that - NAO to slow and deepen East Coast storms that would hit and favor our area vs NE.  

Any thoughts on that ?

  

[Scraff]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Overnight runs want to reload the EPO and imply we go back into a Cold pattern probably later in the month. 

Saw Judah Cohen in Twitter talking about another load and revisit of the polar vortex. Probably related I’ll guess. ;-) 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Ummm.. yikes. What an awesome trend.

[Neblizzard]

1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck said:

Ummm.. yikes. What an awesome trend.

Sure is before the reload.   The data points strongly to the -EPO coming back.  Enjoy your warm bias 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I don't see why it would, pattern is evolving like many La Nina's since 1998. It's almost default.

[psuhoffman]

49 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said:

I don't see why it would, pattern is evolving like many La Nina's since 1998. It's almost default.

What years would that be other then 2005/6?  

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

La Nina's this millenium

December cold happens Dec 1-15

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck said:

La Nina's this millenium

December cold happens Dec 1-15

So you just lump all Ninas together regardless of QBO/AO/PDO/EPO and a number of other factors. They are all the same?  You should let ncep know you cracked the code. Just use enso to predict seasonal 100% and disregard everything else. 

I am not going to sit here and pretend I know it's going to stay cold. But I'm not going to let anyone else use one factor to declare we know it will flip warm in January like 2006 when it could stay cold like January 2000 (you conveniently left that one out) or 2001 or 2011. Most of your other analogs were train wrecks in December too so not very relevant to predicting a flip warm. And you arbitrarily use the year 2000 as some delinileation as if the atmosphere cares what mellenium it is. So January 1996 conveniently doesn't count.

My point is this. Yea it could flip warm. But using all ninas and a broad brushed mean that includes drastically different seasons is a crappy justification to declare it will flip warm. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

It may not even be La Nina's, but there is a definite pattern to the 2000s of Dec 5 or early December being cold, then warming up after. Nothing is really different from all these years. LR models will verify with well above average temps after about the 17th.

[Prestige Worldwide]

43 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said:

It may not even be La Nina's, but there is a definite pattern to the 2000s of Dec 5 or early December being cold, then warming up after. Nothing is really different from all these years. LR models will verify with well above average temps after about the 17th.

So is winter over after mid December?  Or does it comeback in January?

[Cobalt]

Just now, Prestige Worldwide said:

So is winter over after mid December?  Or does it comeback in January?

If I were to guess, there will be a warmup in early-mid January, and we will have a couple bouts of colder weather in late Jan/Feb. Just like in some winters, warm patterns stick around for a while, but then go to cold, such as 14-15. In 14-15's case, November was cold, December was warm, January was cold, Feb was freezing. Too early to tell

[Yeoman]

If I were to guess, there will be a warmup in early-mid January, and we will have a couple bouts of colder weather in late Jan/Feb. Just like in some winters, warm patterns stick around for a while, but then go to cold, such as 14-15. In 14-15's case, November was cold, December was warm, January was cold, Feb was freezing. Too early to tell

Thanks, Cobalt!


. Pro

[donsutherland1]

6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

So you just lump all Ninas together regardless of QBO/AO/PDO/EPO and a number of other factors. They are all the same?  You should let ncep know you cracked the code. Just use enso to predict seasonal 100% and disregard everything else. 

I am not going to sit here and pretend I know it's going to stay cold. But I'm not going to let anyone else use one factor to declare we know it will flip warm in January like 2006 when it could stay cold like January 2000 (you conveniently left that one out) or 2001 or 2011. Most of your other analogs were train wrecks in December too so not very relevant to predicting a flip warm. And you arbitrarily use the year 2000 as some delinileation as if the atmosphere cares what mellenium it is. So January 1996 conveniently doesn't count.

My point is this. Yea it could flip warm. But using all ninas and a broad brushed mean that includes drastically different seasons is a crappy justification to declare it will flip warm. 

With Pacific and Atlantic blocking showing up on some of the GEFS members in the Day 12-15 period and also on the EPS, the relaxation of the pattern could prove temporary. 

[Cobalt]

Euro has what looks like a clipper system incoming next Friday

will be interesting to see what future models have regarding it

[Ji]

people should relax after seeing the d11-15