December 2017 Mid-Long Range Disco

[clskinsfan]

13 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

 

I actually don't like that panel too much for precipitation prospect. Storm track is the dakota's/MN. Pretty much what were seeing right now.

 

Hopefully the PNA ridge retro's at times and give us a better shot at system that can tap the gulf or phase with something in the southern stream. Or simply get a chance to amplify to the west of us anywhere. The EPS panel looks cold/dry/boring for our area. 

Oops. I see Bob beat me to it. And of course with a much better explanation than me

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don't like the overnight gefs/EPS runs that much. Both went the wrong way. Neither looks awful. They degraded into a mediocre look towards the end. Certainly not anything hostile like last year but nothing exciting either. 

Yeah quite a change from previous runs, esp out west, but also some relaxation up top. Mostly days 10-13 on the EPS, then it seems to get better at the end. Nothing I am going to worry about at this point.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Yeah quite a change from previous runs, esp out west, but also some relaxation up top. Mostly days 10-13 on the EPS, then it seems to get better at the end. Nothing I am going to worry about at this point.

Proof that epic teleconnections dont always produce. I will take my chances during the relax/reload of the pattern with the gradient look, tho typically in a Nina our respective regions usually (not always) end up on the wrong side. Given the NAO forecast goes to pooh in the LR, I would assume we are going to fall on the wrong side again, but that's a little ways out there still. We saw how the ens fell apart with the epic pattern look rather quickly....maybe we can catch a break in the opposite direction this time? This may end up being a December to forget when all is said and done though.

[CAPE]

21 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I think most know it'll be a heartbreaker.  It's December.   What does it show?

Its a close miss on the op, but seems to be heading in the right direction.

[frd]

59 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said:

A single member goes -6

Thats yesterdays .

Today's looking not so good. Heading back to positive. I believe we are not going to score this December. It is either too dry or climo. You only score in December in a Nino year, that's my thought.  

 

[poolz1]

15 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Looks cold and dry to me. Look at the Northern jet. Not really a great storm track for our area. 

I def see where both you and Bob are coming from and dont necessarily disagree...I guess I see it a little differently.  It is an ensemble mean in the long range.  The chances are that the centers of the positives and negatives will not end up in the exact location shown on the mean.  It is a colder than normal look and I see it as opportunity for something get under us and produce... After all, looks like the one below held almost zero opportunity.

[psuhoffman]

Before my negative post earlier starts a mass exodus to the panic room, I am not overreacting to one run.  Especially when that one run isn't even that bad.  We're simply looking at a mediocre look vs a good one.  Its not a disaster and certainly not a pattern that I would say is a shutout one.  I wouldn't be shocked even if that look was correct if we lucked into something.  That's how a lot of our snow comes.  Plus, things are going to shift some.  The guidance won't be 100 percent right from 10-15 days.  So slight shifts in our favor could make that mediocre look good again.  Of course a trend in the wrong way could make the mediocre look bad.  But one run is not enough to say there is a bad trend. 

Lastly, its way too early for some of the declarative type statements about the winter going around by a FEW people.  Its early December.  December climo isn't very good here anyways.  Not getting snow before xmas doesn't really tell us all that much.  Does it reduce the odds of a blockbuster 1996/2003/2010/2014 type winter, yea.  There is good evidence to support that idea that our absolute elite snowfall years usually show themselves early with a penchant to just "want" to snow.  But that doesn't mean we cant have a good year.  Many of our 2nd tier snowfall winters didn't show themselves until after the holidays.  And even if we only get an average or slightly below average winter, it doesn't mean we cant get a good period with some solid snow within an overall crappy winter and a LOT of years like that didn't start until January.  So this "if it doesn't snow in the next week the winter is showing itself" stuff is over the top.  That is unless you were really thinking we were getting a 1996/2010 type thing but given what we know about the overall pattern this year and nina was a bit unrealistic.  Getting a solid/good year is much more realistic and still definitely on the table given the fact the AO seems to want to cooperate and even on the latest runs shows no sign of flipping to the raging pile of +AO crap we have dealt with most of the last several winters. 

[Bob Chill]

GFS figured out how to squeeze a light event out of the NS down the line. Pretty tenuous with waa precip embedded in complicated NS flow but it's there nonetheless. 

 

[rcflyermd68]

continues current pattern of little to no precpitation

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, rcflyermd68 said:

continues current pattern of little to no precpitation

but at least it gave you a reason to say the exact same thing again

[frd]

23 minutes ago, rcflyermd68 said:

continues current pattern of little to no precpitation

The Euro weeklies show the next couple of weeks are very dry, sure it has snowed in rather dry weather patterns, but as for a big dog, or a significant precip event that would seem unlikely until later in the month.  

[rcflyermd68]

by latest gfs run it appears we may break the current streak certainly hope so

[Prestige Worldwide]

winter cancel?  The market has eliminated any risk of a cold surprise. How bad and long is this modeled relaxation?

[BristowWx]

8 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

winter cancel?  The market has eliminated any risk of a cold surprise. How bad and long is this modeled relaxation?

meh...I put no stock in anything LR now and focus on short/mid range.  If this 8/9 deal works out it shows you just never know so why sweat it.  But the Euro hasn't spoken yet so I am keeping my emotion in check.

[eurojosh]

Euro seems to bring the clipper under us at 120.  Not clear if precip is eaten by the mountains as per last few runs - does anyone have precip maps?

[Ji]

45 minutes ago, eurojosh said:

Euro seems to bring the clipper under us at 120.  Not clear if precip is eaten by the mountains as per last few runs - does anyone have precip maps?

it gives us accumulating snow....not much but its not nothing

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

it gives us accumulating snow....not much but its not nothing

Just like my last post in banter...if it snows on Sat then Tues is a lock. 

[midatlanticweather]

Hear European goes zonal in the long range. What is the word? 

[Ji]

Eps is not out yet

[mattie g]

9 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Hear European goes zonal in the long range. What is the word? 

Looks like the PNA relaxes a bit at about D10 on the EPS, but we still have the AO. May present a good shot for us.

Edit: That's the 0z EPS.

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Hear European goes zonal in the long range. What is the word? 

If we could score Saturday and Tuesday and we lose the pattern for a bit after that, that's not bad really.

I know this is no 09/10, but recall how everything went down the terlot after the Dec. blizzard until the last day or 2 of January. That's just the way we do it around here, except for the rare gems like 13/14.

[Bob Chill]

19 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

If we could score Saturday and Tuesday and we lose the pattern for a bit after that, that's not bad really.

I know this is no 09/10, but recall how everything went down the terlot after the Dec. blizzard until the last day or 2 of January. That's just the way we do it around here, except for the rare gems like 13/14.

EPS made a nice jump south with the Tuesday deal. Still not a very good setup for us either way because even if LP tracked south it would still be fairly weak until it gets out over the ocean and by then it's too late. SNE might get crushed next week. It's a great setup for them. Could end up being a half decent light event for us as well. 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS made a nice jump south with the Tuesday deal. Still not a very good setup for us either way because even if LP tracked south it would still be fairly weak until it gets out over the ocean and by then it's too late. SNE might get crushed next week. It's a great setup for them. Could end up being a half decent light event for us as well. 

The key for us, in my weenie mind, is to score with the opportunities that we have. If a light event is the best we can do under the circumstances, I'm good with that. It's when we have a moisture monster off the coast like on Saturday and just miss is when I get frustrated.

[frd]

42 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS made a nice jump south with the Tuesday deal. Still not a very good setup for us either way because even if LP tracked south it would still be fairly weak until it gets out over the ocean and by then it's too late. SNE might get crushed next week. It's a great setup for them. Could end up being a half decent light event for us as well. 

Bob thats a crazy negative anomaly on the EPS , on the 13th , could is trend further South , impressive  - 400 anomaly at 500 . That could be a huge snow event for someone. Also have too think the implications of this next system on that as well. only 144 hours away. 

[Bob Chill]

50 minutes ago, frd said:

Bob thats a crazy negative anomaly on the EPS , on the 13th , could is trend further South , impressive  - 400 anomaly at 500 . That could be a huge snow event for someone. Also have too think the implications of this next system on that as well. only 144 hours away. 

These NS deals are going to drive us crazy. Heck, the upcoming southern wave is driving us crazy....lol

 

I really like this EPS panel. I can envision where we are going. With the PNA ridge off the coast it will allow a much better chance at a half decent track with NS energy. It's also supportive of a southern track. This is also a very good cold loading pattern for all of Canada and not just the eastern half. This type of pattern comes with higher risk of a NW track in our neck but it's also a much better look for larger precip events in general. 

[frd]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

These NS deals are going to drive us crazy. Heck, the upcoming southern wave is driving us crazy....lol

 

I really like this EPS panel. I can envision where we are going. With the PNA ridge off the coast it will allow a much better chance at a half decent track with NS energy. It's also supportive of a southern track. This is also a very good cold loading pattern for all of Canada and not just the eastern half. This type of pattern comes with higher risk of a NW track in our neck but it's also a much better look for larger precip events in general. 

Bob I heard more than a few top mets talk about a negative NAO at this time ( later December ) but looking here on the EPS not there . Some where saying a - NAO would develop and then a relax , leading to a  Heather A event , maybe even a KU somewhere in the window of 12/22 to 1/10 /18. Maybe too early to tell .    

[frd]

I am sure there is going to be a huge blast of cold air the weekend of the 16 th . I imagine the cyclone depicted is the storm the EPS has for hour 144 off the East coast 

 

 

[Bob Chill]

11 minutes ago, frd said:

Bob I heard more than a few top mets talk about a negative NAO at this time ( later December ) but looking here on the EPS not there . Some where saying a - NAO would develop and then a relax , leading to a  Heather A event , maybe even a KU somewhere in the window of 12/22 to 1/10 /18. Maybe too early to tell .    

The -NAO never really got going in a classic form so I don't think the door is open for an Archambault event. The big storm that may hit the NE next week appears to be the catalyst to flipping to a neutral or +NAO. The EPS is showing a +NAO on the means coming up. The overall longwave pattern is still half decent regardless. I don't get too hung up on the NAO. Our money (or snow) in the bank indicator is the AO. That will flex up and down but looks to stay negative for the foreseeable future. 

[frd]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The -NAO never really got going in a classic form so I don't think the door is open for an Archambault event. The big storm that may hit the NE next week appears to be the catalyst to flipping to a neutral or +NAO. The EPS is showing a +NAO on the means coming up. The overall longwave pattern is still half decent regardless. I don't get too hung up on the NAO. Our money (or snow) in the bank indicator is the AO. That will flex up and down but looks to stay negative for the foreseeable future. 

All true,  and nice to see Canada get reallly cold,  although I believe that's the norm in a Nina winter, but snow cover has been hard to come by recently in North Amercia in general. Would be great see even a 5 to 7 day period with winds, cold and snow cover on the ground , like deep winter and a Jeb walk :-)   

[CAPE]

Still plenty of spread but we getting there..