psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Another thing to consider. As we head into the core of winter we won't need extreme cold patterns to get snow as much. A look that may not work now could work fine in 2/3 weeks. Keep the look up top favorable and we will do ok sooner or later. My only fear would be if we flipped as we enter our prime snow climo. But no signs of that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 14 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Though it looks like failure is the most likely outcome for this weekend, the lr continues with a very nice look. The more times you roll the dice the more likely you are to win a few bucks.. 18z gefs with a look nobody can complain about....well, almost nobody... And I kinda fell in love with this one from the EPS- Pretty sweet looks heading towards Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Another thing to consider. As we head into the core of winter we won't need extreme cold patterns to get snow as much. A look that may not work now could work fine in 2/3 weeks. Keep the look up top favorable and we will do ok sooner or later. My only fear would be if we flipped as we enter our prime snow climo. But no signs of that right now. The thing that's sucking right now through the next 10 days is the really steep ridge/trough alignment. The pattern looks like the Intimidator at kings dominion. Energy straight downhill and making a sharp u-turn in like 6 hours sucks. We need a NS wave to ride the kiddie coaster down a gentle slope from around Montana'ish and make a nice gradual turn as it crosses the midsection of the country. Even if one of these waves makes a decent u-turn below us in the current LW pattern, it's going to be weak and dry until it gets over the ocean and by then it's too late. I'm actually looking forward to a relaxation. The amplified pattern is good for pushing cold way far south but it's a pretty lame storm pattern for pretty much everyone except the far NE and even they will struggle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: And I kinda fell in love with this one from the EPS- Pretty sweet looks heading towards Xmas. I actually don't like that panel too much for precipitation prospect. Storm track is the dakota's/MN. Pretty much what were seeing right now. Hopefully the PNA ridge retro's at times and give us a better shot at system that can tap the gulf or phase with something in the southern stream. Or simply get a chance to amplify to the west of us anywhere. The EPS panel looks cold/dry/boring for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Another thing to consider. As we head into the core of winter we won't need extreme cold patterns to get snow as much. A look that may not work now could work fine in 2/3 weeks. Keep the look up top favorable and we will do ok sooner or later. My only fear would be if we flipped as we enter our prime snow climo. But no signs of that right now. My biggest fear as well...though my weenie brain picks through each vort panel hoping for positive trends I know that this is a tough time of year for snow in the MA...Just keep this general pattern until 3rd week in Jan and we should be in decent shape with a few nice events. No sign of a pullback in the pattern so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Remember that most big snows happen near the end of the pattern, or with another snow happening before it. We sad that with the Blizz of 2017, Blizz of 2019/10 storms as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 10 hours ago, Bob Chill said: I actually don't like that panel too much for precipitation prospect. Storm track is the dakota's/MN. Pretty much what were seeing right now. Hopefully the PNA ridge retro's at times and give us a better shot at system that can tap the gulf or phase with something in the southern stream. Or simply get a chance to amplify to the west of us anywhere. The EPS panel looks cold/dry/boring for our area. The pattern is what it is I guess. I wont complain given the possible alternatives. I like the look up top, especially in the NA, and we are seeing this look quite a bit on the ensembles(-NAO, low heights in 50-50 region), so odds are there will likely be opportunities. The western ridge will relax at times, and at some point I am sure we will get to try our luck with a -PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I actually don't like that panel too much for precipitation prospect. Storm track is the dakota's/MN. Pretty much what were seeing right now. Hopefully the PNA ridge retro's at times and give us a better shot at system that can tap the gulf or phase with something in the southern stream. Or simply get a chance to amplify to the west of us anywhere. The EPS panel looks cold/dry/boring for our area. I always thought the old rule of "Boise to Balt" for the ridge axis was what we wanted...maybe that applies later in the season due to shortening of wavelengths? That ridge axis is more like Seattle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 30 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Though it looks like failure is the most likely outcome for this weekend, the lr continues with a very nice look. The more times you roll the dice the more likely you are to win a few bucks.. 18z gefs with a look nobody can complain about....well, almost nobody... From what it looks, cold pattern heads in 3 days before Christmas. Either cold during Christmas, or a storm during Christmas or shortly after. We Hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: I actually don't like that panel too much for precipitation prospect. Storm track is the dakota's/MN. Pretty much what were seeing right now. Hopefully the PNA ridge retro's at times and give us a better shot at system that can tap the gulf or phase with something in the southern stream. Or simply get a chance to amplify to the west of us anywhere. The EPS panel looks cold/dry/boring for our area. The gefs and GEPS looks better for precip chances. But EPS isn't that far from good. with that pattern I can even see the chance of getting some help from a well timed 50/50. That could buckle the jet upstream for us. It's not perfect but it's workable. It's been a while since prolonged cold/dry was a problem. In the last many years if we get prolonged cold we usually get some snow. If we get 3 weeks of cold and no snow I will stand corrected but I'm not worried about that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 So 00z GFS at 126 at h5... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 21 minutes ago, yoda said: So 00z GFS at 126 at h5... Lol so much bad model analysis today. The best was in the euro thread when everyone thought the euro was looking better at 48...end result was worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Lol so much bad model analysis today. The best was in the euro thread when everyone thought the euro was looking better at 48...end result was worse It was decent with a lot of h5 energy around... but didn't do much at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: It was decent with a lot of h5 energy around... but didn't do much at all H5 at 210 shows promise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, Ji said: H5 at 210 shows promise More bad analysis lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 8-9 threart dead. Clipper threat...dead 12-13 dead What's next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 8-9 threart dead. Clipper threat...dead 12-13 dead What's next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 31 minutes ago, Ji said: 8-9 threart dead. Clipper threat...dead 12-13 dead What's next? Totally unexpected snowstorm. No one expects it. Dozens of ppl have jumped spectacularly off the cliffs. THAT'S whats next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Jebman said: Totally unexpected snowstorm. No one expects it. Dozens of ppl have jumped spectacularly off the cliffs. THAT'S whats next. You're saying there's a chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 45 minutes ago, Ji said: 8-9 threart dead. Clipper threat...dead 12-13 dead What's next? 5 mile wide asteroid impact then endless winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 7 hours ago, psuhoffman said: The gefs and GEPS looks better for precip chances. But EPS isn't that far from good. with that pattern I can even see the chance of getting some help from a well timed 50/50. That could buckle the jet upstream for us. It's not perfect but it's workable. It's been a while since prolonged cold/dry was a problem. In the last many years if we get prolonged cold we usually get some snow. If we get 3 weeks of cold and no snow I will stand corrected but I'm not worried about that yet. This is pretty much how I see it. We are pretty consistently seeing ridging around GL, and lower heights underneath(50-50) in the LR. That should enhance our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: This is pretty much how I see it. We are pretty consistently seeing ridging around GL, and lower heights underneath(50-50) in the LR. That should enhance our chances. Besides a brief relax with the EPO and a dampening of the PNA on the EPS I really don't see anything that warrants concern on either the GEFS nor the EPS at this time. Granted I have devoted most of my time with this weekend over the last week so maybe I am missing something with a quick glance. And I am a simple kind of guy. Give me a trough in the east and ridging in the west through the long range and I am happy. I let all the other details work themselves out as they get closer in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 49 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Besides a brief relax with the EPO and a dampening of the PNA on the EPS I really don't see anything that warrants concern on either the GEFS nor the EPS at this time. Granted I have devoted most of my time with this weekend over the last week so maybe I am missing something with a quick glance. And I am a simple kind of guy. Give me a trough in the east and ridging in the west through the long range and I am happy. I let all the other details work themselves out as they get closer in time. one thing that I noticed on the GEFS 6z was the temp anomaly going in the wrong direction at 850/2m. Yes, the ridge/trough is still there which argues for chances but I would still rather keep it real cold if possible because I am not in the camp that says give me the precip and I will take my chances with temps..not here...no way. I don't have the skill to know if the LR temp anomalies really mean anything. 2m temps look cold for sure but nothing crazy. but again ridge/trough look right to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 hey guys, just a reminder, there is now a thread for the weekend storm, please post discussion about 12/9-12/10 there. thanks Management Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 A single member goes -6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 Nobody commented on the euro for next week? Slackers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Nobody commented on the euro for next week? Slackers. I think most know it'll be a heartbreaker. It's December. What does it show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: one thing that I noticed on the GEFS 6z was the temp anomaly going in the wrong direction at 850/2m. Yes, the ridge/trough is still there which argues for chances but I would still rather keep it real cold if possible because I am not in the camp that says give me the precip and I will take my chances with temps..not here...no way. I don't have the skill to know if the LR temp anomalies really mean anything. 2m temps look cold for sure but nothing crazy. but again ridge/trough look right to me. I don't like the overnight gefs/EPS runs that much. Both went the wrong way. Neither looks awful. They degraded into a mediocre look towards the end. Certainly not anything hostile like last year but nothing exciting either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcflyermd68 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 the streak of 8 months of little to no precipitation seems to be continuing, can you give me your opinion of what is causing this semi drought?? It has the DC supply resevoirs in maryland bone dry,i have never seen anything like this in over 20years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 13 hours ago, poolz1 said: Though it looks like failure is the most likely outcome for this weekend, the lr continues with a very nice look. The more times you roll the dice the more likely you are to win a few bucks.. 18z gefs with a look nobody can complain about....well, almost nobody... Looks cold and dry to me. Look at the Northern jet. Not really a great storm track for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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