December 2017 Mid-Long Range Disco

[BristowWx]

6 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

You can't trust the off runs. Has to be 0z.

Oh boy..now it feels like our normal winter routine..right 18z we toss

[psuhoffman]

Given the Nina base state a highly active stj is unlikely. This pattern is way more likely to be good to us the later into the heart of winter we get. But keep the AO cooperative and we have a good chance to win eventually. 

[Interstate]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Given the Nina base state a highly active stj is unlikely. This pattern is way more likely to be good to us the later into the heart of winter we get. But keep the AO cooperative and we have a good chance to win eventually. 

We only get good snowstorms in March around here

[Ger]

I'm predicting a major NW shift on the 18z GFS. I can feel it in my bones

[midatlanticweather]

1 minute ago, Ger said:

I'm predicting a major NW shift on the 18z GFS. I can feel it in my bones

Feelings can lie! 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Ger said:

I'm predicting a major NW shift on the 18z GFS. I can feel it in my bones

I’m predicting somebody’s going to use the word next I can feel it in myBones

[mitchnick]

Thru 42 hrs, gfs is flatter than 12z dagnabit

[midatlanticweather]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Thru 42 hrs, gfs is flatter than 12z dagnabit

And that continues into 48 and 54 .. ....and....

 

[mitchnick]

I could be seeing things,  butvit looks like the gfs is holding things back in the GOM. thru 54

[CAPE]

33 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I was going to say happy hour GFS...We need to shoot this horse 

It's dead Jim.

[mitchnick]

Just now, mitchnick said:

I could be seeing things,  butvit looks like the gfs is holding things back in the GOM. thru 54

Yep,  seeing things

[CAPE]

This has the looks of maybe a sloppy inch or 2 around Salisbury and southern DE to the beaches, and not much of anything further inland.

[Interstate]

Have to love GL lows

[Scraff]

Welp...

[Ji]

So we failed on southern slider and the clipper. Wowza 

[Amped]

GFS trailing the southern energy more this run.  Unfortunately it doesn't matter since the northern stream is faster and crushes it.

 

CMC and UKMET keep the NRN stream more broad and don't have a vortmax over CHI at 66hrs.

[Eskimo Joe]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

So we failed on southern slider and the clipper. Wowza 

Did you expect anything less?

[H2O]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Did you expect anything less?

You’re out so why do you care?

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, H2O said:

You’re out so why do you care?

As soul-less zombie he will now troll threads. Oh wait..

[Wonderdog]

Last Friday showed moderate rain for the I-95 Corridor with the passage of the cold front today. Last Sunday showed subsequent to the front going through, a low pressure moving up the coast and hitting the Mid-Atlantic and New England with light to moderate snows. Now today we see the end of that weekend possibility of some snow in our area with the latest model run. Not a very good showing for the GFS this go round, it seems.

[BristowWx]

We are going to need some luck with timing.  No different than normal.  We live thread the needle most times.  My only fear is we lose the cold pattern and then have to chase the change back for weeks.  If we do not score in December then panic is warranted.  Not because of the date on the calendar but the epic blocking that did nothing for us.  

[SnowLover22]

Stay tuned may not be over

.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

So close to phase. 00z sometimes leads last minute trend. 

[CAPE]

A phase or partial phase could work out for eastern NE I suppose, but I dont see how that comes together in time to do much for our region.

[CAPE]

18 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said:

Stay tuned may not be over

 

 

.

 

 

Wouldn't hold my breath. You know its desperation time when the "poor sampling" card is pulled.

[North Balti Zen]

10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Wouldn't hold my breath. You know its desperation time when the "poor sampling" card is pulled.

Except, if, there’s actually poor sampling. 

[psuhoffman]

Let's discuss the Friday/Saturday system here 

I know no one wants to start the first storm thread for a fail but this is way inside long range and there is too much going on in this one thread now. I'll take the blame for the fail. 

[Cobalt]

Looking into the future

*Jaws Music Plays*

 

[poolz1]

Though it looks like failure is the most likely outcome for this weekend, the lr continues with a very nice look.  The more times you roll the dice the more likely you are to win a few bucks..

 

18z gefs with a look nobody can complain about....well, almost nobody...

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, poolz1 said:

Though it looks like failure is the most likely outcome for this weekend, the lr continues with a very nice look.  The more times you roll the dice the more likely you are to win a few bucks..

 

18z gefs with a look nobody can complain about....well, almost nobody...

Agreed. Today was a good day for long range prospects. Short relaxation day 11-13 that might not even get above normal then things look to reload. Epo and AO hold favorable on all guidance in the long range.