showmethesnow Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 We saw a somewhat decent improvement on the 12z Eps with the offshore low vs. the 00Z and yet I am somewhat surprised to see no change in the precip field. Wonder if the Euros tendency to underplay NW extent of precip on a distinct low may have come into play here (Chapter 3 of the weenie handbook, pg 32). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 You can't help but laugh little at the EPS 15 day mean precip panel. EPS hates my yard right now. It REALLY hates wnwxluvr's yard. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 That map looks similar to last years debacle. I actually like our chances later this month in all honesty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Probably been discussed in detail already but the UKMET is enough to keep me tracking. That would be a beautiful early season snow storm for us. Of course it's on its own so we don't weigh it heavily, but I'm not tuning out of this threat if it keeps showing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: That map looks similar to last years debacle. I actually like our chances later this month in all honesty. The upcoming stretch never looked like a wet pattern so it's pretty much going as expected. Doesn't mean any of us have to like it of course. It's a bit of a tradeoff. The vast majority of the time the atmosphere looks to support snow the next 10 days so it's not like we need 6" of QPF to get something going. The northern stream is never nice to us early in the year. I can't think of any Dec with a dominant NS that produced prolifically. 2013 is the only one I can think of and it wasn't really prolific. 2010 tried to work out but instead unleashed a big bag of steaming S to enjoy for the holiday week. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Summary of 12z runs: 12z GFS: pretty similar to 6z, better than 0z for sure 12z CMC: on par with 0z CMC, but it's the CMC. Upgrades may help it though 12z ukmet: Best case scenario. Could happen, I love the potential, but hopes are fairly slim. 12z Euro: better than 0z, but not good enough to put us in snow. Could be wrong, and I'm still digging thru the Jan 6th event of last year to find analogs to what the models were showing. 12z GEFS: Better development of storm, doesn't bring precip close enough stil 12z EPS: Improvement of 0z, you can tell by it upping snow, and despite it giving DC 0.1" less snow than it did in the 0z, the gradient to the SE is what catches my eye. Quick jump from 1"-4" of snow 12z NAVGEM: On par with 0z, east of 6z. Looks not too shabby, but west would be much appreciated 12z NAM: close but no cigar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Probably been discussed in detail already but the UKMET is enough to keep me tracking. That would be a beautiful early season snow storm for us. Of course it's on its own so we don't weigh it heavily, but I'm not tuning out of this threat if it keeps showing that. UKMET is apparently the 2nd most accurate behind the Euro. Also apparently tracked Irma better than any of the other models at long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockabilyJunior Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 It's interesting that the NAM and CMC are in agreement though, with the Euro trending back a bit. If I recall the Jan 2016 blizzard was first picked up by the CMC and the NAM was the first model that showed the big snow totals making it to NY. It was both the GFS and Euro that had a bit of a suppressed southerly track for a few runs if I recall, and the Euro had a really tight gradient at the PA/MD border that went from 0 inches to 30+ inches, which obviously did not verify. But even if the precip magically makes it farther NW and the cities are magically forecast to get 3+ inches, it just seems too warm. We'll be sitting waiting for the temperature to drop below freezing while we watch white rain fall from the sky. Not to be a downer, but every good snow I can remember in our region is preceded by below freezing temperatures for at least a few hours at some point in the previous day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 18Z NAM folded and now is in line with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, usedtobe said: 18Z NAM folded and now is in line with the Euro. 12Z NAM was not snow over us....it came close, but no cigar EDIT: it came close to mby, but it does look like 18Z came back east a tick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 i hate southern sliders as much as Miller B's. Too far north for Southern Sliders...too far South for Miller B's...too far east for clippers....too far west for storms that track away from teh coast......we suck at getting snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 18 minutes ago, Cobalt said: UKMET is apparently the 2nd most accurate behind the Euro. Also apparently tracked Irma better than any of the other models at long range the model is a joke. Next run will be a 1012 off the coast of Jacksonville, Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 long fetch of moisture off the Pacific http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_vis.php?image=enh&inv=0&t=l3®ion=we EDIT: first sat pic....you know I mean bidness! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Ji said: the model is a joke. Next run will be a 1012 off the coast of Jacksonville, Florida Lol and your JMA is what then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 33 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You can't help but laugh little at the EPS 15 day mean precip panel. EPS hates my yard right now. It REALLY hates wnwxluvr's yard. lol Where the hell is he?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 The snow in Mexico is depressing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Where the hell is he?? we see this kind of image at least 9 times a year....its gone from a joke--haha---to like a permanent feature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Where the hell is he?? southwest of HGR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 we have way too many events lately where SE virginia beats us in snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Ji said: we have way too many events lately where SE virginia beats us in snow... Pensacola might beat us this time lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 This is the perfect setup for a January 25 redux. IJS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Ji said: we have way too many events lately where SE virginia beats us in snow... Unless of course you had to move there than those events would stop right away. I live there for 10 years and trust me you don’t want to live there if you like snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcflyermd68 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 eps continues the pattern that has been going since april. little preip in our area, and there appears to be nothing on the models to change this. Considering the current length of dry spell, i question when this will break. I,m not at all in favor of it suddenly breaking down this winter. But I have no skill in this, just time and experience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 At least all the 12z guidance says the cold pattern reloads quickly by day 15. -AO holding strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 I don't care what the models say. It smells like snow out there today. Euro needs to make a nice jump NW tonight or the game is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: I don't care what the models say. It smells like snow out there today. Euro needs to make a nice jump NW tonight or the game is over. I was going to say happy hour GFS...We need to shoot this horse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: At least all the 12z guidance says the cold pattern reloads quickly by day 15. -AO holding strong. we need to reset this pattern dude...its not working out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, Ji said: we need to reset this pattern dude...its not working out. It just started 2am today!!! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I was going to say happy hour GFS...We need to shoot this horse You can't trust the off runs. Has to be 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ji said: we need to reset this pattern dude...its not working out. At least you gave it 12 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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