yoda Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: COMPARING 0z RUN TO 12z, EURO HAS A LARGER PRECIP SHIELD DOWN SOUTH AT 72 HRS VS. 84 HRS. WE'LL SEE IF THAT MEANS ANYTHING, BUT IT'S BETTER THAN OTHERWISE p.s. pardon the caps....in a hurry and didn't look lol Yeah, I was going to say that 12z EURO looked a lil better at 72 as well... but we shall see where it goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 12z NAVGEM also farther NW as well. It's not over folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 On TT, but at 96 is that SLP development in NW SC? Or just a wave? Looking at the h5 map fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Just now, yoda said: On TT, but at 96 is that SLP development in SC? Or just a wave? at 96 hrs., it's stronger with the southern wave at 5H Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: On TT, but at 96 is that SLP development in SC? Or just a wave? I think its trying. 102 looks interesting with precip climbing the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Yoda, don't do pbp...it's always bad news when you do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 seems to be holding the energy back in the south and keeping the northern stream vort further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 108... snowing @ DCA. ... probably. Ground temps are close. 850s are good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Slightly less cold at 96. May help w/ letting it gain a little latitude en route. 540's through Central Pa vs SE Pa on 0z. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 day 5....,nice https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017120412&fh=96&xpos=0&ypos=422 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 hour ago, supernovasky said: GEFS panel through end of run There is clear chaos that can be seen from those panels! Although none show a complete whiff (through hr384), nearly all of them show completely different results! Ensemble members show accumulation ranges from a coating to just over a foot for dca through the period with many different in-between possibilities (1", 2", 3", 4", 5", skip 6" to 8", 9", and 1 12"+). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: day 5....,nice https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017120412&fh=96&xpos=0&ypos=422 That does look nice...but can be deceiving. I'd like to know the precip spread/temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Euro looks a bit snowier this run. I think we're still in play for later this week first flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 snow IS falling at 108 per p-type map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, supernovasky said: Euro looks a bit snowier this run. I think we're still in play for later this week first flakes. yeah, at 500 it like the sharper (almost more negagive) look. To me precip should argue for a better westward jog. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 For d4+ leads, I'm pretty thrilled with what the euro just spit out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: That does look nice...but can be deceiving. I'd like to know the precip spread/temps Temps at 108h look good throughout the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 doesn't last for long, however 1 6-hour panel shows snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, supernovasky said: Euro looks a bit snowier this run. I think we're still in play for later this week first flakes. Yeah looks like a pretty nice improvement over 0z. Going in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: doesn't last for long, however 1 6-hour panel shows snow I think that's the realistic and reasonable expectation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2017 Author Share Posted December 4, 2017 It’s ever so slightly west of the 0z position and a bit faster as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: I think that's the realistic and reasonable expectation if I had realistic and reasonable expectations, I wouldn't be in this forum...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: doesn't last for long, however 1 6-hour panel shows snow 6 hours of snow in december is better than any single month of snow totals in much of the last 2 winters..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 not that it will mean much, but the clipper looks a touch better too than last run at 120 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 It's close. Verbatim it's snow but its basically a dusting. Much more eventful down by RIC/tidewater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Woah hello 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 It's a start. Now, if we can get it to jog 100 miles west by the 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Chase said: thx for this. Do you have the 0z at your tips for comparisons sake? Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 132 does nothing for me but it's good to see these solutions popping up. It doesn't take but one of these things to jog a little to get us. Combine this with a snowy GFS and I'm still feeling good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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