WxUSAF Posted December 6, 2017 Author Share Posted December 6, 2017 Euro looks better for middle of next week also. Digs the vort more and dusts us with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Looks like Euro moved like 25 miles. It's something, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, osfan24 said: Looks like Euro moved like 25 miles. It's something, I guess. I mean, we've got 4 more runs until the storm. Keep that up, and we've got something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 On to Happy Hour... this season is going to be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: I mean, we've got 4 more runs until the storm. Keep that up, and we've got something Yeah. I mean, it's nice it did shift somewhat northwest, but we don't have another 16 runs of the model before the storm hits. Running out of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, Cobalt said: 12z Euro vs 0z Euro 12z: 0z Clearly farther NW than 0z, but not by an awful lot. The precip made it further NW than that panel on the 0z run though. Look at 0z, valid 18z Sat. The edge of the precip shield did tick further NW (slightly) on the 12z run, but the heavier stuff really didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: I guess anything is possible but Euro/GFS combo both missing it and Ukie/CMC catching it seems hard to fathom. be fun to see what his thoughts are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: I guess anything is possible but Euro/GFS combo both missing it and Ukie/CMC catching it seems hard to fathom. be fun to see what his thoughts are It will be the same thoughts as always from Bernie. Somehow the NE will get blitzed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 I believe the Euro will come around. Maybe not to the extent of the Ukie or GEM, but it will eventually throw something light, at least, our way. If not, the rest of the run looks to have a few more possibilities, so we wait. Either way, this is the best model war we've had in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: I believe the Euro will come around. Maybe not to the extent of the Ukie or GEM, but it will eventually throw something light, at least, our way. If not, the rest of the run looks to have a few more possibilities, so we wait. Either way, this is the best model war we've had in a long time. first flakes sir...all that matters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Just a reminder that I'm here for you if you want to be placed on the watch list or need a reaper call! Laying your winter weenie soul to rest is always just one post away. I need my toilet unclogged. Does the Reaper do calls for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: It will be the same thoughts as always from Bernie. Somehow the NE will get blitzed. Eastern NE will probably end up getting a solid snowfall. The "improvement" on the 12z Euro was better for them- looks like the NS energy phases, but just a tad too late. Even so, just south of Boston gets a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 46 and the cold front has passed, the long range model cold isn't verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: I need my toilet unclogged. Does the Reaper do calls for that? As long as he gets your weenie soul as payment, I am sure it can be arranged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, StormchaserChuck said: 46 and the cold front has passed, the long range model cold isn't verifying. What does that mean for the 12/9 event? Does cold not verifying=further NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, StormchaserChuck said: 46 and the cold front has passed actually, I hope you're right that it doesn't get that cold, just cold enough for snow the very cold proggs won't verify, but if they did, we wouldn't have a shot at snow the weaker cold influx is what can give us the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 11 minutes ago, Ger said: What does that mean for the 12/9 event? Does cold not verifying=further NW? It makes the storms damper, it would be a light wet snow. There is a big difference I think between dry snow events and wet snow, the second feels like rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 6, 2017 Author Share Posted December 6, 2017 Welp...EPS is slower, stronger, and further west with the Saturday low. Looks like about a tenth of precip up to I95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, WxUSAF said: Welp...EPS is slower, stronger, and further west with the Saturday low. Looks like about a tenth of precip up to I95. It's coming, I'm telling you <RANDY> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 37 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I guess anything is possible but Euro/GFS combo both missing it and Ukie/CMC catching it seems hard to fathom. be fun to see what his thoughts are Watched Rayno's video. He pretty much thinks we're out of the game. Clickbaited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Welp...EPS is slower, stronger, and further west with the Saturday low. Looks like about a tenth of precip up to I95. The mean snowfall & precip are worse then 0z, unless I'm reading it wrong. Big run for SW VA/Delmarva/NC though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 6, 2017 Author Share Posted December 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: The mean snowfall & precip are worse then 0z, unless I'm reading it wrong. Big run for SW VA/Delmarva/NC though. I don’t know about the snow maps, but the slower and more consolidated and westward low can’t be anything bad for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 I think we're entering model convergence time. The easternmost models are shifting west, and the westernmost model (the GGEM) shifed east. I'll go out on a limb and say they meet in the middle, probably closer to the Euro's current track than the GGEM's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I don’t know about the snow maps, but the slower and more consolidated and westward low can’t be anything bad for us. You're right. I'm forgetting that the 0z EURO run included some precip from the FROPA. It is an improvement on the precip front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Welp...EPS is slower, stronger, and further west with the Saturday low. Looks like about a tenth of precip up to I95. Don't give up hope yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Definitely a better look on the EPS members with intensification and track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Jason and I struggled how to handle the discussion of the snow threat for Saturday. Both the 12Z GFS and Euro keep the wave off the coast far enough east to keep the precipitation south and east of us.The Euro verifies better than other models but is not always right. By contrast, the UKMET at 72 has a low tucked up against the coast of the Carolinas. It's forecast would support a pretty snowy Saturday. For non mets, its scores are second only to the Euro and it forecast has support from the Canadian model, the worst model of the 4. The models are at war. Not surprisingly, most GEFS members favor the GFS and Euro solutions but have trended a bit stronger and clsoer to shore on the 12Z run than the previous one. We're leaning towards the Euro solution but there is too much uncertainty to completely discount the UKMET. The flatter Euro solution is somewhat dependent on the strength of a shortwave that rotates around the Canadian vortex which helps keep flow from backing enough to allow the precipitation work into our area. Weaken that feature and strengthen the next shortwave in the stream that drops to the Great Lakes by 72 hours and the Euro solution would be different, possibly more in line with the UKMET or Canadian. I don't trust the handling of those northern stream impulses as in the past I've been burned by them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Excellent post Wes. Thank you for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 UKMET would support a general 6-12 right? I know it's wrong but it's nice to dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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