yoda Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Posted by Forky in SNE thread: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, Scraff said: Nobody should be on board anything until King CRAS speaks. It’s actually not that far west which may mean the gfs is right LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Remember that the UKIE nailed Irma. It was first with the Cuba track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ukie is a good model but no model is perfect. Not even the euro. However, from 72 hours and in, the euro is unquestionably the most accurate. It has its hiccups too but if the euro shows something similar to the gfs then banking on the ukie is foolish. The real fun starts when the euro splits the difference between the ukie/cmc and gfs. lol It is a good model and verifies better than the GFS on average at least at 500h. Makes me really interested in the Euro as the UKMET did shift quite a bit west and is much stronger with the upper level feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Note the SLP postion at hr 78 on 12z UKIE -- excellent position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 I'm honestly surprised the UKIE qpf output wasn't higher given it's positioning and intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 20 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Us Western guys are rooting for you all...you can have our temps since we won't need them We will get the better ratio's though.....Oh nevermind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 After all the crazy busts (good and bad) and crazy out of nowhere shifts in guidance at short range I love how some still make declarative statements after every good or bad op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Usually the Ukie is first to show a shift in things before the Euro comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 i go out to lunch for an hour and come back to find y'all hugging the Ukie? As if the NAM, NAVGEM and Canadian wasn't bad enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: After all the crazy busts (good and bad) and crazy out of nowhere shifts in guidance at short range I love how some still make declarative statements after every good or bad op run. I have not noticed much shifting from the euro in the last 48 hours, so if this one does that would impress me. eta: timing has been different, but low placements have looked similar to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I'm honestly surprised the UKIE qpf output wasn't higher given it's positioning and intensity. The precip is far from over at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, H2O said: Usually the Ukie is first to show a shift in things before the Euro comes out. Until it doesn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, usedtobe said: The precip is far from over at 72 hours. I was looking at 126 hours. Seemed to show a storm total around .8 to an inch of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Ukie hugging is FAR more acceptable than the others, if you’re the kind of person that believes in hugging one op run of one model. You know the weenie handlbook, rule number 1 is to hug the model that gives you thee most snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Usually the Ukie is first to show a shift in things before the Euro comes out.That’s what I thought last night. Until Euro wouldn’t budge.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 I'd rather have the Ukie on my side than the German. just saying. Stick with the allies and not the axis powers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, jrodd321 said: That’s what I thought last night. Until Euro wouldn’t budge. . The Euro will adjust. Ukie leads, others follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, H2O said: I'd rather have the Ukie on my side than the German. just saying. Stick with the allies and not the axis powers speaking of the german, anyone news the 12z of the it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 I'm rather skeptical of the storm moving out to sea. Models are for sure gonna put up a fight in the next 48 hours. I'll try to bring up some more posts from that Jan 6th 2017 storm, since I think that's our closest analog. Cold front came in Wednesday, storm Friday. Only difference is a clipper event that missed us that Thursday. I remember that the models showed good potential on the weekend, backed off Monday, Tuesday, slightly came back Tuesday night, looks dismal Wednesday, came back Wednesday afternoon. came back Friday, and we had the potential of 1-3" even NW of DC. It can surely happen again, especially since we're seeing how volatile the models can be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 12z NAVGEM has precip shield identical to 6z, but heaviest precip doesn't reach as far west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 I'm guessing the 12z GEFS didn't trend west at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: I'm guessing the 12z GEFS didn't trend west at all? It was worse then 06z, but we can ignore that now that the UKIE is with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 12z Euro running now. Godspeed everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Eyeballing Euro, it looks slightly better than 0z thru 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: Eyeballing Euro, it looks slightly better than 0z thru 48 hours Slightly is not good enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Any shift NW for Euro is a win in my book Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 lets wait for it to run before making any calls on how it will look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 I can't believe it's actually going to snow in Alabama before it snows here. Southern Alabama. Wacky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Somehow the GLL screws SNE and not us on the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.