CAPE Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 (NAM + CMC) - GFS = Please EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: sure that's not 0Z, because the qpf totals off TT bring it past 1" Its definitely 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Wes gets smoked lol looking at snow accums... now if only the GGEM were to be right for this upcoming system We've got the NAM, Canadian, and NAVGEM. That's one smart bunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: sure that's not 0Z, because the qpf totals off TT bring it past 1" Um, no it doesn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 I will have to say the CMC has been locked two runs in a row now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Pretty ugly GFS run overall. I cant believe I am going to watch Richmond get accumulating snow before me again this year. What a kick in the jewels. It hurts even more when the jewels are blue . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 6, 2017 Author Share Posted December 6, 2017 Verbatim 12z GFS runs have sucked the last few days. But I like the trend of popping a coastal mid next week farther south. Still needs to sharpen the trough so it throws some precip back onshore, but the latitude trend is our friend for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Um, no it doesn't The legend on the right says the first level of green is .1", next is .25, next is .5", and the next is 1". The link below is (or is supposed to be) hour 72. Start with that, then go to 78 and then 84. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2017120612&fh=72&xpos=0&ypos=218 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 This seems to be right on point with last 2 year trends. Ha, ha. #donut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: The legend on the right says the first level of green is .1", next is .25, next is .5", and the next is 1". The link below is (or is supposed to be) hour 72. Start with that, then go to 78 and then 84. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2017120612&fh=72&xpos=0&ypos=218 That's instantaneous precip from your link This is total accumulated precip -- https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=neus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2017120612&fh=96&xpos=0&ypos=154 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 33 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I don't remember which year but the 18z nam was the first model to steal a storm from us and it turned out correct. We all said toss the nam until everything else followed. lol There was a small event way back in January 2007 where everything showed a nice little 3-5" snow for our area from a developing wave along the coast, kind of similar to this, and the NAM by itself was saying "what wave" and had nothing. This was about 36 hours out. We tossed it. Sure enough next run all the other guidance lost the wave also. It does score a coup from time to time, but not often. And I can remember WAY more negative coups then positive ones FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Even when we get our day 10/11 fantasy storm on the GFS we get a nice LP over the lakes to go with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 42 minutes ago, Ger said: Has the name ever scored a leading-the-way coup? For long-range (>60 hr) forecasts, I can only remember it "leading" because it's one of the first models to come out. Shorter-range, I can remember it identifying precip maxes that other models missed. But at shorter range you're probably better off using the 3k NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 27 minutes ago, mitchnick said: YESSSSSSS Canadian https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2017120612&fh=60&xpos=0&ypos=626 It's the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 19 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Pretty ugly GFS run overall. I cant believe I am going to watch Richmond get accumulating snow before me again this year. What a kick in the jewels. I like the GFS op run so far. Both events next week trended south and now get under us. That is the most important thing ATT. We will resolve details way later, but right now have to get these vorts under us to be in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 21 minutes ago, yoda said: Wes gets smoked lol looking at snow accums... now if only the GGEM were to be right for this upcoming system It's the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's the Canadian. I mean, I guess it's the most consistent model of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 I'm going to need the Euro to believe. Then again, any solution like the 12z GFS which shows potential snowfall in Florida is suspect IMO. Sure, it happens, but rarely enough to think twice about believing it's going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It's the Canadian. Someone mentioned way earlier in November that it received an upgrade that will supposedly help it in the medium range. This can be a test. Definitely shouldn't lean on it though, but the event isn't dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, IUsedToHateCold said: I'm going to need the Euro to believe. Then again, any solution like the 12z GFS which shows potential snowfall in Florida is suspect IMO. Sure, it happens, but rarely enough to think twice about believing it's going to happen. the CMC has snowfall in FL as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Apparently the ukie is inside the BM according to NYC metro forum.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 6, 2017 Author Share Posted December 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's the Canadian. So you’re saying you’re all in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 meteocentre is delayed with the UKIE... but I see posts saying its come west more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 meteocentre is delayed with the UKIE... but I see posts saying its come west moreWhat site are they getting it from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Pretty sure the CMC has a bias to overamp systems. It apparently was upgraded so who knows, but that seems to be its previous bias at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 D11 on GFS looked pretty intense... but nothing accumulates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Last night's run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 FWIW GEFS looks the exact same as the 6z with its members for Saturday. Don't blame me for looking for any hope of first flakes on Saturday Edit: slightly SE but not by much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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