NorthArlington101 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: You would like what it shows. 1" precip mark gets 25/30 west of the cities. Shows 2+ on portions of the eastern shore. Not going to look hard but it looks as if it would be mostly snow all the way to the eastern shore of MD. Not sure ground temps get below zero looking at WxBell but yeah, upper levels look pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 RGEM on TT only goes out to 48 hours, but is you compare the 48 hr. 6Z run (top) vs. 12Z 42 hrs. (middle), you get what you see below. The bottom pic is the 12Z NAM at 42 hrs. Hmmmmm..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 24 minutes ago, LP08 said: Sorry to break up the convo, but I saw on Twitter that Maue added H5 Vort Panels to the euro at http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf.php What a great partnership they have together now! He needed it. Good for him to share his own work with everyone else! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 WPC and LWX are starting to put out relevant products. Not to clog it up with images anymore, I'll just give links: http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter http://models.weatherbell.com/wpc/wpc_snow.php I'd buy the WPC 50% right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: WPC and LWX are starting to put out relevant products. Not to clog it up with images anymore, I'll just give links: http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter http://models.weatherbell.com/wpc/wpc_snow.php I'd buy the WPC 50% right now. wait a minute.....is that a current map on the WxBell link for % chances of snow thru Saturday 12Z (72hrs.) because it shows lots of snow over us??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: wait a minute.....is that a current map on the WxBell link for % chances of snow thru Saturday 12Z (72hrs.) because it shows lots of snow over us??? Unless I am misreading it, that is current. LWX is honestly kinda bullish too. Gives a 30% chance of 2" for DCA through Sat. What I find interesting is that WPC and LWX aren't buying the heavy strip of snow by the coast as much. Wonder what they are seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: wait a minute.....is that a current map on the WxBell link for % chances of snow thru Saturday 12Z (72hrs.) because it shows lots of snow over us??? WPC has a dusting for DC through 72 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 What's this product? That's the one I'm referring to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: What's this product? That's the one I'm referring to. That is taking the 95th percentile, basically the highest end solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 90-95% are typically going to be a "worst-case" scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: That is taking the 95th percentile, basically the highest end solution. I mean it has a snowhole over DCA, so it must be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: What's this product? That's the one I'm referring to. Statistically, this has a 5% chance of occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, isohume said: Statistically, this has a 5% chance of occurring. So you're saying there's a chance....Great! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, isohume said: Statistically, this has a 5% chance of occurring. so...we still have a chance.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: So you're saying there's a chance....Great! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 12z GFS seems to be identical. Still better than 0z, but still also a miss it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 All of the guidance is latched onto the "second" frontal wave now. What was a chance at snow early Friday morning is now a chance Friday evening into Saturday morning. Things are actually trending the way we need (stronger more amplified second wave, but that doesn't mean it will continue and get where we need. But its close enough now that I am still interested for a few more runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 GFS looks no better than 6Z at 60 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 A little faster with the northern stream and that helps give it the boot. Maybe we can get that back to digging under us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: GFS looks no better than 6Z at 60 hrs someone broke the GFS. it used to show constant snow for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, Ji said: someone broke the GFS. it used to show constant snow for us The GFS is a pos! It always stays southeast in these setups and then within 48 hours it will have an epiphany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: A little faster with the northern stream and that helps give it the boot. Maybe we can get that back to digging under us. Then you need it to speed up about 12-18 hours. Otherwise....fuggetaboutit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Looking back through the most recent analog of the Jan 6th storm. Cape says "DT says the GFS is crap for east coast winter storms until inside of 3 days. We can test this theory." we'll see about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Weird, it seems as if the same thing happened on that Wednesday too Bob Chill 26,362 posts Location:Rockville, MD ID: 664 Posted January 4 · Report post "CMC also shifted west from the 0z run so it was a "trend" in the right direction. So far 12z has sucked though. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Then you need it to speed up about 12-18 hours. Otherwise....fuggetaboutit. Mostly a sarcastic post, that ship has sailed IMO, only way is to slow it down and sharpen the base for the 2nd southern stream wave like the B models have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 atmospheric memory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, Ji said: someone broke the GFS. it used to show constant snow for us But that never meant we actually got it like it showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, mappy said: atmospheric memory I forgot, what does that mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: I forgot, what does that mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, LP08 said: Mostly a sarcastic post, that ship has sailed IMO, only way is to slow it down and sharpen the base for the 2nd southern stream wave like the B models have. Only thing that keeps giving me hope is the fact that it's the 1st storm of the year. Biases for the models are not set in stone yet. Some years they trend NW a couple days before the storm, some days SE. Probably gonna be close but no cigar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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