mitchnick Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Here's the deal. The models have been guessing where the front off the coast will stall and the influence of the SE Ridge, where there aren't that many `radiosondes sent up for obvious reasons. Now that the front is off the coast, we should expect some adjustments with the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Weird that EPS, GEFS still show a stripe of snow slightly SE of 95, while including DC in an inch plus. I still wanna believe, but I'd say it's best to put more weight in the Ops. I'm hoping that while I'm studying for my test for Friday, the GFS, Euro will try to distract me from it by moving the storm northwest. I'd say 10% chance of an inch or more imby NW of DC, but that's being hopeful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Still going @ hr 84 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Wes clearly in play for some snow accums if 12z NAM is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 We take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Sorry to break up the convo, but I saw on Twitter that Maue added H5 Vort Panels to the euro at http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf.php What a great partnership they have together now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: Wes clearly in play for some snow accums if 12z NAM is correct About 4" per WB Salisbury jackpots again at 10" lol. I bet they have never seen so much digital snow in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Loop the 700mb RH maps.....boy that's tantalizing close http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=nam&area=namer&cycle=20171206 12 UTC¶m=700_rh_ht&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps=model&fhr_mode=image&loop_start=-1&loop_end=-1&skip_num=undefined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 NAM did it Naming! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Does DT do ALEETS for the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: Weird that EPS, GEFS still show a stripe of snow slightly SE of 95, while including DC in an inch plus. I still wanna believe, but I'd say it's best to put more weight in the Ops. I'm hoping that while I'm studying for my test for Friday, the GFS, Euro will try to distract me from it by moving the storm northwest. I'd say 10% chance of an inch or more imby NW of DC, but that's being hopeful The setup Fri/Sat has simplified quite a bit from just a couple of days ago so at this point so the ops are probably the way to go. The ensembles though are worth keeping an eye on because they do recognize the possibility of strong enough energy in the south to initiate decent low pressure as evidenced by a number of it's members that are showing that solution. If we start seeing that number increasing over subsequent runs then there may be reason for some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 hour ago, mappy said: ^ ugh It's way way way way way too early for this. We just entered the colder pattern today. This was the FIRST threat not the 4th or 5th fail. I am NOT saying there are no valid arguments for why we want to see it snow soon. Yes most of our really big winters it just seems to want to snow and we luck into something by xmas. But we still might. Its only Dec 6. And even if we don't some good winters got started late. Either way this doom and gloom over one "possible" fail on what was never even a high probability event in the first 10 days of December is just crazy. If we do actually waste this entire window without any accumulating snow at all and enter an extended hostile pattern then we can entertain serious concern for the season but not now. ETA: I know your not part of that group, I agree with your UGH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Still going @ hr 84 lol Dam, last 2/3 frames hadn't loaded yet and I just assumed the look hadn't gotten any better. That is nice to see. See development of that 6/12 hours sooner that would get everyone into play, possible even me. Shame it's the NAM and at the extent of it's range to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: NAM did it Naming! LOL! The fact that it’s only Wednesday morning gives me some hope (probably false) that NW ticking may be underway. 12z suite will be telling. Could be the most important model runs of the winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 NAM trapping yall again. NAM is a a trap queen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 fwiw, 6Z NAVGAM very impressive with the precip, upper levels, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 lol NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: NAM trapping yall again. NAM is a a trap queen. is her name Debbie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, showmethesnow said: Dam, last 2/3 frames hadn't loaded yet and I just assumed the look hadn't gotten any better. That is nice to see. See development of that 6/12 hours sooner that would get everyone into play, possible even me. Shame it's the NAM and at the extent of it's range to boot. And the CMC shall lead the way.. The NAM giving support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: fwiw, 6Z NAVGAM very impressive with the precip, upper levels, etc. Wish TT had better maps for showing the NAVGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: NAM trapping yall again. NAM is a a trap queen. Nah, not this old dog. NAM's beat me down so hard in the olden days that I learned my lesson years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: And the CMC shall lead the way.. The NAM giving support I mean, wasn't the CMC upgraded recently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: And the CMC shall lead the way.. The NAM giving support IF, and that's a BIG IF, we do get something decent, NAVGAM wins by a landslide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: NAM trapping yall again. NAM is a a trap queen. lol Never fails. Everyone beats up the NAM until it does its thing. Then when it caves it gets beat on some more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 9Z SREFs jumped west from the 3Z run fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Wish TT had better maps for showing the NAVGEM You would like what it shows. 1" precip mark gets 25/30 west of the cities. Shows 2+ on portions of the eastern shore. Not going to look hard but it looks as if it would be mostly snow all the way to the eastern shore of MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: IF, and that's a BIG IF, we do get something decent, NAVGAM wins by a landslide. JV doesn't count Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 SREFs had the heavier setup yesterday! NAM & CMC caught up! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Fringed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Be careful of the 2m Temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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