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December 2017 Mid-Long Range Disco

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted

I am definitely not hating the 0z EPS. There are at least 2 threats in the day 6-12 window. The h5 pattern looks pretty darn sweet, and there are a couple periods with a decent upper jet configuration for the MA. Snow mean ticks up during that period as well. Need a digging shortwave or 2.

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Round Hill WX

Round Hill WX

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, rcflyermd68 said:

actually beg to differ since april precipitation has been very much below normal resevoirs in my area are bone dry. My feeling is there is nothing to suggest this is going to change this winter,. Cant prove anything just experience. Our normal fall rainfall has not materialized. Nothing in models has suggested any change in this pattern. I,m sure others will disagree

EURO weeklies agree with you. 

 

 

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I am definitely not hating the 0z EPS. There are at least 2 threats in the day 6-12 window. The h5 pattern looks pretty darn sweet, and there are a couple periods with a decent upper jet configuration for the MA. Snow mean ticks up during that period as well. Need a digging shortwave or 2.

Even if this weekend doesn't pan out I don't see the need for people to get down. We quite often don't score in favorable periods and as you said we have other opportunities just around the corner. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

My main concern a week or 2 ago was a northern stream dominant weather pattern and I brought it up a few times. Those can be very frustrating here. Especially early in the season and we're seeing that right now. It's hard to get a good track this far south. 

NS patterns are also really hard for models beyond a few days as well. We've seen that quite a few times in recent winters. Even if models were throwing out good solutions for the d6-8 period, would anyone have much confidence in the solutions?

The longer we stay in the game, the more chances we'll have. The game starts today and the end is TBD. Good luck and godspeed. 

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
Our time will come.  You can see a move towards more activity past 10 days.  I know 10 days but Mitch called 17-22 so that is what we can target.  Something will break through if we can keep cold

I dunno, first we looked at Dec 5th for something 10-days prior, then it was the 7th-8th, then the 10th, then the 12th, then there was the Dec 15th threat, now we have another window 10-days out. Usually when we are destined for a good winter we have at least 'something' surprise us early. Next 10 days are huge imho. Models and advertised patterns do look promising, but deep inside I have an uneasy feeling. Many including myself realize its only early December so there's that. But if this pattern is wasted and we head into the relaxed pattern guidance is starting to show in the LR, riots are going to ensue and the Panic Room will have a 'no vacancy' neon sign shining brightly in the front window
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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
2 hours ago, BristowWx said:
Our time will come.  You can see a move towards more activity past 10 days.  I know 10 days but Mitch called 17-22 so that is what we can target.  Something will break through if we can keep cold
 

I dunno, first we looked at Dec 5th for something 10-days prior, then it was the 7th-8th, then the 10th, then the 12th, then there was the Dec 15th threat, now we have another window 10-days out. Usually when we are destined for a good winter we have at least 'something' surprise us early. Next 10 days are huge imho. Models and advertised patterns do look promising, but deep inside I have an uneasy feeling. Many including myself realize its only early December so there's that. But if this pattern is wasted and we head into the relaxed pattern guidance is starting to show in the LR, riots are going to ensue and the Panic Room will have a 'no vacancy' neon sign shining brightly in the front window

The relaxation could easily be the catalyst to get someone going. 

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted

What, no pbp of the NAM? The snow weenies just aren't want they used to be. 

Just so you know. It's the same strung out piece of crap of low pressure off the coast that we have been seeing on the models, though it does look as if it has shifted north from the 06z run.

eta: Ahhh... I see fellow snow weenie @C.A.P.E. beat me to the punch. :)

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

What, no pbp of the NAM? The snow weenies just aren't want they used to be. 

Just so you know. It's the same strung out piece of crap of low pressure off the coast that we have been seeing on the models, though it does look as if it has shifted north from the 06z run.

eta: Ahhh... I see fellow snow weenie @C.A.P.E. beat me to the punch. :)

LOL

I was like wtf? Where is everybody!

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