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December 2017 Mid-Long Range Disco

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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osfan24

osfan24

Posted
Posted

A lot of the models from last night seem to have a similar swath of snow, just differing amounts/intensity. GGEM seemed over-amped (go figure!) as it reached our trajectory, but seem like most models now like some kind of flurries or light snow down to the gulf coast and then off the Carolina coast.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
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Looking over the overnight runs and it looks as if we have pretty much locked into a general solution in regards to a late Friday through Sat period for our region. We have a fast upper level flow that will run through our region that will put up a wall on the northern extent of precip. At this point that wall looks to set up just south and east of the DC/Balt corridor.

Now in the coming runs we will see this northern extent flex back and forth a touch from run to run. The interaction between the trough diving down into the Midwest and the ridging in the south Atlantic is one feature to look at in regards to this flexing. For those hoping to see snow we want to see the ridging to our east come in stronger. As far as the trough that is a much harder question to answer though. The models have been inconsistent to say the least with that feature so that is hard to nail down what we want to see. At this time I would probably favor a farther west, quicker, deeper drop of that feature to force the upper level flow on a more north/south orientation earlier in the Fri/Sat window. But if any wanted to argue with me on that I would not put up much of a fight. But all in all this interaction between the two is probably very limited on how much it can effect the flex, barring major changes with one or both of course.

The potential bigger player involved with how far north we see the precip actually comes is with what we see happen within the trough of low pressure off the coast. At this point the models just do not see strong enough energy to key on to our south (to be honest I don't either) so what we have is a strung out trough with waves of lower pressures streaming through it off the SE and mid-Atlantic coast. Basically this is not what we want to see for any hopes of snow because it basically creates no mechanism to help force the blocking upper level flow northward and leaves that solely in the hands of the trough/ridge interaction (which will likely have very little play). What we want/need to see is a distinct area of low pressure forming to our south, and the farther south and stronger the better. What this does is help push the blocker upper level flow northward as well as create a better ability to transport moisture north and westward. 

Now at this time nothing looks promising on the models in regards to a potential distinct low to our south (nor in my mind either). But I would caution that this may be a case where they do not pick up on strong enough energy at some level in the atmosphere until almost game time, if even then. Though at this point I don't expect it I will still be closely watching the pressures off the coast through that period of time.

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
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9 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

A lot of the models from last night seem to have a similar swath of snow, just differing amounts/intensity. GGEM seemed over-amped (go figure!) as it reached our trajectory, but seem like most models now like some kind of flurries or light snow down to the gulf coast and then off the Carolina coast.

Our time will come.  You can see a move towards more activity past 10 days.  I know 10 days but Mitch called 17-22 so that is what we can target.  Something will break through if we can keep cold

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Ji

Ji

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17 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Our time will come.  You can see a move towards more activity past 10 days.  I know 10 days but Mitch called 17-22 so that is what we can target.  Something will break through if we can keep cold

when we have to rely on lawyers for our snow hopes....

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
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8 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

The 6z GFS says its back to the drawing boards. Climo is really the best model out there.

 

Perhaps but the GEFS says to me there will be chances that come our way.  it remains rock solid for trough in the east and HL blocking...I don't know to what degree the blocking or what will happen at the surface but when I see that pattern as depicted going in to holidays I am encouraged as we head toward peak climo....it looks on the cool side of normal 

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rcflyermd68

rcflyermd68

Posted
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actually beg to differ since april precipitation has been very much below normal resevoirs in my area are bone dry. My feeling is there is nothing to suggest this is going to change this winter,. Cant prove anything just experience. Our normal fall rainfall has not materialized. Nothing in models has suggested any change in this pattern. I,m sure others will disagree

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