BristowWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: GFS going to try and make it up to us with a D12-14 event. I think mitch said 17-21 for active storm period...might be right on this..cold seems to overwhelming before that to allow anything to even sneak in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 GFS again has something during 16th/17th Only 3 days until it's within hr 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Looks like I need to go out to McHenry this weekend. Garrett/WV mountains may get a general 3-6" through Sunday (based on current guidance). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 I'm not counting anything out. We still have to wait for yoda say something interesting is brewing on a B&W GGEM map @168 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 I'd also gladly trade where we are now for where we were this time last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 I can't be upset with what I'm seeing. There will be plenty of cold, and the pattern seems conducive for small mini kickstarter events, which I'm fine with. I mean last year I moved here and I got... what, 2" total of snow? If even a single one of these little waves succeeds, I'll match all of last year, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 All eyes turn to the Euro Navgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2017 Author Share Posted December 4, 2017 GEFS follows the Op for both the coastal and clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: GEFS follows the Op for both the coastal and clipper. Was just about to say that. Yeah, as disappointing as could be expected. I'm hoping that in 24 hours things will look better, or else it's time to focus on future events. That or maybe we still get some of the event. Any snow in December would be fine imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, supernovasky said: I can't be upset with what I'm seeing. There will be plenty of cold, and the pattern seems conducive for small mini kickstarter events, which I'm fine with. I mean last year I moved here and I got... what, 2" total of snow? If even a single one of these little waves succeeds, I'll match all of last year, haha. I would be nice to score before Xmas...that is my bar...1inch or more that stays on the ground longer than a few days. That cant be too much to ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Mean still has 1"-1.5" through D7, which is a step down of around 1" from the 06z GEFS, but slightly above 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 I mentioned this yesterday but the steep and narrow ridge/valley look over NA on the EPS is not a good storm pattern. No room to amplify or draw up gulf moisture. The GFS backed off on the big ridge out west and broadened the LW trough over the conus. No surprise that something had a chance to amplify along the way. That's something to watch on ens going forward. A steep connected PNA/EPO rdige inhibits our snow chances. Let's hope things open up a little and let energy spend some time cruising W-E instead of N-S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Mean still has 1"-1.5" through D7, which is a step down of around 1" from the 06z GEFS, but slightly above 0z The individual members are not too excited. There is one biggie and 2 other decent ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: The individual members are not too excited. There is one biggie and 2 other decent ones. I mean, the good news is that at least a couple individual members still show it. Still, not good. As I previously stated a couple days ago, I'm hoping the guidance is showing the SE bias that was prevalent during the Jan 2017 storm and a couple in the last few years. I'm not sure if that'll happen, since I can recall the same amount of events that trended SE as those that trended NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Interesting to watch, GEFS ups mean 1" during the 15th to 16. If the GFS fantasyland storms have taught us anything, that might be a period to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2017 Author Share Posted December 4, 2017 Ukmet came west at 12z compared to 0z and has a stronger low. Looks like it maybe just scrapes I95 with measurable precip. edit...actually looks like more precip than that. Maybe a tenth or two for the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Just now, WxUSAF said: Ukmet came west at 12z compared to 0z and has a stronger low. Looks like it maybe just scrapes I95 with measurable precip. Good sign. And of course the 12z CMC suddenly found a post frontal wave. If the Euro improves a bit, on to Happy hour! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 39 minutes ago, supernovasky said: I can't be upset with what I'm seeing. There will be plenty of cold, and the pattern seems conducive for small mini kickstarter events, which I'm fine with. I mean last year I moved here and I got... what, 2" total of snow? If even a single one of these little waves succeeds, I'll match all of last year, haha. Yes, compared to last winter, this pattern is looking great. No sense in meltdowns now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 NAVGEM looks to have initial precip farther NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 55 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I think mitch said 17-21 for active storm period...might be right on this..cold seems to overwhelming before that to allow anything to even sneak in. How often does cold like it is depicted verify in December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 25 minutes ago, Cobalt said: I mean, the good news is that at least a couple individual members still show it. Still, not good. As I previously stated a couple days ago, I'm hoping the guidance is showing the SE bias that was prevalent during the Jan 2017 storm and a couple in the last few years. I'm not sure if that'll happen, since I can recall the same amount of events that trended SE as those that trended NW Has there really been any change in the models from five or so days ago. We were watching the Friday "coastal" trend toward the coast but now it's back to where it was before, maybe worse. Seems like too much cold suppresses any development south of us and the NS typically misses us to the north/northwest. The only constant is the obligatory ten to twelve day storm on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 10 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: How often does cold like it is depicted verify in December? Keep it simple. It's a BN temp pattern and every single piece of guidance out there agrees. How far below normal is similar to snow threats. Won't know until the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 GFS through the end of run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 GEFS panel through end of run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, supernovasky said: GFS through the end of run: poor Wes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 12 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: How often does cold like it is depicted verify in December? 2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Has there really been any change in the models from five or so days ago. We were watching the Friday "coastal" trend toward the coast but now it's back to where it was before, maybe worse. Seems like too much cold suppresses any development south of us and the NS typically misses us to the north/northwest. The only constant is the obligatory ten to twelve day storm on the models. you are right on both counts. Cold we got I think in the bag. we need NS vorts to get under us. A tall order perhaps as I am learning. GEFS has the pattern more relaxed but still looks decent enough for now. HL blocking still there. We seen worse that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 The one thing I like - not a single ensemble member shuts us out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1mb stronger Greenland block from the king hr 24. Will that enhance suppression? eta: 9s look like 0s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Brought out the B(F?)-Team models. We hug the German model. The Australian might be ok too. Brazilian doesn't have a low so we don't talk about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 COMPARING 0z RUN TO 12z, EURO HAS A LARGER PRECIP SHIELD DOWN SOUTH AT 72 HRS VS. 84 HRS. WE'LL SEE IF THAT MEANS ANYTHING, BUT IT'S BETTER THAN OTHERWISE p.s. pardon the caps....in a hurry and didn't look lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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