MJO812 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Meh result regardless It's going to phase with the northern low Great solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: What if h5 NS and SS were to phase. you can see more spacing at 0z not less. As modeled. Not happening and if it did it would benefit points further NE. Imo in this deal we want the northern stream vort to stay out of the way to let this gain latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Lions and lambs would live together in harmony. Ok..I guess it’s out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It's going to phase with the northern low Great solution Don't think that helps us down here even if it did (iow, assuming the NAM is right.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Weird that models are doing this. NAM has an organized Low in the Gulf, with open vort over the Great Lakes to at least partially phase... and it gets sheared out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Don't think that helps us down here even if it did (i.e. assuming the NAM is right.) Technically this will be a banter post, but realistically, I will say with 100% certainty that I would never assume anything form the 12km NAM at this point. That model is being replaced soon remember! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Technically this will be a banter post, but realistically, I will say with 100% certainty that I would never assume anything form the 12km NAM at this point. That model is being replaced soon remember! Agreed. I just found that h5 look intriguing as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 FWIW, NAVGEM is farther NW that last run 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, StormchaserChuck said: Weird that models are doing this. NAM has an organized Low in the Gulf, with open vort over the Great Lakes to at least partially phase... and it gets sheared out. IMO phase needs to happen earlier for that solution to work and a partial phase would stay open and not help to tug it back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 FWIW, NAVGEM is farther NW that last run 12z Problem is looking at the thickness that might very well just be rain. Close though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Technically this will be a banter post, but realistically, I will say with 100% certainty that I would never assume anything form the 12km NAM at this point. That model is being replaced soon remember!Where/when is the NAM getting replaced? Havent heard this. I know there were upgrades scheduled, didnt hear it was being put to rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: FWIW, NAVGEM is farther NW that last run 12z Just a bit lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 6 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Technically this will be a banter post, but realistically, I will say with 100% certainty that I would never assume anything form the 12km NAM at this point. That model is being replaced soon remember! Where/when is the NAM getting replaced? Havent heard this. I know there were upgrades scheduled, didnt hear it was being put to rest. Someone mentioned it here, so I'm the messenger on that. I was looking and came up empty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Where/when is the NAM getting replaced? Havent heard this. I know there were upgrades scheduled, didnt hear it was being put to rest. I think High Risk said last night that it's not being retired any time soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Problem is looking at the thickness that might very well just be rain. Close though. It’s good to see some of the less reliable models move west along with the SREFs which are probably useless at this range. 0z will be huge just to see where it takes us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I think High Risk said last night that it's not being retired any time soon. 2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I think High Risk said last night that it's not being retired any time soon. Soon is relative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 I’d rather get rained on than whiffed.I'll pass on the rain, but I'll take it as a good step back to what the NAVGEM was showing earlier. Hopefully it (and I guess the SREFS) keep a NW trend going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Problem is looking at the thickness that might very well just be rain. Close though. Not if you blend the coldest and wettest models. Chapter 2 page 6 of the weenie handbook clearly states that is the correct way the interpret any model suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Not if you blend the coldest and wettest models. Chapter 2 page 6 of the weenie handbook clearly states that is the correct way the interpret any model suite. Refer to the appendix for verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 990smb low over the great lakes and all we've had so far is a cold front. Mid to upper 40s if the precip stays offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 23 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Technically this will be a banter post, but realistically, I will say with 100% certainty that I would never assume anything form the 12km NAM at this point. That model is being replaced soon remember! Where/when is the NAM getting replaced? Havent heard this. I know there were upgrades scheduled, didnt hear it was being put to rest. I believe it’s getting replaced eventually with something resembling the SREFs. My understanding is it was going to be replaced by an ensemble vs a singular model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 0z is going in the wrong direction. At least I get to hit the rack early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Weenies do not..I repeat do not...look at the canadian...It’s a trap! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: Weenies do not..I repeat do not...look at the canadian...It’s a trap! I am watching the SW coming out of MT at 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, LP08 said: Weenies do not..I repeat do not...look at the canadian...It’s a trap! Lol, 1" for Corpus Christi, 3" for New Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 14 minutes ago, LP08 said: Weenies do not..I repeat do not...look at the canadian...It’s a trap! Well it has to be right once in a blue moon, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, yoda said: Well it has to be right once in a blue moon, no? What’s the phrase? Even a broken clock is right twice a day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said: What’s the phrase? Even a broken clock is right twice a day? Yes... too bad this is like the Uber weenie run... wonder if any GEFS members will support it, probably none Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: What’s the phrase? Even a broken clock is right twice a day? What a good phrase to end the night of model watching!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 37 minutes ago, BristowWx said: 0z is going in the wrong direction. At least I get to hit the rack early. Love hitting the rack anytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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