BristowWx Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: No reason not to seem Pessimistic. In fact, the better word would be cautious. If I were to make a forecast for the storm this weekend, I'd say 30% chance of snow. None of the Ops support it, but the good news is that they've moved NW. EPS/GEFS have moved NW. Could be setting up to bait us and turn SE next 3 days, but it's something to look out for That's my exact zone forecast...30% chance of snow Friday night. Ops need to move another 2 ticks NW like next set of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ji said: was this posted? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=jma®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017120512&fh=390&xpos=0&ypos=100 Big jump NW from previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: No reason not to seem Pessimistic. In fact, the better word would be cautious. If I were to make a forecast for the storm this weekend, I'd say 30% chance of snow. None of the Ops support it, but the good news is that they've moved NW. EPS/GEFS have moved NW. Could be setting up to bait us and turn SE next 3 days, but it's something to look out for I think Mitch or someone else stated the other day that we need to be reminded that patterns rarely flip right to favorable and snowy. The models trolled us a bit and while the solution is not yet set, we should still maintain optimism as we are just getting into the new regime change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 12z UKMET (based on the limited maps) is east. No measurable precip gets to 95 or even the Eastern Shore (limited to SE VA and VA portion of the Delmarva). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 22 minutes ago, Ji said: was this posted? You never fail!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 15 minutes ago, Cobalt said: We are certainly overdue for a cold/snowy winter. Last one where we had both of those in combination was 2013/14. 15/16 was Snowy, but not cold. 14/15 was cold but not too snowy (still above average). Cold + snowy winters happen once or twice a decade tops. If anything were due to be tortured and tormented. We've used up our allotment for the 2010-2020 period. If we get another one this year then I fear the 2020-2030 decade. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Cold + snowy winters happen once or twice a decade tops. If anything were due to be tortured and tormented. We've used up our allotment for the 2010-2020 period. If we get another one this year then I fear the 2020-2030 decade. Lol I mean, judging by our luck, 2020-2030 will feature some awful winters where the anomaly is 5F+, and some where we are brought back into an ice age with 3 feet of snowpack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Cold + snowy winters happen once or twice a decade tops. If anything were due to be tortured and tormented. We've used up our allotment for the 2010-2020 period. If we get another one this year then I fear the 2020-2030 decade. Lol Lol like we will be alive then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 I'm assuming we lost the German model since no one posted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Panasonic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 I can retire in 2030. I shall move north and enjoy my remaining days getting tired of snow. For people in Maine snow is the norm and rain is a novelty in winter. Imagine that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Lol like we will be alive then It's our kids' problem. Same reason I traded my suburban for a hemi ram last month. The more gas I burn the better I feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's our kids' problem. Same reason I traded my suburban for a hemi ram last month. The more gas I burn the better I feel. Love the roar of my 6.4 (392) Hemi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Love the roar of my 6.4 (392) Hemi I've had chevy and ford trucks for years. This is my first Mopar and I love it. The 8 speed/3.92 posi rear is a pulling machine. A 5200lb truck that does 0-60 in six and a half seconds is remarkable. My wife keeps finding excuses to drive it...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I'll take my 3.8 ( 231- bored 30 over ) turbo Buick . They used to call them black coffins when they came out....I found out why the first year I got my gn in 94' and drove in snow ..lol... but driving a 10sec V6 never ever gets old Nope. That will never get old. You will but not the car. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm assuming we lost the German model since no one posted it. It stops at 78 on meteocentre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 NAM will run soon. No one should pretend not to care...if you’re out of the good booze and that bottle of bubble gum vodka is in the cabinet because your wife thought it would be fun to try it...you’ll drink it in a pinch..the NAM is the bubble gum vodka of weather models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, yoda said: It stops at 78 on meteocentre Then someone needs to extrapolate it. Bunch of slackin goin on up in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 It stops at 78 on meteocentreThe "German Standard" on weather.us goes out longer at 0z and 12z. And yes, we lost it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Hmmm...that does seem like a decent jump in the GEFS snow total, if that's really worth anything. I'll note that we're getting close to the boundary of when the Op GFS should be favored over the GEFS, at least for the Friday-Saturday coastal mess. Maybe even for the 0z suite tonight, I'd probably weigh the Op more heavily. Especially for precip products, where the GEFS lower resolution will tend to smear out precip gradients, which is important for events like this. I still don't quite now if the same thing applies for the EPS vs. Euro Op. EPS members run at the same resolution as the GFS Op (I think), so I'm not sure when the Op tends to beat the EPS mean. For big-picture stuff (H5, sea level pressure) the GEFS keep up with the op pretty well at short range. The times I've checked, the ensemble is usually better even 72 hours out. I agree that the higher resolution of the op makes it more useful in determining the precip gradients and cutoffs. I'm beginning to think it might make sense to give more weight to the GFS op around the same time I start paying attention to the 3K NAM and RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 35 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I'll take my 3.8 ( 231- bored 30 over ) turbo Buick . They used to call them black coffins when they came out....I found out why the first year I got my gn in 94' and drove in snow ..lol... but driving a 10sec V6 never ever gets old One of my best friends in HS had a Buick GN he bought new - worked for GM and got the employee discount. What a beast it was in an era when there wasn't much manufactured by the big 3 in Detroit to get excited about. My daily driver is a 91 Silverado small block I bought new July of 91. Still only has 182k miles and no rust - none. Been in a heated/cooled garage most its life (when I was overseas) apart from one tour in Germany I took it with us. Even the AC still works with the original compressor. Tempted to get Antique tags, but here in VA you're limited to how much you can drive with them - legally that is... Should have seen the Germans when I had it on the Autobahn at 100+ They loved it. Would follow me to rest stops and ask to just hear it run. Would top out at 114 on a cold night (dense air has more oxygen), but it took weeks to get stopped. Who cares about gas mileage when you can get out and really enjoy the fahrvergnugen experience... Mods - sorry for the off-topic banter - can't resist... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Here.....since people are asking about all the obscure JV models. CRAS @ 84. Is that a triple phase along the Gulf in the works? :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 BIG jump west on the Srefs for 24 hour precip total. I think they use percentage chances, but whatever, it's a shift west This run is top and last run is bottom. I'll fix it once I make the post if necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 FWIW, 00z NAM at 78 nearly has a closed off h5 in NE LA/W MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: FWIW, 00z NAM at 78 nearly has a closed off h5 in NE LA/W MS Congrats New Orleans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 FWIW, 00z NAM at 78 nearly has a closed off h5 in NE LA/W MSWoo historic Gulf Coast snowstorm. It sure likes giving Pensacola snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: FWIW, 00z NAM at 78 nearly has a closed off h5 in NE LA/W MS NAM of is NW of prior runs and looks like it may continue the trends. Upstream looks slightly better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, yoda said: FWIW, 00z NAM at 78 nearly has a closed off h5 in NE LA/W MS Meh result regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: NAM of is NW of prior runs and looks like it may continue the trends. Upstream looks slightly better. What if h5 NS and SS were to phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: What if h5 NS and SS were to phase. Lions and lambs would live together in harmony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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