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December 2017 Mid-Long Range Disco

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, Cobalt said:

No reason not to seem Pessimistic. In fact, the better word would be cautious. If I were to make a forecast for the storm this weekend, I'd say 30% chance of snow. None of the Ops support it, but the good news is that they've moved NW. EPS/GEFS have moved NW. Could be setting up to bait us and turn SE next 3 days, but it's something to look out for

That's my exact zone forecast...30% chance of snow Friday night.  Ops need to move another 2 ticks NW like next set of runs.  

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

No reason not to seem Pessimistic. In fact, the better word would be cautious. If I were to make a forecast for the storm this weekend, I'd say 30% chance of snow. None of the Ops support it, but the good news is that they've moved NW. EPS/GEFS have moved NW. Could be setting up to bait us and turn SE next 3 days, but it's something to look out for

I think Mitch or someone else stated the other day that we need to be reminded that patterns rarely flip right to favorable and snowy. The models trolled us a bit and while the solution is not yet set, we should still maintain optimism as we are just getting into the new regime change. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

We are certainly overdue for a cold/snowy winter. Last one where we had both of those in combination was 2013/14. 15/16 was Snowy, but not cold. 14/15 was cold but not too snowy (still above average).

 

Cold + snowy winters happen once or twice a decade tops. If anything were due to be tortured and tormented. We've used up our allotment for the 2010-2020 period. If we get another one this year then I fear the 2020-2030 decade. Lol

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Cobalt

Cobalt

Posted
Posted
Just now, Bob Chill said:

Cold + snowy winters happen once or twice a decade tops. If anything were due to be tortured and tormented. We've used up our allotment for the 2010-2020 period. If we get another one this year then I fear the 2020-2030 decade. Lol

I mean, judging by our luck, 2020-2030 will feature some awful winters where the anomaly is 5F+, and some where we are brought back into an ice age with 3 feet of snowpack

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Love the roar of my 6.4 (392) Hemi

I've had chevy and ford trucks for years. This is my first Mopar and I love it. The 8 speed/3.92 posi rear is a pulling machine. A 5200lb truck that does 0-60 in six and a half seconds is remarkable. My wife keeps finding excuses to drive it...lol. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I'll take my 3.8 ( 231- bored 30 over ) turbo Buick . They used to call them black coffins when they came out....I found out why the first year I got my gn in 94' and  drove in snow ..lol... but driving a 10sec V6  never ever gets oldB)

Nope. That will never get old. You will but not the car. Haha

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted

NAM will run soon.  No one should pretend not to care...if you’re out of the good booze and that bottle of bubble gum vodka is in the cabinet because your wife thought it would be fun to try it...you’ll drink it in a pinch..the NAM is the bubble gum vodka of weather models.  

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cae

cae

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Hmmm...that does seem like a decent jump in the GEFS snow total, if that's really worth anything.  I'll note that we're getting close to the boundary of when the Op GFS should be favored over the GEFS, at least for the Friday-Saturday coastal mess.  Maybe even for the 0z suite tonight, I'd probably weigh the Op more heavily.   Especially for precip products, where the GEFS lower resolution will tend to smear out precip gradients, which is important for events like this.   

I still don't quite now if the same thing applies for the EPS vs. Euro Op.  EPS members run at the same resolution as the GFS Op (I think), so I'm not sure when the Op tends to beat the EPS mean.  

For big-picture stuff (H5, sea level pressure) the GEFS keep up with the op pretty well at short range.  The times I've checked, the ensemble is usually better even 72 hours out.  I agree that the higher resolution of the op makes it more useful in determining the precip gradients and cutoffs.  I'm beginning to think it might make sense to give more weight to the GFS op around the same time I start paying attention to the 3K NAM and RGEM.

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RDM

RDM

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I'll take my 3.8 ( 231- bored 30 over ) turbo Buick . They used to call them black coffins when they came out....I found out why the first year I got my gn in 94' and  drove in snow ..lol... but driving a 10sec V6  never ever gets oldB)

One of my best friends in HS had a Buick GN he bought new - worked for GM and got the employee discount.  What a beast it was in an era when there wasn't much manufactured by the big 3 in Detroit to get excited about.

  My daily driver is a 91 Silverado small block I bought new July of 91.  Still only has 182k miles and no rust - none.  Been in a heated/cooled garage most its life (when I was overseas) apart from one tour in Germany I took it with us.  Even the AC still works with the original compressor.  Tempted to get Antique tags, but here in VA you're limited to how much you can drive with them - legally that is... Should have seen the Germans when I had it on the Autobahn at 100+   They loved it.  Would follow me to rest stops and ask to just hear it run.  Would top out at 114 on a cold night (dense air has more oxygen), but it took weeks to get stopped.  Who cares about gas mileage when you can get out and really enjoy the fahrvergnugen experience...   

Mods - sorry for the off-topic banter - can't resist...

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