Vice-Regent Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck said: It's very strange that this is showing up so suppressed. and we begin ticking west from here. All along I suspected this would be a rainstorm for the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: 18z GFS looks NW for sure 12z It's hitting the exact same road block even though the precip field expanded some. Nobody knows from here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Sunday looks better thru 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 ...and then it hits the Apps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Sunday looks better thru 102 Don't worry, the mountains will eat it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Sunday looks better thru 102 It did look better at h5...than 12z...all we can say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 150 has my intention, dang....Kocin is watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 18z GFS hr 156 h5 chart made me look twice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 h5 interaction ongoing at hr 168... digging at 174... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, yoda said: h5 interaction ongoing at hr 168... digging at 174... It’s a great pass....just gets going to late as the trough goes negative about 12 hours late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 First flakes at 184. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 GEFS ups mean once again thru Sunday Looks like it decreased precip mean, but that looks to be explained by this cold front producing less rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2017 Author Share Posted December 5, 2017 Hmmm...that does seem like a decent jump in the GEFS snow total, if that's really worth anything. I'll note that we're getting close to the boundary of when the Op GFS should be favored over the GEFS, at least for the Friday-Saturday coastal mess. Maybe even for the 0z suite tonight, I'd probably weigh the Op more heavily. Especially for precip products, where the GEFS lower resolution will tend to smear out precip gradients, which is important for events like this. I still don't quite now if the same thing applies for the EPS vs. Euro Op. EPS members run at the same resolution as the GFS Op (I think), so I'm not sure when the Op tends to beat the EPS mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: GEFS ups mean once again thru Sunday Looks like it decreased precip mean, but that looks to be explained by this cold front producing less rain Impressive to say the least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Here's the individual ensemble runs. Only 1 outlier for huge snow and a bunch of good ones 16/20 show at least some snow, so I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Personally I don't really care about any clipper potential Sunday ATM so here is the GEFS sans any clipper action Sat/Sun. It's certainly nothing to scoff at 4 days out, but with zilch OP agreement on anything substantial in the past couple days I think it's just prolonging our disappointment. Not sure why the image isn't working but it slightly lowers the mean. 8 with +2" at DCA 14 with at least an inch 4 with nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 In great winters, we find a way to score measurable snows in close situations like the coming weekend. So figure this weekend as a test for the season. Not a final, but first important one in my weenie mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Personally I don't really care about any clipper potential Sunday ATM so here is the GEFS sans any clipper action Sat/Sun. It's certainly nothing to scoff at 4 days out, but with zilch OP agreement on anything substantial in the past couple days I think it's just prolonging our disappointment. The image didn't work, at least on my computer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 GEFS for next Wednesday Still pretty mixed signals, but hey I see 3 that show snow. That's something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: In great winters, we find a way to score measurable snows in close situations like the coming weekend. So figure this weekend as a test for the season. Not a final, but first important one in my weenie mind. Funny, I had that thought earlier today. Some winters just want to snow. Let's hope this is one of those winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Timing has really slowed on some of those members.. a couple have it snowing on Sat afternoon .. 24 hours ago it was a Fri/ Fri night storm. This could be a good thing I think Pretty sure that's a great thing. If I remember correctly the Blizzard of 2016 was forecast to start during Thursday night, but the models made the onset later and later, at one point Friday night, while the storm did start at Noon for DC. Odd example, but what I'm trying to say is it's probably a good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Timing has really slowed on some of those members.. a couple have it snowing on Sat afternoon .. 24 hours ago it was a Fri/ Fri night storm. This could be a good thing I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Looking at hour 84 12z was much more consolidated with the lows . 18z is much more spread with locations. I was intrigued by 18z Gefs actually esp for places southeast of me . Mind if you post the 12z? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 27 minutes ago, Cobalt said: GEFS for next Wednesday Still pretty mixed signals, but hey I see 3 that show snow. That's something I like seeing the rainers mixed in because that suggests that further west remains a viable option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 53 minutes ago, mitchnick said: In great winters, we find a way to score measurable snows in close situations like the coming weekend. So figure this weekend as a test for the season. Not a final, but first important one in my weenie mind. Can’t agree more and it’s fair to say that many of us are due for a winter that it just wants to snow. With the indicies on our side, the snow pain index may need to add a few more numbers beyond 10 if we can’t score a little in the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 47 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Here's the individual ensemble runs. Only 1 outlier for huge snow and a bunch of good ones 16/20 show at least some snow, so I'll take it I find this fascinating because we haven't had an op run show snow for couple days. We are inside 96. We are still in but I feel lousy about it. Pessimistic I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Can’t agree more and it’s fair to say that many of us are due for a winter that it just wants to snow. With the indicies on our side, the snow pain index may need to add a few more numbers beyond 10 if we can score a little in the next few weeks. We are certainly overdue for a cold/snowy winter. Last one where we had both of those in combination was 2013/14. 15/16 was Snowy, but not cold. 14/15 was cold but not too snowy (still above average). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 16 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Looking at hour 84 esp ... 12z was much more consolidated with the lows . 18z is much more spread with locations. I was intrigued by 18z Gefs actually esp for places southeast of me . Still some spread in time and location, but if you look at the last few runs, it looks like 18z has more members with lows(some deeper) and in a more favorable location for the same time period. Or maybe I have a had a few too many drinks and I think my glass is half full Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 was this posted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I find this fascinating because we haven't had an op run show snow for couple days. We are inside 96. We are still in but I feel lousy about it. Pessimistic I suppose. No reason not to seem Pessimistic. In fact, the better word would be cautious. If I were to make a forecast for the storm this weekend, I'd say 30% chance of snow. None of the Ops support it, but the good news is that they've moved NW. EPS/GEFS have moved NW. Could be setting up to bait us and turn SE next 3 days, but it's something to look out for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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