yoda Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Through 5 days... 8 out of 20 (40%) with 2" or more... we take that chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, yoda said: 8 out of 20 (40%) with 2" or more... we take that chance When the operational model of one of the model suites shows more than the ensemble mean, that's when I get excited fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Not a bad splattering of solutions for d8... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Not a bad splattering of solutions for d8... D8 actually has potential. Even if the storm is North, we can potentially get a rain to snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: D8 actually has potential. Even if the storm is North, we can potentially get a rain to snow event because that always works out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Definitely more precip along the Gulf coast this run than last night's at 54 on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: D8 actually has potential. Even if the storm is North, we can potentially get a rain to snow event It would likely be snow or nothing. If development and/or track happens north then we get nothing. If we can get a good track south of us then it would be snow. It's not the type of northern stream system that would be rain to snow unless it's wound up to our west. That seems unlikely because anything would be fairly weak until it hits the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Definitely more precip along the Gulf coast this run than last night's at 54 on euro False hope...I'm curious about D7/8. Sigh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: False hope...I'm curious about D7/8. Sigh... 1/25/........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Looks similar to 0z. Can we get a comparison of the 0z Euro and the 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Looks similar to 0z. Can we get a comparison of the 0z Euro and the 12z? comparison of what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, mappy said: comparison of what? Snowfall/extent of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Hmmm... quite a notable shift NW with the sig precip shield over NC/VA through 84.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: Snowfall/extent of precip have fun http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf.php click the model runs below the main image to toggle back and forth between current run and previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 84 looks better re precip shield... EDIT: Ninja'd by the great Bob Chill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Looks good for Salisbury..went from a dusting at 0z to 7 inches via WB @ hr 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Hmmm... quite a notable shift NW with the sig precip shield over NC/VA through 84.... Just gunna post that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Le Sigh ETA: Nice shift NW from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, mappy said: have fun http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf.php click the model runs below the main image to toggle back and forth between current run and previous run. I'm aware of that website, but I wasn't signed in to weatherbell on my phone, so I couldn't check precip/snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: I'm aware of that website, but I wasn't signed in to weatherbell on my phone, so I couldn't check precip/snow Oh. Sorry. I was trying to be helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, mappy said: Oh. Sorry. I was trying to be helpful. No worries! I should've been more specific of what I was asking, so it's kinda my fault Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 It was a pretty decent shift NW with the extent of the precip 12z to last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Looking at the 12z Euro, it's what we want to see. No one was expecting a big shift NW within 12 hours, but it's a great start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Pretty nice improvement. 0z had a dusting for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 By 00z sun, 12z has 8” in KSBY, was a dusting per 00z edit: ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 43 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The 12z gefs does offer a little hope. The few members with the bigger hits on the Fri-Sat deal are the one that key on the final piece of energy. Considering the fairly significant changes that have already happened in the last 24 hours, there's no reason to completely discount the chance that the final trailing wave does something. After looking at the trends yesterday and last night I sort of decided we should be rooting for the trailing wave not the Friday morning one. I didn't want to say that directly though because i didn't want to start a fight with those pulling for wave 1 on the eastern shore but it's become apparent now so no harm saying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, mappy said: By 00z sun, 12z has 8” in KSBY, was a dusting per 00z edit: ninja'd That is a wonky looking snow map with that smallish heavy snow area, and tight gradient/cutoff. Not gonna happen like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 can someone smarter than me explain why the Euro shifted NW with the precip compared to 00z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2017 Author Share Posted December 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: That is a wonky looking snow map with that smallish heavy snow area, and tight gradient/cutoff. Not gonna happen like that. I think it’s suggesting that snow is mostly only accumulating in the heaviest precip area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: After looking at the trends yesterday and last night I sort of decided we should be rooting for the trailing wave not the Friday morning one. I didn't want to say that directly though because i didn't want to start a fight with those pulling for wave 1 on the eastern shore but it's become apparent now so no harm saying it. Yep, definitely all in on the trailing wave. Unless you live at the beaches, the first wave looks like a cloudy day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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