Z-Cast Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, supernovasky said: Got a little something going on at the end of the run too. So 3 portions are conducive to at least getting flakes. Better than the 06z. 1 and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 DT talking about the chances for next week's potential snow event as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Wow.. he even called it on the dot 1 month ago. Hopefully we can get in on the fun and not just points north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: DT talking about the chances for next week's potential snow event as well Be careful I don't think DT thinks our area is NE. He might be talking about philly northeast there. His regions are always vague then he plays around with them to his advantage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 After looking over things a little I think the coastal potential is far from dead. Think the GFS is flipping from keying on one piece of energy earlier in the flow to now another later in the flow and the last couple/few runs have been in the middle of that process. What leads me to believe this is we are seeing later and later development of the coastal as well as are now seeing low pressure anomalies building in the SE a little later in the process on the last few runs. We could definitely see the GFS never really key on any one piece of energy, as we see now on this run, and end up with a the strung out mess with weak sauce lows running through it. But we could also see the GFS finally fully commit to the second piece of energy which would probably mean a stronger more consolidated low later in the period. Where it would track would be anyone's guess though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: Be careful I don't think DT thinks our area is NE. He might be talking about philly northeast there. His regions are always vague then he plays around with them to his advantage. I hear you. I was cautious before looking at the post. If we can get anything out of it, I'm happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, showmethesnow said: After looking over things a little I think the coastal potential is far from dead. Think the GFS is flipping from keying on one piece of energy earlier in the flow to now another later in the flow and the last couple/few runs have been in the middle of that process. What leads me to believe this is we are seeing later and later development of the coastal as well as are now seeing low pressure anomalies building in the SE a little later in the process on the last few runs. We could definitely see the GFS never really key on any one piece of energy, as we see now on this run, and end up with a the strung out mess with weak sauce lows running through it. But we could also see the GFS finally fully commit to the second piece of energy which would probably mean a stronger more consolidated low later in the period. Where it would track would be anyone's guess though. Yup. These types of costals always go down to the wire. Even within 12 hours of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: After looking over things a little I think the coastal potential is far from dead. Think the GFS is flipping from keying on one piece of energy earlier in the flow to now another later in the flow and the last couple/few runs have been in the middle of that process. What leads me to believe this is we are seeing later and later development of the coastal as well as are now seeing low pressure anomalies building in the SE a little later in the process on the last few runs. We could definitely see the GFS never really key on any one piece of energy, as we see now on this run, and end up with a the strung out mess with weak sauce lows running through it. But we could also see the GFS finally fully commit to the second piece of energy which would probably mean a stronger more consolidated low later in the period. Where it would track would be anyone's guess though. I don't disagree, but we really need to start to get some model support from a legit model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 19 minutes ago, Cobalt said: DT talking about the chances for next week's potential snow event as well CMC has the low and most of the snow is east of the CT river. Not surprised given the low position on the map looks too far NE for us. Don't know if anyone has the ENS snow maps but only the 978mb low off OC looks like it would be a big hit. The rest look minor or miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Be careful I don't think DT thinks our area is NE. He might be talking about philly northeast there. His regions are always vague then he plays around with them to his advantage. right...we are the MA in his vernacular. in other news, I like from a strategic pattern sense that even at 384 things still look pretty good. just looking at the players on the field. Nothing screams big ridge in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 GEFS through Saturday afternoon. There's still hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, Cobalt said: I hear you. I was cautious before looking at the post. If we can get anything out of it, I'm happy I'm not saying he isn't talking about us. Nor am I saying his call is bad, he identified that window a while ago and it's legit, just I never take his vague initial ideas too seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 10 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: After looking over things a little I think the coastal potential is far from dead. Think the GFS is flipping from keying on one piece of energy earlier in the flow to now another later in the flow and the last couple/few runs have been in the middle of that process. What leads me to believe this is we are seeing later and later development of the coastal as well as are now seeing low pressure anomalies building in the SE a little later in the process on the last few runs. We could definitely see the GFS never really key on any one piece of energy, as we see now on this run, and end up with a the strung out mess with weak sauce lows running through it. But we could also see the GFS finally fully commit to the second piece of energy which would probably mean a stronger more consolidated low later in the period. Where it would track would be anyone's guess though. 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I don't disagree, but we really need to start to get some model support from a legit model Yep to both... the gfs is technically trending towards a nam type solution. The runs earlier with snow did it with an initial wave and no second wave. Since then it's been weakening the front runner and putting more into a second wave. However it's stuck in between now with two strung out weak waves. The problem is that often is how it will go and just because the gfs is trending towards a slower second wave doesn't mean it keeps trending that way or ends up with a strong enough system to help us. I will give it another run or two but we need to see improvements soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 10 minutes ago, Cobalt said: GEFS through Saturday afternoon. There's still hope Is that because of one or two huge outliers though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 34 minutes ago, yoda said: luckily its 8 lol It’s the Hanukkah miracle storm! See what I did there... 8 days away. 8 days of Hanukkah . 8 days until the 12th...the first day of Hanukkah. Always dreamed of a white Hanukkah...spinning dreidels in the snowdrifts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 55 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We both know the weekend deal(s) aren't dead yet. Well, dead right now but subject to resurrection or zombification. Something like that. I live and die by snowfall maps. 43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The threats showing up later next week are way more indicative of how we typically score in patterns like this though so it has that going for it. I know I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2017 Author Share Posted December 5, 2017 GEFS looks fairly consistent in having the D7-8 storm well north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GEFS looks fairly consistent in having the D7-8 storm well north of us. Teleconnection trends support that unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 For the weekend threats I'm out and I'm in. Thats for them both individually and combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, H2O said: For the weekend threats I'm out and I'm in. Thats for them both individually and combined. And I thought the models were wishy washy. - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: And I thought the models were wishy washy. - I thought it was all Chuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 GEFS through 10 days doesn't look half bad. Doesn't even include any of the day 10+ threats that are in the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 36 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I don't disagree, but we really need to start to get some model support from a legit model yup, I don't think it's dead either and I haven't given up hope, but I need to see something soon...latest runs are discouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 23 minutes ago, yoda said: Is that because of one or two huge outliers though? 24hr mean precip went east from 6z. That's the most important (and nasogreat) trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, supernovasky said: GEFS through 10 days doesn't look half bad. Doesn't even include any of the day 10+ threats that are in the op. We all know it is going to be e11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 The 12z gefs does offer a little hope. The few members with the bigger hits on the Fri-Sat deal are the one that key on the final piece of energy. Considering the fairly significant changes that have already happened in the last 24 hours, there's no reason to completely discount the chance that the final trailing wave does something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: The 12z gefs does offer a little hope. The few members with the bigger hits on the Fri-Sat deal are the one that key on the final piece of energy. Considering the fairly significant changes that have already happened in the last 24 hours, there's no reason to completely discount the chance that the final trailing wave does something. so you're saying there's a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 so you're saying there's a chance. Through 5 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, mappy said: so you're saying there's a chance. Absolutely. Not only is there a chance, it's our most common MA chance.....slim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 e1 def has a chance to verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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