Ralph Wiggum Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: Still a large amount of h5 energy at hr 84 on 12z NAM down in the south Posted in NYC if the NAM was any good at that range and reliable it would probably being implying a nice SECS+ post 84 hours for DC-BOS. However, it looks alone in it's evolution of the trof and energy post 60 hrs no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 26 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: 12z NAM looks interesting.......I know its the NAM in long range but still. If you live on the eastern shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Posted in NYC if the NAM was any good at that range and reliable it would probably being implying a nice SECS+ post 84 hours for DC-BOS. However, it looks alone in it's evolution of the trof and energy post 60 hrs no? as of now yes. we will find out shortly who else is on this island. it would be easy to dismiss it but deep down we want it to be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 37 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Wish I could dig up the runs from that 1st week in January before that storm. Same situation. Cold front came in, and during that and after the models ticked up NW A lot more separation though. There was a clipper between the front and the wave even. Not saying this can't come north just pointing out synoptic differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, Interstate said: If you live on the eastern shore Yes and No. It's a shame Tropical Tidbits doesn't have 700mb RH maps. Sooooo, we go to the old standby NCEP site. Click on the link below and it is set at the 700mb RH maps then click on "Loop All." You'll see that the deep RH IS making it into our area. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=nam&area=namer&cycle=20171205 12 UTC¶m=700_rh_ht&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps=model&fhr_mode=image&loop_start=-1&loop_end=-1&skip_num=undefined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: A lot more separation though. There was a clipper between the front and the wave even. Not saying this can't come north just pointing out synoptic differences. True. Only similarity I can think of is that a cold front came in on that Tuesday. Good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 trend trend trend... really observe these patterns and time of year. Has value. This is a really warm flow, potential for +15 to +20 temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 33 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: 12z NAM looks interesting.......I know its the NAM in long range but still. Others are free to disagree and many do but I've never minded the NAM being mentioned. We all know its limitations and as long as we don't spend all day analyzing it, by the time the gfs is running it needs to be over, but just pointing it out isn't hurting anyone. It's there. It's a price of guidance if not the best. We bring up the jma ggem and German models and those are jv players too. So long as we don't give it much weight by itself I see no harm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Others are free to disagree and many do but I've never minded the NAM being mentioned. We all know its limitations and as long as we don't spend all day analyzing it, by the time the gfs is running it needs to be over, but just pointing it out isn't hurting anyone. It's there. It's a price of guidance if not the best. We bring up the jma ggem and German models and those are jv players too. So long as we don't give it much weight by itself I see no harm. Truth.. everyone here loves when we get NAM'ed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 22 minutes ago, Interstate said: If you live on the eastern shore The nam misses with the first wave Friday morning just like the globals. But it's developing a second wave in the southeast coast behind it as the upper level energy is digging into the trough. A development most of the other guidance (except a few outlier ens runs) doesn't show. It's probably about to go nuts in the next few frames after 84 judging by the flow. But unless more reliable guidance picks up on that idea it's irrelevant. And that's as much as I'm willing to analyze a nam run at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The nam misses with the first wave Friday morning just like the globals. But it's developing a second wave in the southeast coast behind it as the upper level energy is digging into the trough. A development most of the other guidance (except a few outlier ens runs) doesn't show. It's probably about to go nuts in the next few frames after 84 judging by the flow. But unless more reliable guidance picks up on that idea it's irrelevant. And that's as much as I'm willing to analyze a nam run at 84 hours. fwiw, it's the same thing the German did yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: fwiw, it's the same thing the German did yesterday. A few outliers in the gefs and EPS do that too. Those crazy solutions mixed in are from a second wave not the first. The wave Friday morning just won't have enough room to go crazy. Flow is too flat. Not saying that can't end up dropping a modest snowfall but the (possible) second wave would have higher end potential as the trough is becoming more amplified by then with the energy digging down the Midwest. To take that idea seriously though I want to see something more reliable in the 12z suite trend that way. Either a gfs or euro op or a higher percentage of the ensemble members going that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The nam misses with the first wave Friday morning just like the globals. But it's developing a second wave in the southeast coast behind it as the upper level energy is digging into the trough. A development most of the other guidance (except a few outlier ens runs) doesn't show. It's probably about to go nuts in the next few frames after 84 judging by the flow. But unless more reliable guidance picks up on that idea it's irrelevant. And that's as much as I'm willing to analyze a nam run at 84 hours. Think the GEFS was hinting at the possibility yesterday. Was showing bending of the isobars and low pressure anomalies showing up in NC/southern VA as the low was departing. Wasn't sure if it could be attributed to low pressure that forms on the lee of the mountains from a westerly flow or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Looking at the 12z GFS through 66... i think this may look a lil better than 06z... i think looking at 250mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Think the GEFS was hinting at the possibility yesterday. Was showing bending of the isobars and low pressure anomalies showing up in NC/southern VA as the low was departing. Wasn't sure if it could be attributed to low pressure that forms on the lee of the mountains from a westerly flow or not. No you're right it's in there. There are 6 gefs members that went nuts with a second wave and a few others that had a second wave but split the energy between wave 1/2. Less EPS members but a few did that also. But the nam/German like solution is within the ensembles. However it was mostly at a "noise" level. I want to see either one reliable op or an uptick in ensemble support to feel it's a more viable outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The nam misses with the first wave Friday morning just like the globals. But it's developing a second wave in the southeast coast behind it as the upper level energy is digging into the trough. A development most of the other guidance (except a few outlier ens runs) doesn't show. It's probably about to go nuts in the next few frames after 84 judging by the flow. But unless more reliable guidance picks up on that idea it's irrelevant. And that's as much as I'm willing to analyze a nam run at 84 hours. Yes I agree... but you can see with the flow, it would only hit the eastern shore. We would need to see the precip field in Tenn for anything meaningful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Gfs is still keying on the first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 blah this hobby sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs is still keying on the first wave. also looks like that vort in the PJ is kicking it OTS as i mentioned earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs is still keying on the first wave. And it's trying hard to come up the coast. We still have three days for just minor adjustments. I think there's still time for those adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 500mb looks like crap for anything on Sat/Sun....not digging at all to help our backyards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs is still keying on the first wave. If you click through the 8 previous runs @ h5, the GFS has morphed the entire evolution/trough into weak sauce with the 12z run being the weakest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 9 minutes ago, Interstate said: Yes I agree... but you can see with the flow, it would only hit the eastern shore. We would need to see the precip field in Tenn for anything meaningful. Your missing what's going on down in the gulf coast there but it's the nam and it's mostly unsupported so this isn't worth more analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 if there ever were a reason not to look at snowfall maps....go take a peek. this sport can be brutal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 GFS shows a crusher. 6-12" for DC and points NW Just kidding. Enjoy your cold and dry weather for the next month and a half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 57 minutes ago, yoda said: Still a large amount of h5 energy at hr 84 on 12z NAM down in the south... looks like a very potent s/w And that is exactly what we need. The stronger the better. I am not feeling good about any of this weekend for out here. But I still think you guys to east are in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: GFS shows a crusher. 6-12" for DC and points NW its only 383 hours away..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Actually, the precip extent looks better for 12z until the storm gets close to DC 6z Instead of encouraging the storm to push NW like in the 6z, if just scoots out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: GFS shows a crusher. 6-12" for DC and points NW Just kidding. Enjoy your cold and dry weather for the next month and a half here we are waiting on a pattern change and waiting for another pattern change. The cold is undeniable unless you ask Chuck...but that flow with everything sharp and east will just yield dry skin. I looked at h5 like Bob said. you can see how things have just dampened out. It will be tough outside the mountains to even see first flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2017 Author Share Posted December 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If you click through the 8 previous runs @ h5, the GFS has morphed the entire evolution/trough into weak sauce with the 12z run being the weakest. And it again totally kills the vort for the clipper. It has bounced all over the place with the shortwave placement and strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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