Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 EPS went all 18z gefs on us. lol. Ji does not approve DT will be retracting his aleet shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Eps flat out stink Edit: ninja'd by 4 seconds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 On 12/13/2017 at 7:59 PM, WVclimo said: GEPS looks kinda chilly to end the year: Expand Not possible it's 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 EPS buries that SW trough and barely moves it day 10-15. Here's the 5 day mean. Plenty of time to change but it was significant shift in the wrong direction from the last 3 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 On 12/13/2017 at 8:15 PM, Bob Chill said: EPS went all 18z gefs on us. lol. Ji does not approve DT will be retracting his aleet shortly. Expand Huge SER. The model inconsistencies continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 On 12/13/2017 at 8:15 PM, Bob Chill said: EPS went all 18z gefs on us. lol. Ji does not approve DT will be retracting his aleet shortly. Expand meh...its not the worst look. Seems like the SW trough is really overdone. wouldnt take much for it to be a much better look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 EPS buries that SW trough and barely moves it day 10-15. Here's the 5 day mean. Plenty of time to change but it was significant shift in the wrong direction from the last 3 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Now what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 IDK Ji. It was a pretty terrible run. The last 3 runs progress forward from the d10 sw trough. 12z run doesn't do that at all. It's just one run but it looks pretty much the same as the 18z gefs last night. That's 2 ensemble runs in 24 hours showing a pretty stout SE ridge. Good thing we have 10 days to hope it goes away for good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 On 12/13/2017 at 8:25 PM, Bob Chill said: IDK Ji. It was a pretty terrible run. The last 3 runs progress forward from the d10 sw trough. 12z run doesn't do that at all. It's just one run but it looks pretty much the same as the 18z gefs last night. That's 2 ensemble runs in 24 hours showing a pretty stout SE ridge. Good thing we have 10 days to hope it goes away for good. Expand well its the GEFS/GEPS vs the EPS.....that sounds more assuring than the GGEM/GFS vs EURO. We can always use the euro likes to hold things in the SW weenie rule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 On 12/13/2017 at 8:30 PM, Ji said: well its the GEFS/GEPS vs the EPS.....that sounds more assuring than the GGEM/GFS vs EURO. We can always use the euro likes to hold things in the SW weenie rule Expand My guess is the return to cold is coming one way or another before the end of the month. The differences on the ens is timing differences and not whether or not the return to cold exists so that's good. Would be nice to not have a warm holiday though but we can't do S about it one way or the other. The good thing is the pattern transition is looking to be pretty wet in the SE/MA. Would prefer to see that versus a cold arctic front followed by dews in the single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 On 12/13/2017 at 8:35 PM, Bob Chill said: My guess is the return to cold is coming one way or another before the end of the month. The differences on the ens is timing differences and not whether or not the return to cold exists so that's good. Would be nice to not have a warm holiday though but we can't do S about it one way or the other. The good thing is the pattern transition is looking to be pretty wet in the SE/MA. Would prefer to see that versus a cold arctic front followed by dews in the single digits. Expand yep....would be crushed if we wait all this time to get into a wet pattern and its all rain. I looked at Raleighwx charts for MJO and for DJF, phase 1 us usually a eastern trough...guess that is also something to watch. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmf.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 and as usual, the NAO is obscenely positive lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 we havent had a -NAO this December according to this chart despite all those great ensemble/weeklies runs a few weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 i can never tell if chuck is calling for a blizzard or a mass warm up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 On 12/13/2017 at 8:40 PM, Ji said: we havent had a -NAO this December according to this chart despite all those great ensemble/weeklies runs a few weeks ago. Expand Tomorrow's ensembles. Might have one...just wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 If I were to guess, the EPS might be a bit behind of the GEFS. The GEFS was the first model to latch on to the potential of SE ridge during Christmas, and then the EPS followed that idea a day later. The EPS might be playing a bit of catch-up. Still a big improvement from 24 hours ago. This room turned into the panic room... lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 On 12/13/2017 at 8:35 PM, Bob Chill said: My guess is the return to cold is coming one way or another before the end of the month. The differences on the ens is timing differences and not whether or not the return to cold exists so that's good. Would be nice to not have a warm holiday though but we can't do S about it one way or the other. The good thing is the pattern transition is looking to be pretty wet in the SE/MA. Would prefer to see that versus a cold arctic front followed by dews in the single digits. Expand This. If it were not for people trying to will a Christmas storm in here, the large takeaway would be that at some point from there to early January, the cold will return, along with moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Excited about the Stratosphere warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 The GFS OP backed off on it's crazy 591dm EPO block solution. Now it agrees with the euro on a more Reasonable looking ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 On 12/13/2017 at 9:48 PM, StormchaserChuck said: Excited about the Stratosphere warming. Expand Only warming I see is on the GFS 384, and not much of that is making it above 60N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Strange behavior with the NAO is reflected by new Stratosphere anomaly... Peak and center is variable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 On 12/13/2017 at 8:44 PM, Ji said: i can never tell if chuck is calling for a blizzard or a mass warm up! Expand So super confuzzled. Depends on which way he straddles the baroclinic zone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Jaws Music Plays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Op way out of range or not, I really like seeing what the gfs is showing @ h5 by d8. The ridge axis centered on the west coast with even just a little help from the NAO can allow things to amplify AND keep us on the cold side. At least we were spared staring @ a SE ridge/SW trough this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 That is the festivus miracle storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Nice Day 9 snowstorm on the 18z GFS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Jaws Music Gets Louder If only if only. 9 days out... Edit: GEFS does support some precip here somewhat Snowfall mean also jumps up 2" from the 21st-25th. Maybe we do get some wintry precip then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Day 9 is looking... reallllly good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 GFS snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.