eurojosh Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 I hate to be that guy, but GFS at 48 looks a bit better, precip shield on the trailing wave further north, touching Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 On 12/4/2017 at 9:41 PM, eurojosh said: I hate to be that guy, but GFS at 48 looks a bit better, precip shield on the trailing wave further north, touching Arkansas. Expand I saw that but didn't want to mention. I am bad luck..those were my mothers dying words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 On 12/4/2017 at 9:41 PM, eurojosh said: I hate to be that guy, but GFS at 48 looks a bit better, precip shield on the trailing wave further north, touching Arkansas. Expand Be that guy! Make it a happy hour regardless of the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 On 12/4/2017 at 9:41 PM, eurojosh said: I hate to be that guy, but GFS at 48 looks a bit better, precip shield on the trailing wave further north, touching Arkansas. Expand You're that guy! lol Upper level flow is backing more to the north along the coast through hr78. It's coming west. I'm that guy too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 On 12/4/2017 at 9:50 PM, Bob Chill said: You're that guy! lol Upper level flow is backing more to the west along the coast through hr78. It's coming west. I'm that guy too. Expand Popped a low off Charleston SC at 84... It's coming... At least 10 flakes. Maybe 11. Edit - also, a sharper trough, which helps, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Much better dig on the trough and placement is better would not be surprised to see the coastal closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Better look on the surface pressure anomalies leading into the coastal suggest this is coming west as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Don't think so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Seeing a bend in the isobars with some low pressure anomalies showing over Western N Car and VA. Hmmmm.... eta: could be induced by the westerly flow over the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 On 12/4/2017 at 9:55 PM, mitchnick said: Don't thonk so Expand Still an eastern deal but a lot closer than 12z. [weenie hat on] gfs is known to underestimate the western extent of precip [weenie hat off] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2017 Author Share Posted December 4, 2017 Safe to say GFS has no idea where to put the Sunday clipper s/w and doesn't have much idea about the Friday-Saturday s/w either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Argh, why do I even bother. ETA - Clipper looking slower, a little further south at 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2017 Author Share Posted December 4, 2017 Models also having trouble deciding which s/w to amplify. Euro and Ukie have this strung out, 2 low solution. 18z GFS puts all the energy in the 1st wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Swing and a miss on happy hour, Maybe a decent NW trend underway though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 On 12/4/2017 at 9:59 PM, eurojosh said: Argh, why do I even bother. Expand snow=drugs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2017 Author Share Posted December 4, 2017 GFS gives us all a dusting-1" with the clipper Saturday night into Sunday morning. Weird evolution, looks like a cold FROPA. Vort pass is better than 12z, but still not ideal. I'd be skeptical right now. I still want the 0z run back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 On 12/4/2017 at 10:00 PM, mitchnick said: snow=drugs Expand It's Monday...plenty of time...it trended NW from 12z...not awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 The time to focus on is 11-14 Dec...I am out of town at a conference...snow will fly...get back Thursday at 9pm...snow will stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 I like the trend NW on the 18z. Like I said before, time and time again we see these types of storms trend NW within 4 days of the event. Remember Tday 2014? March 2017 Storm? Jan 2017 Storm? All of these trended NW, even if slightly, a couple days before the event. If I remember correctly, on the Monday before the Jan 2017 storm, the models had backed off of a storm that would crush us, and trended SE up until Tuesday night, where the guidance ever so creeped the storm NW until we got 1.5" of snow. The center of the snow during the Monday runs were projected in SE North Carolina, which means that if this storm follows what that storm did, we would be in business. I don't know if it has to do with the cold front coming through and making the guidance bring the storm farther NW, but it's something to watch for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 On 12/4/2017 at 9:56 PM, Bob Chill said: Still an eastern deal but a lot closer than 12z. [weenie hat on] gfs is known to underestimate the western extent of precip [weenie hat off] Expand To me this looks like a very good improvement over 12z run. lp is closer to the coast and what I think is most important is that it stays much closer to the coast all the way up. one and a jalf more adjustments should do the trick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 On 12/4/2017 at 10:17 PM, Cobalt said: I like the trend NW on the 18z. Like I said before, time and time again we see these types of storms trend NW within 4 days of the event. Remember Tday 2014? March 2017 Storm? Jan 2017 Storm? All of these trended NW, even if slightly, a couple days before the event. If I remember correctly, on the Monday before the Jan 2017 storm, the models had backed off of a storm that would crush us, and trended SE up until Tuesday night, where the guidance ever so creeped the storm NW until we got 1.5" of snow. The center of the snow during the Monday runs were projected in SE North Carolina, which means that if this storm follows what that storm did, we would be in business. I don't know if it has to do with the cold front coming through and making the guidance bring the storm farther NW, but it's something to watch for sure Expand We did well in that storm down here in Calvert County last Jan. Ended up with close to 7” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 On 12/4/2017 at 10:22 PM, Wonderdog said: To me this looks like a very good improvement over 12z run. lp is closer to the coast and what I think is most important is that it stays much closer to the coast all the way up. one and a jalf more adjustments should do the trick. Expand Improvement for sure but only gets us back to slightly worse than yesterday runs. Trend or nearing final solution. See what 0z does I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2017 Author Share Posted December 4, 2017 Nice clipper vort pass out in D8-9 fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 I liked seeing the 18z have a couple good vort passes down the line too. Those types of deals are rarely prolific but they are good for cold high ratio snowfall. Today has been a good day overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 I feel like I'm the only one happy with all of these solutions. I see so many chances for flakes. Maybe not accumulating much but it's early December! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 On 12/4/2017 at 10:33 PM, supernovasky said: I feel like I'm the only one happy with all of these solutions. I see so many chances for flakes. Maybe not accumulating much but it's early December! Expand You're not. I'm right there with you. Sure, I'd like to be tracking a monster milller A but in reality probably 90% of our events are small and/or less organized types of deals. 12z euro and 18z gfs look fine to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 I mean there is some snow (even if ultra light) from 114h all the way to 9d so far in the run... I'm thrilled that there will be that many chances to look out the window and see a little white! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 On 12/4/2017 at 10:35 PM, Bob Chill said: You're not. I'm right there with you. Sure, I'd like to be tracking a monster milller A but in reality probably 90% of our events are small and/or less organized types of deals. 12z euro and 18z gfs look fine to me. Expand It's good but when the mean trough in the east is too east it hurts us. You said we need a broad trough that's more west... I see why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 But the cold keeps coming..it doesn't stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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