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BuffaloWeather

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Posted

Like I said awhile ago, it's a great pattern. :snowwindow:

Behind this system, more arctic air looks to arrive across the lower
Great Lakes. It continues to look reasonable that another round of
significant lake effect snow will ramp up by Sunday into early next
week. Beyond that, expect additional chances for relatively light
snow with clipper passages through the rest of next week, and more
importantly additional chances for heavy lake effect snow as each
fresh batch of cold air arrives behind the clippers.

 

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Phillifan22

Phillifan22

Posted
Posted

Warnings up for east of Ontario!

Lake Effect Snow Warning 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
101 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2017

NYZ007-008-060215-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0005.171206T1200Z-171208T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0008.171207T0000Z-171208T1500Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
101 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO
10 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Travel will be very
  difficult to impossible at times. Total snow accumulations of
  10 to 18 inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties. Greatest amounts across
  central and southeast Jefferson County and northern portions of
  Lewis county.

* WHEN...7 PM Wednesday to 10 AM Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
  visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Travel will be very
  difficult to impossible at times. Total snow accumulations of
  10 to 18 inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie
  counties. Greatest amounts will be across southern Erie county,
  western portions of Wyoming county, and northern portions of
  Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties.

* WHEN...7 PM Wednesday to 7 AM Friday.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Plan on slippery road
  conditions, including during the evening commute on Wednesday.
  Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected in the
  most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee counties. Mainly south of a
  Buffalo to Batavia line, with greatest amounts toward the
  southtowns of Buffalo.

* WHEN...4 PM Wednesday to 1 AM Thursday.
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Thinksnow18

Thinksnow18

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Posted
5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Travel will be very
  difficult to impossible at times. Total snow accumulations of
  10 to 18 inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie
  counties. Greatest amounts will be across southern Erie county,
  western portions of Wyoming county, and northern portions of
  Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties.

* WHEN...7 PM Wednesday to 7 AM Friday.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Plan on slippery road
  conditions, including during the evening commute on Wednesday.
  Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected in the
  most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee counties. Mainly south of a
  Buffalo to Batavia line, with greatest amounts toward the
  southtowns of Buffalo.

* WHEN...4 PM Wednesday to 1 AM Thursday.

Unbelivable bust on the forecast from just 2 days ago. The forecast right now is remarkably different from the 10:20 am update on the AFD. so now no band in the northtowns at all? Amounts kept dropping every 12 hours and not even a mention of the band being around friday when this morning WIVB had this going into the weekend. Seems like as the these models go through updates in software they perform worse. 

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WNash

WNash

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11 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Yep northtowns nada and the buffalo southtowns 3 to 6 inches...on to the next LES event, and eventually utter disgust as well!!!

Yeah, this looks like it's gonna continue a bad run of luck for most of the Buffalo metro. Hopefully this pattern will produce over the next 8-9 days, because if it doesn't, the window for LES closes quite a bit and we may be heading towards yet another well BN winter. If things don't turn around over the next few seasons, the updated 30 year average for BUF is going to be ugly.

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Thinksnow18

Thinksnow18

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Posted
7 minutes ago, WNash said:

Yeah, this looks like it's gonna continue a bad run of luck for most of the Buffalo metro. Hopefully this pattern will produce over the next 8-9 days, because if it doesn't, the window for LES closes quite a bit and we may be heading towards yet another well BN winter. If things don't turn around over the next few seasons, the updated 30 year average for BUF is going to be ugly.

Definitely depressing. Yes, there is alot of winter to come, but im tired of playing catch up in the snowfall department.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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15 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Unbelivable bust on the forecast from just 2 days ago. The forecast right now is remarkably different from the 10:20 am update on the AFD. so now no band in the northtowns at all? Amounts kept dropping every 12 hours and not even a mention of the band being around friday when this morning WIVB had this going into the weekend. Seems like as the these models go through updates in software they perform worse. 

You really need to move south of Buffalo. Williamsville is terrible spot for snow. 

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Thinksnow18

Thinksnow18

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6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Pretty strange that Watertown gets 18-24 which is hit by SW winds while Buffalo gets 4-6". They will also have better moisture than off of Erie. 

Which brings me to the temperature profiles...the colder more moist air doesnt seem to be pushing as far south imo...Williamsville isnt terrible and definitely has had its share of good LES, no question the southtowns perform better and more often. Just a shame we have to wait until early next week and HOPE something pans out.

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CNY-LES FREAK

CNY-LES FREAK

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Posted
Not sure what you mean but the pattern looks great for cold and lots of chances of LES. It's all coming to fruition. You can predict temperatures pretty easily 10 days before, precipitation on the other hand is tough to predict at any timeframe, especially mesoscale events like LES.

Just do me and yourself a favor, and don't end a post with " I told you so". I'm pretty sure everyone on this sub forum knew a pattern change was coming, so you telling us, or whoever you responded to, "and I told you so", wasn't needed is all.

Good luck, hope you get buried!

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Which brings me to the temperature profiles...the colder more moist air doesnt seem to be pushing as far south imo...Williamsville isnt terrible and definitely has had its share of good LES, no question the southtowns perform better and more often. Just a shame we have to wait until early next week and HOPE something pans out.

That's the beauty of LES, you never really know how it's going to pan out. Nov 2014 had totals of 2-3' and we ended up with 7'. I remember a storm a few years ago with no advs or warnings and got 16". 

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CNY-LES FREAK

CNY-LES FREAK

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Warnings up for east of Ontario!

Lake Effect Snow Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Buffalo NY101 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2017NYZ007-008-060215-/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0005.171206T1200Z-171208T1200Z//O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0008.171207T0000Z-171208T1500Z/Jefferson-Lewis-Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville101 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2017...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO10 AM EST FRIDAY...* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Travel will be very  difficult to impossible at times. Total snow accumulations of  10 to 18 inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows.* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties. Greatest amounts across  central and southeast Jefferson County and northern portions of  Lewis county.* WHEN...7 PM Wednesday to 10 AM Friday.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in  visibility at times.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, beprepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

Yeah too bad the Lion share will be where no one lives, lol, in the backwood sticks of the Tug. What a waste of good snowfall, lol, but great for opening day of sleding!

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southbuffalowx

southbuffalowx

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For what's it's worth, the Canadian model is still fairly bullish on snowfall for the metro. The mesoscale shows decent totals in the near southtowns through Thursday morning, and the actual model shows continued lake effect out to 10 days in the area. It will probably come in several 3-6 inch events, as opposed to any big storm, which isn't as exciting, but it's better than nothing!

 

RDPS.gif

GDPS.gif

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Syrmax

Syrmax

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28 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

They incrrased again, KBUF is something else.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

Mainly W and SW flow LES with clippers passing thru next 10 days?  Probably some passing light accums for most, though Euro and GFS have a coastal out at 192h (Congrats SNE lol).  Maybe some LES on backside. GFS has +PNA pattern relaxing by end of week 2...just in time for the traditional XMas to New Years / early Jan spell of mild & boring wx?  ;)

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

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Gotta remember KBUF always goes bonkers on their maps far out only to cut them down again and again as the event gets closer. It’s been a while since I looked at an accumulation map so I was fully on the hype train when the map came out with me close to the 24-30” zone, and forgot how many times last year I was in a much higher amount then what ended up verifying . Glad the first event is outta the way so now I can remember when KBUFs maps come out I gotta cut the numbers in half of not more. Went from 2-3’ down to 6-8” lol. 

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Thinksnow18

Thinksnow18

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6 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Mainly W and SW flow LES with clippers passing thru next 10 days?  Probably some passing light accums for most, though Euro and GFS have a coastal out at 192h (Congrats SNE lol).  Maybe some LES on backside. GFS has +PNA pattern relaxing by end of week 2...just in time for the traditional XMas to New Years / early Jan spell of mild & boring wx?  ;)

I wasn't certain with the forecasted upcoming pattern that i could become concerned but I am until I see a definite signal on any model showing a good outcome for snow chances.

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
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2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I wasn't certain with the forecasted upcoming pattern that i could become concerned but I am until I see a definite signal on any model showing a good outcome for snow chances.

I am 100% with you. It seems this season every time we get the cold air there is no synoptic moisture to aid he lake effect so we end up with some lake effect but nothing special and looking forward I don’t see anything that looks to be different even the Sun to Tue timeframe seems to have gone away with winds frequently changing direction and nothing impressive at all synoptically. Looks like we’re quickly going to fall behind in the snowfall department as we move through mid December and what once looked promising now lookings only slightly better than bleak, sure we’re not above average anymore but with little snowfall we might as well be 60 and sunny. Oh and forgot to mention all this cold and dry will really do in the lake quickly too so maybe once the pattern reloads after he new year and we actually get a storm with a SW flow and moisture the lake will have already begun it’s freezing process. Hell at this point maybe I should have stayed in Rhode Island, the new snow capital of the northeastern United States. 

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CNY-LES FREAK

CNY-LES FREAK

Posted
Posted
Mainly W and SW flow LES with clippers passing thru next 10 days?  Probably some passing light accums for most, though Euro and GFS have a coastal out at 192h (Congrats SNE lol).  Maybe some LES on backside. GFS has +PNA pattern relaxing by end of week 2...just in time for the traditional XMas to New Years / early Jan spell of mild & boring wx? 

Nah, I think we end the next 15 day period with at least a foot or more, if synoptically we can get something going, perhaps more with temps averaging >-5 BN. The pattern is ripe and if there's cold in and around the lakes it's gonna snow, point blank, but we need a moisture source and with the GOM basically out of the picture, it's tough. In oder to tap the Atlantic, we need something to spin up, way South, and with clippers, not usually the case. I'm still quite optimistic but as I always say, we'll see. I will sayvthis with certainty, a White Christmas seems quite probable. If Not, NYC will have one, lol, so instead of the family coming up here for the holidays, I'll head thataway, lol!

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, ayuud11 said:

If we can get something going then you could throw those snowfall totals out of the window since they are not expecting any snow accumulations till later on Wednesday afternoon..

I wouldn’t count on it, not one model is showing anything impressive what so ever. We’ll have to just take what we can get I guess. 

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Thinksnow18

Thinksnow18

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6 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

I wouldn’t count on it, not one model is showing anything impressive what so ever. We’ll have to just take what we can get I guess. 

This LES reaffirmed what I already knew and thats LES will do what LES wants...and most of the time I don't like what it's thinking!

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