Upstate/Eastern New York

[Buffalo Bumble]

Few parting thoughts on the storm that just rolled through…

·       The warm advection snowfall was fairly impressive.  A solid 4-7” for most of W/CNY. 

·       The backside snowfall was disappointing from my perspective.  With the track south of I-90 and amount of cold air wrapping in, I was hoping to see some major lake enhancement for several hours from west to east as the storm passed. This never really materialized.  From my non met eyes, maybe this was due to multiple areas of low pressure swirling around, and never really consolidating in upstate NY….?

·       Follow-up lake effect was solid, but not prolific.  Tug was the big winner, while it looked like Roc to Fulton at one point would possibly be in the 18-24” range. 

I was very interested before the event started if we would see any surprises with this storm, given how wound up it was over the upper Midwest and amount of cold air diving in.  No big surprises in my mind with this one…again, maybe due to the parade of shortwaves swirling around preventing one really wound up system.  But all in all a very solid winter event in a background great pattern. 

[lakeeffectkid383]

15 minutes ago, ayuud11 said:

Radar looks good.another overachiever incoming?

And of course as soon as it hits WS/South Buffalo it shrivels up and dies right out. Rich has 1/2 moderate to heavy snow and I have light flurries and the returns die as soon as they move close. This transition zone is getting really old. And I understand while I’ve had 2 feet in the last week it’s still frustrating when others a few miles away have gotten double of that...

[Thinksnow18]

Friday night saturday an could be a nice surprise 

[Buffalo Bumble]

7 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

And of course as soon as it hits WS/South Buffalo it shrivels up and dies right out. Rich has 1/2 moderate to heavy snow and I have light flurries and the returns die as soon as they move close. This transition zone is getting really old. And I understand while I’ve had 2 feet 9 inches in the last week it’s still frustrating when others a few less than 20 miles away have gotten double quadruple that...

Fixed to fit my life...But I'm resigned that while I live in the Williamsville area I'll be on the sidelines for most lake effect events (looking to move early next year, and I've made it clear to my wife that anything north of West Seneca is pretty much off limits...just b/c taxes are better in Southern Erie County, wink wink...).  

[BuffaloWeather]

Few pics of the gym I go to in Hamburg. 

[BuffaloWeather]

4 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Fixed to fit my life...But I'm resigned that while I live in the Williamsville area I'll be on the sidelines for most lake effect events (looking to move early next year, and I've made it clear to my wife that anything north of West Seneca is pretty much off limits...just b/c taxes are better in Southern Erie County, wink wink...).  

Don't move to village of OP or Hamburg. Taxes are out of control. Eden/Boston are great spots but the single lane of the 391 and 62 would literally cause me to go insane.

My wife is actually from the hills southeast of Eden and works from home. So she literally is up to move anywhere, but I hate long commutes everyday. So I choose to live here instead of Boston/Colden area. 

[lakeeffectkid383]

1 minute ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Fixed to fit my life...But I'm resigned that while I live in the Williamsville area I'll be on the sidelines for most lake effect events (looking to move early next year, and I've made it clear to my wife that anything north of West Seneca is pretty much off limits...just b/c taxes are better in Southern Erie County, wink wink...).  

Don’t move to West Seneca unless you want to be in the transition zone lol. You can hit it big on some events but for most your getting fringed by a couple miles which is more painful than being 15-20 miles away in my opinion. I enjoy the convienence of everything in and right around West Seneca but my next house will be no further north than Orchard Park or Hamburg. I would rather cash in on 2-3 20” events a year then a 50” storm every 5-10 years. 

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said:

Don’t move to West Seneca unless you want to be in the transition zone lol. You can hit it big on some events but for most your getting fringed by a couple miles which is more painful than being 15-20 miles away in my opinion. I enjoy the convienence of everything in and right around West Seneca but my next house will be no further north than Orchard Park or Hamburg. I would rather cash in on 2-3 20” events a year then a 50” storm every 5-10 years. 

This year is rare, West Seneca jackpots a lot. The Airport down to Eden is the only cooridor that can get insane events like 2001 and 2014 though. That's why I would never move further south then Boston Hills, I love those huge events even though they are so rare. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Well that didn't last long, just light snow now. 

[ayuud11]

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

4 minutes ago, ayuud11 said:

Been neat watching that flare up and travel the lake shore.  Looks like a firecracker fuse burning down.  Not sure if it's going to push onshore or just go float out in the lake.  

[tim123]

It will come ashore in am. Actually arw hi res shows Rochester east getting 4 to 8 inches

[BuffaloWeather]

2 minutes ago, tim123 said:

It will come ashore in am. Actually arw hi res shows Rochester east getting 4 to 8 inches

?

[tim123]

[BuffaloWeather]

I guess .1 gives 4-8" now.  I mean if its pure fluff maybe. But that will just blow away. 

[tim123]

.1 gave Rochester 3 inches today. If you look at map and do same equation you actually see monroe Wayne getting 6 to 12. 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I guess .1 gives 4-8" now.  I mean if its pure fluff maybe. But that will just blow away. 

I dunno what everyone else is seeing but what's falling now is a fine grainy snow won't add up to much no fluff to this stuff...

[tim123]

I bet buffalo gets2 3 inches tonight just from system. Monroe and Wayne are goin to get enhancement later tonite from ne n and nw wind tomorrow. Not saying 6 to 12 but would not be shocked if we go under a advisory

[lakeeffectkid383]

33 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

This year is rare, West Seneca jackpots a lot. The Airport down to Eden is the only cooridor that can get insane events like 2001 and 2014 though. That's why I would never move further south then Boston Hills, I love those huge events even though they are so rare. 

 I agree that once your south of the Boston Hills that you'll never see a really huge event because you just don't have the fetch to get the same insane rates going that you can on a WSW to SW flow however I'd take an average of 250" a year like Perrysburg where every single event they get a foot somehow no matter what even though the never seem to get insane totals like you can get in the southtowns on a big event. I think somewhere in the higher elevations of southern OP or Boston would be a decent spot to be because you can kind of get the best of both world where you get some orographic enhancement where your always getting more snow then even just a few miles away at a lower elevation and yet you can still get some pretty epic totals in WSW events... not to mention taxes in Boston are dirt cheap. My taxes are going up a couple hundred more bucks next year here in West Seneca due to a tax increase that just got approved a couple of weeks ago, gonna be over $4500 a year now, I might as well move to Hamburg or OP village. 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

38 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Don’t move to West Seneca unless you want to be in the transition zone lol. You can hit it big on some events but for most your getting fringed by a couple miles which is more painful than being 15-20 miles away in my opinion. I enjoy the convienence of everything in and right around West Seneca but my next house will be no further north than Orchard Park or Hamburg. I would rather cash in on 2-3 20” events a year then a 50” storm every 5-10 years. 

The south side of WS on the OP boarder does well.  I grew up near Reserve and Union and we always caught the bands.  I remember many times having a foot plus and going 2 miles north to Southgate Plaza and they had 2-3 inches. 

[wolfie09]

Huge fluffy flakes here, as the lake is still firing, coming down extremely light and slow lol

[lakeeffectkid383]

No way Buffalo gets 3" from this and next to no chance they get 2", as SBS said the snow is super grainy and "sugary" like and isn't going to add up to much at all but it is very sparkly and pretty to look at on top of 14-15" of thick base. I bet KBUF lands up less than 1.0" from this event. 

[tim123]

Just now, wolfie09 said:

Huge fluffy flakes here, as the lake is still firing, coming down extremely light and slow lol

Thats what i am talking about. These north ne events in roc you get huge flakes and very efficient accumilation

[lakeeffectkid383]

3 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

The south side of WS on the OP boarder does well.  I grew up near Reserve and Union and we always caught the bands.  I remember many times having a foot plus and going 2 miles north to Southgate Plaza and they had 2-3 inches. 

I noticed this a lot too. I go to Lowes at Southwestern and OP rd almost every day and as I'm going up OP rd I notice during almost every event you can literally see the snow banks increase with almost every block it seems like. It does seem like that area is always the cut off and that area always seems to be in the right side of the transition zone and me the wrong side just a couple miles north off of Center Rd. I wonder if not only that they are a couple miles south but the fact that there is a little bit of elevation difference (albeit maybe only about 150ft or so) between here and the area around Southwestern and Reserve that enhances the snowfall for that area. I bet southern West Seneca averages at least 10-15" more than the north side of West Seneca. 

[tim123]

I work in macedon ny 4 miles south of my house and alot of time with lake events it' a inch per mile as you head north. Just opposite of you lol

[Syrmax]

53 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Few parting thoughts on the storm that just rolled through…

·       The warm advection snowfall was fairly impressive.  A solid 4-7” for most of W/CNY. 

·       The backside snowfall was disappointing from my perspective.  With the track south of I-90 and amount of cold air wrapping in, I was hoping to see some major lake enhancement for several hours from west to east as the storm passed. This never really materialized.  From my non met eyes, maybe this was due to multiple areas of low pressure swirling around, and never really consolidating in upstate NY….?

·       Follow-up lake effect was solid, but not prolific.  Tug was the big winner, while it looked like Roc to Fulton at one point would possibly be in the 18-24” range. 

I was very interested before the event started if we would see any surprises with this storm, given how wound up it was over the upper Midwest and amount of cold air diving in.  No big surprises in my mind with this one…again, maybe due to the parade of shortwaves swirling around preventing one really wound up system.  But all in all a very solid winter event in a background great pattern. 

Good write up. Storm recaps or debriefs are a great way to learn by processing what just happened versus progs.  To zero in a bit in CNY - I'll leave WNY to those following Buffalo closer...I think Fulton did pretty good.  I forget what Wolfie has reported but I think it was a bit more than me, and I'm about halfway between him and KSYR by line of sight.  Syr no. Burbs (me) had 5" front end and 8-9" overnight, with 3-4" today.  I netted 17", just flurries now.

* The KBGM forecast was pretty much spot on for total snowfall for Central and northern areas of their CWA.  Warning verified here anyway.

CNY Winners: Onondaga & Oswego County, the Tug. (Cuz the Tug is like Tom Brady and always frigging wins).

CNY Losers:   Judging from CocoRaHS data today...southern end of Warning area in CNY (Cortland, Madison, Chenango counties and Ithaca of course) came up short.  Also, Southern tier / KBGM area were shafted, although they were never in a Warning. ROC and south shore area is more WNY than CNY but they seemed to be short of expectations also?  

I suspect your premise of multiple lp centers could be why the wraparound / lake enhanced phase of the Clipper underperformed. Various NWP showed a dryslot and/or precip lull especially in Finger lakes to So. Tier area...but I think they all showed that being shorter lived than it turned out.  I also didn't see (or was too stupid to see) that portion of the system becoming a raging Tug Hill single band on any model as winds were more West than the progged NW.  Those two developments probably cost areas like ROC and south of SYR.

[DeltaT13]

48 minutes ago, ayuud11 said:

I’d be willing to bet there are waterspouts (snowspouts?) under stationary bands like that. Perfect conditions for it.  Reed Timmer should take a boat out into one of those bands. 

[Buffalo Bumble]

1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said:

Don’t move to West Seneca unless you want to be in the transition zone lol. You can hit it big on some events but for most your getting fringed by a couple miles which is more painful than being 15-20 miles away in my opinion. I enjoy the convienence of everything in and right around West Seneca but my next house will be no further north than Orchard Park or Hamburg. I would rather cash in on 2-3 20” events a year then a 50” storm every 5-10 years. 

We work in Lancaster and Amherst so don't want to go too far south and have a long commute.  Another interesting option I've been thinking about is actually moving as much east as south.  The way the Lake Erie bands orient themselves, the area from Alden to around Marilla can do quite well.  Much easier commute from that way too. 

[Buffalo Bumble]

7 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Good write up. Storm recaps or debriefs are a great way to learn by processing what just happened versus progs.  To zero in a bit in CNY - I'll leave WNY to those following Buffalo closer...I think Fulton did pretty good.  I forget what Wolfie has reported but I think it was a bit more than me, and I'm about halfway between him and KSYR by line of sight.  Syr no. Burbs (me) had 5" front end and 8-9" overnight, with 3-4" today.  I netted 17", just flurries now.

* The KBGM forecast was pretty much spot on for total snowfall for Central and northern areas of their CWA.  Warning verified here anyway.

CNY Winners: Onondaga & Oswego County, the Tug. (Cuz the Tug is like Tom Brady and always frigging wins).

CNY Losers:   Judging from CocoRaHS data today...southern end of Warning area in CNY (Cortland, Madison, Chenango counties and Ithaca of course) came up short.  Also, Southern tier / KBGM area were shafted, although they were never in a Warning. ROC and south shore area is more WNY than CNY but they seemed to be short of expectations also?  

I suspect your premise of multiple lp centers could be why the wraparound / lake enhanced phase of the Clipper underperformed. Various NWP showed a dryslot and/or precip lull especially in Finger lakes to So. Tier area...but I think they all showed that being shorter lived than it turned out.  I also didn't see (or was too stupid to see) that portion of the system becoming a raging Tug Hill single band on any model as winds were more West than the progged NW.  Those two developments probably cost areas like ROC and south of SYR.

Interesting recap.  Impressive you ended up with 17" even though things didn't exactly come together perfectly.  Just goes to show how much snow potential there is southeast of Lake Ontario. 

 

[vortmax]

13 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I’d be willing to bet there are waterspouts (snowspouts?) under stationary bands like that. Perfect conditions for it.  Reed Timmer should take a boat out into one of those bands. 

This band stretches across the entire lake!