SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 BTV just blew up the metro and north towns Friday afternoon into Saturday morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 I don't recall every run of every model in the past two days but I don't believe any showed Lake Ontario being a Tug Hill event after the Clipper but that's what has happened. Winds wrong and moisture drastically over predicted. It's dry as a bone out there and getting drier as arctic airmass seeps south. Equilibrium levels will crash as atmosphere cools and dries out so that by the time wind does shift, there's little moisture remaining. At most, we see a few hours of moderate snow as the Tug Hill band sinks south, falls off the lake and turns into a weak multiband spray Wednesday. Fairly spectacular forecast bust shaping up and filed away for future reference. The lower resistance over the lakes creates a persistent convergence effect that confounds modeling. Which is why you can junk most model output downwind of Lake Ontario, or shift it north 20-30 miles and keep it there much longer than any model forecasts most of the time. George, LEK used to preach that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: I don't recall every run of every model in the past two days but I don't believe any showed Lake Ontario being a Tug Hill event after the Clipper but that's what has happened. Winds wrong and moisture drastically over predicted. It's dry as a bone out there and getting drier as arctic airmass seeps south. Equilibrium levels will crash as atmosphere cools and dries out so that by the time wind does shift, there's little moisture remaining. At most, we see a few hours of moderate snow as the Tug Hill band sinks south, falls off the lake and turns into a weak multiband spray Wednesday. Fairly spectacular forecast bust shaping up and filed away for future reference. The lower resistance over the lakes creates a persistent convergence effect that confounds modeling. Which is why you can junk most model output downwind of Lake Ontario, or shift it north 20-30 miles and keep it there much longer than any model forecasts most of the time. George, LEK used to preach that. Where the F is the king? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Winds now south on the lake shore. Convergence starting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Yup front coming into Lake. That band should take off and head south any time now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Where the F is the king? Dunno. Haven't been in touch with him in a couple years. Hope he is well and wanders back here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Gfs and Canadian show a monster lake event day 8 to 10 for south shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Just now, tim123 said: Gfs and Canadian show a monster lake event day 8 to 10 for south shore GIGO. Those models are horrific with meso scale forecasts a day out, much less a week. Might as well be a decade out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 I know but get idea of pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Tim, have you had ANY LES in Walworth yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Not really just flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Snow is finally here, coming down moderately, we’ll see how tonight goes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Western end of lake popping off now. Headeded southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 For some reason I'm no longer able to upload content. Even though I'm below size limits and have only 70% in my account usage. Ugh. anyway, wanted to post pic of moderate snow. Starting to come down here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Over an inch already, band is taking its time, may pick up a few quick inches.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Over an inch already, band is taking its time, may pick up a few quick inches.. Wolfie, where are you located? Ive just started getting heavy stuff in Irondequoit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Fulton , SW Oswego Co Under this band right now, also keeping an eye on the multi bands rotating in from the north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 22 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Fulton , SW Oswego Co Under this band right now, also keeping an eye on the multi bands rotating in from the north.. Nice. You guys get some nutty totals. Ive just entered a VERY hvy band myself. Not sure how long it lasts. Probably 1"/ hr rate right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Wish I could post. Lol. Can't figure this out. It's like I've been put on a lock down. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Meoscale low developing north north West of monroe county north side of lake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, tim123 said: Meoscale low developing north north West of monroe county north side of lake Tim, I'm under heavy stuff now. You? I gotta say. You always see this stuff better than anyone. Folks get pissed and sign off. But you are so steadfast. Still, ive only seen one inch. And this thing could shut off too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Well, just checked outside. Maybe more like 3" so far. 2" in last hr. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Band looks like crap on radar but it' pounding.just light snow in walworth so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Moderate snow in Irondequoit. It pounded for a bit. But now back to .5"/hr rates. Its a tough read. NWS still bullish. IDK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Pouring snow out, approaching 4 new inches.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 I wouldnt say this is bull****. Not sure why it let me post this pic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Band has de-attached, So May be the end soon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Slamming out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Gotta be 2 3 inches a hour in Greece into city. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 On and off in Irondequoit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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