CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 I always have a hard time believing simulated radar output for some reason. I'm not saying their gonna be wrong, but pinpointing where a LES band is gonna be 6 hrs from now seems extremely difficult for even the best of the meso models, IMO,. But as usual, we'll see. A slam dunk just turned into an impossible 3 pointer with virtually no time left on the clock, horrific!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Haha nah I’m used to it lol The event is just getting started,we’ll see what happens..I’m actually planning to buy a house in volney about 6 miles north of the city, so hopefully that helps some..haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 There is a wind shift with the front...looks NNW...Looks almost NNE for a time which would destroy KROC and points Westt, the exact opposite of what KBUF has out, lol, now that would be the biggest *ick punch ever, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 On to the next one!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 I'm done ranting, lol!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Let’s see how good the hrrr is , 4th run in a a row it gets Kroc, could be a fun night for some.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Nice write up from the BUF AFD: East of Lake Ontario, westerly flow should allow for a potential short-lived by strong lake band late this afternoon/early evening with a focus on Oswego County. Some shore banding is possible too, but this could be fairly significant in terms of blowing snow and snow rates exceeding 2"/hr in places. Later tonight, an arctic boundary should allow this band to sink south. 12Z models and hourly HRRR runs continue to show this boundary moving across the Lake Ontario shoreline around/after midnight with a mesolow on the west side. Have yet to see it show up on observations, but it`s worth watching the Georgian Bay for development later this afternoon. Once this moves through, expect multibands on an NW flow primarily affecting Wayne east through Oswego County into Wed AM. A connection to the Georgian Bay may continue new band formation across the shoreline Wed - first over Niagara County, then east to Wayne County be the end of the day. Like Erie, resulting (additional) snow accumulations through Wednesday will vary substantially from location to location due to transitory banding, but here are a few areas of interest: * Shorelines west of Rochester: 1-5 inches * Rochester Area..............: 4-10 - highest E, less W. * Wayne to Oswego.............: Possibly a foot overnight. * Tug Hill Plateau............: 6-12 highest south. * Watertown...................: Highly variable, but in general 3-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2017 Author Share Posted December 12, 2017 56 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Haha nah I’m used to it lol The event is just getting started,we’ll see what happens..I’m actually planning to buy a house in volney about 6 miles north of the city, so hopefully that helps some..haha You should just move to Redfield if you're moving somewhere for snow. Would love to have a poster there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 The 18Z NAM shows the Wed night clipper further north as well...may get another 1-2 from that up to the south shore - with potential light LE on a NW flow once it passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2017 Author Share Posted December 12, 2017 10 minutes ago, vortmax said: The 18Z NAM shows the Wed night clipper further north as well...may get another 1-2 from that up to the south shore - with potential light LE on a NW flow once it passes. Yeah much farther north in latest run. Also brings a period of LES for Metro Buffalo Fri into Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2017 Author Share Posted December 12, 2017 Don't think I've ever seen Buf NWS do this. Pretty awesome. Resulting (additional) snow accumulations through Wednesday will vary substantially from location to location due to transitory banding, but here are a few areas of interest: * Inland Chautauqua County: Highest amounts - over a foot. * Buffalo area Southtowns: around or below the 6inch range. * Other higher terrain...: 4-8 inches. * Niagara Frontier.......: 1-4 inches. * Allegany...............: T-4 inches. * Shorelines west of Rochester: 1-5 inches * Rochester Area..............: 4-10 - highest E, less W. * Wayne to Oswego.............: Possibly a foot overnight. * Tug Hill Plateau............: 6-12 highest south. * Watertown...................: Highly variable, but in general 3-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 N Oswego Cty getting hammered... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2017 Author Share Posted December 12, 2017 Winds will turn in the next few hours. Should see south shore blossom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Yeah, I'm a bit .ore optimistic as I peeked upstream and there must be a disturbance within the flow, cause it looks to realign out of the WNW out on the West end of the Lake so we'll see!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 The band on Georgian bay has abruptly shifted nearly due south in the last hour. That’s likely the shift that could salvage the south shore. Still going to be tough with the 850 low much further east than earlier thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Winds will turn in the next few hours. Should see south shore blossom. Yeah, I agree as my rant was a bit premature. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2017 Author Share Posted December 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Yeah, I agree as my rant was a bit premature. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk It's moving slowly. Might not be until around midnight. I think we see some crazy rates with it though. Mainly from Orleans to Oswego and towards Cuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 It's moving slowly. Might not be until around midnight. I think we see some crazy rates with it though. Mainly from Orleans to Oswego and towards Cuse. Yeah, KBUF said around midnight winds should start to veer more towards the NW so we wait over here on the ESE end of the Lake!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2017 Author Share Posted December 12, 2017 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: Yeah, KBUF said around midnight winds should start to veer more towards the NW so we wait over here on the ESE end of the Lake! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk You can see the subtle swirl north of Toronto as winds turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: Winds literally SW across west end of Ontario. Wow. Didn't see that coming. There is a meoscale low east of gb. Dropping south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Get out of work at 7 then may chase up to lake shore. I think monroe Wayne are goin to get hit hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2017 Author Share Posted December 12, 2017 Springville getting slammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 That wind shift now is quite evident now on radar and it's moving at a pretty good clip across the Lake and about to smack the South Shore somewhere between Monroe and Oswego counties, so IMO, it shouldn't take much more than a couple of hours to reach the ESE end of the Lake. I think it'll definitely be here before midnight. Winds are quite strong right off the deck so I think the winds could mix down and gust upwards of 35-40 at times with a few of the squall that move through. Definitely windy put there. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Even Lake Simcoe is firing up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 I have seen this before. Just shows you the parameters are great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 11 minutes ago, tim123 said: I have seen this before. Just shows you the parameters are great I love that you're still on board. I guess it's a waiting game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Patience. I think bulk of accums will come in a 8 hour time. From 11 pm to 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Radarscope seems to run in a clear air/high sensitivity mode most of the time and you can clearly see the shift just hitting the south shore. There is also some signs of new convection forming upstream on a NW trajectory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 hour ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: That wind shift now is quite evident now on radar and it's moving at a pretty good clip across the Lake and about to smack the South Shore somewhere between Monroe and Oswego counties, so IMO, it shouldn't take much more than a couple of hours to reach the ESE end of the Lake. I think it'll definitely be here before midnight. Winds are quite strong right off the deck so I think the winds could mix down and gust upwards of 35-40 at times with a few of the squall that move through. Definitely windy put there. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Wind shift, meso lp's...it's all crap. C'mon guy!! WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 It’s ridiculous that metro buff/West Seneca are getting screwed again. That’s just not right. Also, the little lake simcoe band that buffalo weather pointed out is now seeding a band on Ontario quite nicely. It’s the rare and short lived lake simcoe connection! We’ll take anything we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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