southbuffalowx Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Looks like we'll be lucky to pick up another inch in Buffalo. WNW wind doesn't treat the city too well, no matter how moist the flow. Unfortunately things aren't looking too good next week, so hopefully we get at least one for decent shot at snow before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 snow reports (mostly from synoptic snow) from 10PM Dec 11th to the moment (mid-day Dec 12th) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, southbuffalowx said: Looks like we'll be lucky to pick up another inch in Buffalo. WNW wind doesn't treat the city too well, no matter how moist the flow. Unfortunately things aren't looking too good next week, so hopefully we get at least one for decent shot at snow before Christmas. The PNA looks to go back positive after a few days of negative. The EPO looks to go strongly negative again as well. AO is close to neutral with a positive NAO. At least the Pacific doesn't appear to dominate the flow heading into Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2017 Author Share Posted December 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, vortmax said: The PNA looks to go back positive after a few days of negative. The EPO looks to go strongly negative again as well. AO is close to neutral with a positive NAO. At least the Pacific doesn't appear to dominate the flow heading into Christmas. Yeah Positive PNA and negative EPO look good. But positive AO and NAO means there will be a battle ground of sorts somewhere in the Eastern USA/Great Lakes. It's a great look for big synoptic storms somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah Positive PNA and negative EPO look good. But positive AO and NAO means there will be a battle ground of sorts somewhere in the Eastern USA/Great Lakes. It's a great look for big synoptic storms somewhere. Agreed. +AO and +NAO isn't always bad if the other indices are favorable and there's sufficient cold air/snow cover in our hemi. The GFS shows a frontal boundary from SW to NE sliced through the US with many waves training along. If we fall on the northern side, then it could mean lots of snow (or ice). This happened over a 5-7 day period sometime in the '96-'98 time frame bringing 1-2 feet of snow to ROC. Can be a great setup! The MJO is progged to move into 7 & 8 as well over the next week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2017 Author Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 minute ago, vortmax said: Agreed. +AO and +NAO isn't always bad if the other indices are favorable and there's sufficient cold air/snow cover in our hemi. The GFS shows a frontal boundary from SW to NE sliced through the US with many waves training along. If we fall on the northern side, then it could mean lots of snow. This happened over a 5-7 day period sometime in the '96-'98 time frame bringing 1-2 feet of snow to ROC. Can be a great setup! Can also lead to some big time ice events. I don't even remember the last ice event we got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Can also lead to some big time ice events. I don't even remember the last ice event we got. Exactly, depending how far north of the boundary you sit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Bright sunshine at UB North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Can also lead to some big time ice events. I don't even remember the last ice event we got. Yeah, the 12z GFS showed what would amount to a nasty ice storm across WNY during and just after Christmas. Obviously not going to happen, but it does look like the pattern should get more interesting as we approach Christmas. I just hope we end up on the right side of the cold air to get snow, because another green Christmas would be quite the let down, especially given how promising the pattern looked at the beginning of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah Positive PNA and negative EPO look good. But positive AO and NAO means there will be a battle ground of sorts somewhere in the Eastern USA/Great Lakes. It's a great look for big synoptic storms somewhere. Cohen just mentioned the same thing with our CWA's all on the snowy side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Updated warning 8 to 12 additional snow for rochester and points east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Looks like Fulton is gonna be the hot spot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 20 minutes ago, tim123 said: Updated warning 8 to 12 additional snow for rochester and points east What was it previously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 This is just for lake snow on top of storm snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Not so sure yet, flow looks to westerly at the moment , main part of this band will go north..We have 2 camps developing, some that hammer c/n Oswego co and others southern Oswego co.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Do things still look good for Orleans/Monroe? I was going to drive up to Lockport and then drive east on Ridge Road to go see some actual snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Think webster penfield ontario and walworth get a foot tonight into tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 24 minutes ago, WNash said: Do things still look good for Orleans/Monroe? I was going to drive up to Lockport and then drive east on Ridge Road to go see some actual snow. 1241 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Travel will be very difficult at times. Additional snow accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are expected. * WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties. Greatest accumulations from far eastern Monroe County eastward to Oswego County. * WHEN...Until 7 PM Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 minute ago, vortmax said: 1241 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Travel will be very difficult at times. Additional snow accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are expected. * WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties. Greatest accumulations from far eastern Monroe County eastward to Oswego County. * WHEN...Until 7 PM Wednesday. I think it would make more sense to drive towards Perrysburg instead of eastern Monroe County. Just as far and higher forecasted accums. I was trying to avoid all the hills/curves in Chautauqua Cty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Look at that swirl over roc. There will be some 2 to 4 in rates as that goes through. Possibly thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Nice tidbit talking about the possible upcoming pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 I definitely don't like the looks of this developing LE as I think Spectrum may have been on to something wirh their paltry totals and I'm thinking the same. As Delta alluded to earlier, the main flow is more westerly and looks to hammer Central Oswego County and Not So Oswego County and that's a bit disheartening. What was supposed to be a NW-WNW flow event has turned into a Westerly flow event, lol. So I guess the 5.3" that fell last night gets to be out grand total for a event that was supposed to drop 12-18". Oh well, on to the next one.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 10 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Nice tidbit talking about the possible upcoming pattern. GFS extended verbatim. Anyone know what the EC extended shows (not that it really matters this far out)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 What time is that AF due to arrive? I thought during the drive home from work but now I don't know.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 So I guess, according to KBUF, we now have to wait for the AF to arrive for the band up in C Oswego County to drop a bit further South to affect us. I'm not tracking this DUD, as that's what this event is gonna turn out to be! What a joke!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Trying stay optimistic here lol Hrrr has dual bands..A lot can still go right or wrong lol Not to mention models will have a tough time overnight under a NW regime, should be some good ratios at the very least.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 That must be extremely painful being able to almost touch that band about 4 miles to your North Wolfie!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Winds literally SW across west end of Ontario. Wow. Didn't see that coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 22 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I definitely don't like the looks of this developing LE as I think Spectrum may have been on to something wirh their paltry totals and I'm thinking the same. As Delta alluded to earlier, the main flow is more westerly and looks to hammer Central Oswego County and Not So Oswego County and that's a bit disheartening. What was supposed to be a NW-WNW flow event has turned into a Westerly flow event, lol. So I guess the 5.3" that fell last night gets to be out grand total for a event that was supposed to drop 12-18". Oh well, on to the next one. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk There is a wind shift with the front...looks NNW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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