vortmax Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 13 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: It's really blue skies overhead in KRoc? Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Was, now clouded over with flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Meso over Orleans. Someone's getting hit. Lake effect will start soon Roc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Spectrum News Channel has 2 to 4 in the city of Syracuse, lol?? Unless I'm seeing something completely different they might bust on the low side with those totalsSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 I made a huge mistake when I made that observation, I was driving to the city of Syracuse which is spritzing a flurry here and there but as I drive north now on 81 towards home, it's starting to pick up in Oswego County again not overly heavy or anything like that steady light snow as aposed to flurries.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 10 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Spectrum News Channel has 2 to 4 in the city of Syracuse, lol?? Unless I'm seeing something completely different they might bust on the low side with those totals Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Is that for the lake effect later or for the entire event? Looking at the CoCoRaHS observations from this morning it appears that the city only got about 2 inches overnight. Definitely a drop off as you head south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2017 Author Share Posted December 12, 2017 Really nice discussion from KBUF for todays event. Quote A deepening surface low continues to move northeast toward Northern New York as an upper level trough plows into the OH valley. This fairly anomalous feature will continue to force cyclogenesis into the afternoon as the surface low moves NE. The result overhead is continued light snow in a deformation zone W of the surface low. While upper level moisture is starting to move to the east, there is still a jet max apparent via satellite imagery over central PA that may stall the back edge of the eastward moving synoptic snow into the early afternoon. This should pad most areas with an additional inch or two of snow compared to earlier forecasts. Meanwhile, cold air is starting to filter into the region from the NW. There is already a subtle tea-kettle like feature over far Western Lake Ontario that may add to the snow amounts along the shoreline West of Rochester into the early afternoon hours. Clearly defined lake effect bands are further upstream over the upper Great Lakes, with one band over far Western Lake Erie, all under a NW flow. Expect to see a transition from synoptic snow to lake effect snow from west to east this afternoon. Tonight the main surface low will track further eastward into Maine...while circulating a trailing secondary cold front across the region this evening. The approach and passage of the secondary front will encourage the redevelopment of widespread light to moderate snow across the region from northwest to southeast. At the same time...the boost in moisture and lift provided by the secondary front will also help to intensify the areas of lake effect/lake enhanced snow...which will also shift southward to areas southeast of the lakes as the low level flow veers more northwesterly following the passage of the boundary. Some of the high resolution guidance shows a hint of a mesolow plowing SE across Lake Ontario overnight. These features can drop several inches in a short period of time. Since models often completely miss these features, it`s a little surprising that this one has been picked up by several different models. The HRRR/RAP are having some issues this morning with no new updates since 10/11Z, but the older runs together with the high res ARW/NMM have this feature somewhere moving inland somewhere between Monroe and Oswego counties. Will add a few inches to the Ontario lakeshore tonight to account for this...highest amounts toward Oswego County. Additional snowfall accums tonight will likely range from 6-12 inches within the most persistent regions of lake effect/lake enhanced snows to another general 1 to 4 inches elsewhere...with the heaviest snows focusing along the Chautauqua Ridge east of Lake Erie and also from Monroe county over to the Tug Hill Region east of Lake Ontario. The additional snowfall will also be compounded by increasing westerly to northwesterly winds...which will produce areas of blowing and drifting snow. Otherwise...we can expect a much colder night with continued cold air advection helping send temperatures down into the teens areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Yeah definitely not snowing here just to the west of you CNY WXSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 The meso some of us noted as early as yesterday is in disco: Some of the high resolution guidance shows a hint of a mesolow plowing SE across Lake Ontario overnight. These features can drop several inches in a short period of time. Since models often completely miss these features, it`s a little surprising that this one has been picked up by several different models. The HRRR/RAP are having some issues this morning with no new updates since 10/11Z, but the older runs together with the high res ARW/NMM have this feature somewhere moving inland somewhere between Monroe and Oswego counties. Will add a few inches to the Ontario lakeshore tonight to account for this...highest amounts toward Oswego County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: The meso some of us noted as early as yesterday is in disco: Some of the high resolution guidance shows a hint of a mesolow plowing SE across Lake Ontario overnight. These features can drop several inches in a short period of time. Since models often completely miss these features, it`s a little surprising that this one has been picked up by several different models. The HRRR/RAP are having some issues this morning with no new updates since 10/11Z, but the older runs together with the high res ARW/NMM have this feature somewhere moving inland somewhere between Monroe and Oswego counties. Will add a few inches to the Ontario lakeshore tonight to account for this...highest amounts toward Oswego County. Surprised they didn't mention the one that came onshore already... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 GB firing up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Syracuse, downtown, where I am at, had about 3-4" i would guesstimate, based on what i walked through (on pavement) about 830 a.m. Definately a bit less than the northern burbs as we were pushing 5" when I left my place around 0730. Just light fluffy non accum snow since then downtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Yes CNYWX, it is for this evening 7pm through 7PM tomorrow, so IDK?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Snow has stopped here. Final total is 6.3”, hoping for another couple inches tonight when that secondary front moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Another meso spinning up - may just brush southern shore counties as it moves ESE: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 They actually have it sandwiched between two areas of 8-12" both over So, Oswego County and So.Onondaga County, lol. If that actually happens I will be very very impressed but I have to disagree with them right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 NMM and Arw both have 1” liquid for Fulton!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2017 Author Share Posted December 12, 2017 6.8" total here. Pretty surprised, a heavy wet snow as well. Think all of WNY picks up another couple inches today into tomorrow. Potential for quite a bit more in hills south and northeast of city. Almost 50" of snow before winter even starts. I'm content for awhile. Hope you guys get slammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Both those models destroy orleans monroe Wayne. I am in walworth. So looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2017 Author Share Posted December 12, 2017 Arctic front will come through this afternoon, should be a nice burst for everyone before more purely LES sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 While we have a bit of a lull in the action, as a PSA, I'd like to remind everyone that use of the term "Death Band" is expressly frowned upon in this forum. We are not savages after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2017 Author Share Posted December 12, 2017 9 minutes ago, Syrmax said: While we have a bit of a lull in the action, as a PSA, I'd like to remind everyone that use of the term "Death Band" is expressly frowned upon in this forum. We are not savages after all. Your avatar has a savage in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Meso low definitely skirting shore...big flakes in Webster... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 NYC is approaching 55F, man are they in for a shock or what tonight, when that AF barrels through the area, with perhaps a squall or two to remind them that it is Winter, meteorologically, that is!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Seems like the latest models move the low away faster than previous runs and also have more of westerly wind component. I'm losing a little faith that the South shore will get smacked as hard as earlier thought. I really wanted a NNW wind and stacked up low for 12-18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Also moderate snow in Rochester right now with zero radar returns overhead. Must be underneath the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Also moderate snow in Rochester right now with zero radar returns overhead. Must be underneath the radar. Seeing returns here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 16 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Seems like the latest models move the low away faster than previous runs and also have more of westerly wind component. I'm losing a little faith that the South shore will get smacked as hard as earlier thought. I really wanted a NNW wind and stacked up low for 12-18 hours. I noticed that too. Gonna b closer to 104. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2017 Author Share Posted December 12, 2017 Steady light snow has started back up here. Upslope going to town in the hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Meso models give most of monroe county 6 to 12 tonight. Thruway north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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