BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2017 Author Share Posted December 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Yeah, all systems go until further notice...And you guys in the Rochester area should be pumped about what's going on in the UP of Michigan. Lake Superior is puking snow up there right now. Yeah I like places north of 90 to get a foot of snow from Orleans to Oswego. Best spot IMO will be Perrysburg and higher elevations of Catt county, I think some of those higher elevations get close to 2'. The WAA snows will be lower ratios, but the lake effect should be pretty fluffy. The last few LES events I experienced the last 2 weeks have been similar to synoptic systems with lower QPF (1:12 to 1:15). This base is going to take a long time to thaw out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah I like places north of 90 to get a foot of snow from Orleans to Oswego. Best spot IMO will be Perrysburg and higher elevations of Catt county, I think some of those higher elevations get close to 2'. Agree...that Perrysburg to Sherman area up on the ridge should come in with some serious totals. Time for them to play catch-up with you guys... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 I’m pretty optimistic at the moment..Temps are still in the low 20’s with a nice “fluff” factor..Nws from yesterday.. Additional support for widespread snow will come from warm advection near 850mb. A blend of 12z QPF guidance with SLR between 15:1 and 20:1 Hrrr continues to show about 1/2” liquid with the clipper by morning , could be looking at 6”-8” of fluff overnight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Pretty fun watching cyclogensis develop right over our heads. The radar is just going to blossom the next few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Pretty fun watching cyclogensis develop right over our heads. The radar is just going to blossom the next few hours Pretty funny as I was thinking the exact same thing, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Precip shield exploding directly over the area, lovely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 28 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Precip shield exploding directly over the area, lovely! Grant snow starting here already . Looking good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 I dunno just not feeling tonight/tomorrow's event. Only feeling 3-5" for BUF and suburbs. Those with the LE should make out well. Two other things To watch... System Wednesday night is trending north and now we are on the fringe. Anymore north and we could get another nice sysnapotic storm. Last frame of the NAM pickups a small wave and fires up a band on Erie with a SW flow. Out there but maybe something to watch. These quick hitting 8-12 hour bands have been putting down some snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 New Meso disco just updated for the Immediate CNY area includes all major cities from KROC, KOSW, KSYR, KRME & KFZY! Mesoscale Discussion 1795 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0930 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 Areas affected...Central NY Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 120330Z - 120930Z SUMMARY...Snowfall rates will increase gradually through 06-09z, with peak rates likely to exceed 1 inch per hour from about 07-12z. DISCUSSION...In association with a midlevel shortwave trough approaching the upper OH Valley, a deformation snow band has been developing eastward over Lake Erie. Low-midlevel warm advection/ascent in advance of the trough, as well as weak frontogenesis, will support additional eastward expansion of the snow band across central NY through the early morning hours. Top-down saturation of the column is just beginning across western into central NY, and snowfall rates will increase as column saturation develops eastward and forcing for ascent increases through the early morning hours. Peak snowfall rates should approach or exceed 1 inch per hour, and may persist for 3-6 hours at locations within the expected corridor of the snow band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 18 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: I dunno just not feeling tonight/tomorrow's event. Only feeling 3-5" for BUF and suburbs. Those with the LE should make out well. Two other things To watch... System Wednesday night is trending north and now we are on the fringe. Anymore north and we could get another nice sysnapotic storm. Last frame of the NAM pickups a small wave and fires up a band on Erie with a SW flow. Out there but maybe something to watch. These quick hitting 8-12 hour bands have been putting down some snow... I hope so, this is reminding me of last winter when the Buffalo metro kept sitting out event after event after event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Looks like they should have included the North COuntry in that Meso DIsco because its really starting to crank up that way, wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Also something to watch for roc Wednesday night Thursday is that system passing south of us wind goes n ne could be few inches of surprise fluff. Seen that happen many times before not modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Coming down good in the Falls area, already one inch down within the last hr or so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 That MESO disco is a happy surprise. Buckle up. Nicely shown on HRRR and Nam radar simulators. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 If it keeps up at this rate wouldn’t be suprised to see some warning amounts for Niagara county.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: If it keeps up at this rate wouldn’t be suprised to see some warning amounts for Niagara county.. There was no reason to backoff the amounts in niagara and orleans county today anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Flurries here in WS. All of metro BUF getting down sloped like a mofo with winds racing from the south right off the Boston Hills. Will be lucky to see an inch total with these paltry rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said: Flurries here in WS. All of metro BUF getting down sloped like a mofo with winds racing from the south right off the Boston Hills. Will be lucky to see an inch total with these paltry rates. How high are the boston hills anyway? Always wondered if they were as high, if not higher, than the Tug? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Cause we get down sloped something awful if there's a NE wind off the Tug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said: How high are the boston hills anyway? Always wondered if they were as high, if not higher, than the Tug? Max elevation is around 1800-1900'. Most of them between 1200'-1600'. Surrounding area is 800' or less. My house located about 7 miles north of the start of the Boston Hills sits at just over 600' elevation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Be on lookout tomorrow eve for some mesolows coming off the lakes me be one near roc in evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Be on lookout tomorrow eve for some mesolows coming off the lakes me be one near roc in evening. Yeah, i saw that on the meso models. Hey Tim, what do you think for some locations? I'm gonna give it a stab. This is a good early start. Buf-5" Niag-7" Roc-9" Irondequoit-8" (me)- a bit too close to the lake Walworth-9" Syr-11" Fulton-14" Williamson-12" That's total through Thurs AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 May get 3to6 inches overnight Rochester east. Then I would say 6 to 12 lake snow roc east. Still think somewhere in Wayne county gets 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Niagara and orleans max may get a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 I think you may be a bit low for rochester area especially if a mesolow comes ashore. Can get 3 4 inches in a hour with them. Seen it before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Cmc loves south shore next 10 days. This is at 10 to 1 as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 We had one last year, dumped about 6” in a couple hours.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 What a bummer compared to the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Its a thing of beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: We had one last year, dumped about 6” in a couple hours.. Yep. I was in a meso two years ago. It looked like the NIKE swirl. It came on shore with me just on the west side of it. You could literally watch the snow accumulate. Like, hold out your hand for 30 seconds and get it completely covered. Visibility was about 25 feet. Madness. No thunder though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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