CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 This is a nice amount of moisture to work with I would think, considering its a Clipper/Miller B type system, so all in all not a bad little bugger! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Looks good for tomorrow morning after 4-5” has already fallen.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Precip shield blossoming as it hits the southern Ontario/ Lake Erie area...light snow, light winds out of the ENE...all signs pointing to a more southern low track...and more appreciable accumulations imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Precip shield blossoming as it hits the southern Ontario/ Lake Erie area...light snow, light winds out of the ENE...all signs pointing to a more southern low track...and more appreciable accumulations imo. Can't be over said (although I'm likely approaching that). Where you located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2017 Author Share Posted December 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Precip shield blossoming as it hits the southern Ontario/ Lake Erie area...light snow, light winds out of the ENE...all signs pointing to a more southern low track...and more appreciable accumulations imo. Yeah light snow all day here, very picturesque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 3 hr pressure drops showing a surprisingly southern component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 This is going to wrap up and really deepen once it make the turn north. I think the low goes between Erie and pit and cuts over to Binghamton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: 3 hr pressure drops showing a surprisingly southern component. Let's see if KBUF's accumulation map reflects the more favorable LP track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 My prediction...For my area (NW Wayne Cty.) thinking 2-3 from warm advection, 3-4 from LP comma, and 10+ from LE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Gonna be a close call for Finger Lakes south (no surprise there). Looks like we warm up right as the dry slot hits us before temps crash back down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Tim how much you thinking for BUF northward to the Falls area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 I would say 5 to 10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 5 south 10 north toward lake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Tried to reply to this but something bugged out...Dave I live in Williamsville...Tim I think those totals are low as the NWS and local mets do not seem to have a good handle on the path or teack of the lp...Todd Santos of WIVB channel 4 in buffalo just showed the future cast which started at 6pm and showed no snow yet in WNY, clearly that is wrong, second he is showing darker blues for about 9 hours and calling fir 2 to 4 inches and thats it. Third thing he has the lp above the Adirondack area and it is clearly south of NY state line and 4 there is a seemingly strong forcing over southern michigan that appears strong and growing in size...add it up an I believe this event over achieves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 It does have the chance to over achieve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 This H850 is a thing of beauty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 5 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Scaled back for some..Warnings just issued.. I thought the original map was overdone, but I think this map underdone. I was thinking 7 to 10 for BUF, north BUF, Tonawanda etc., 4 to 7 buf for downtown BUF lackawanna/OP area (central Erie) with areas of 10-14 inches on the escarpment of Niagara and Orleans Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Some really fluffy snow coming down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Latest HRRR 10 hr showing LP signature near Pittsburgh. Light to moderate snow all night for WNY. 3-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 There was a touch of freezing drizzle reported in London, Ontario and northward for the past few hours. Looks like a pocket of dry air between the north and southern shortwaves near 700-800mb. I don't think that will be an issue farther west, but something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: There was a touch of freezing drizzle reported in London, Ontario and northward for the past few hours. Looks like a pocket of dry air between the north and southern shortwaves near 700-800mb. I don't think that will be an issue farther west, but something to keep an eye on. Im also really unimpressed, at this time, by the precip field to the west...l9oks like its trying to expand but is pretty thin atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Here's some Rochester patio furniture for ya. Lol. This is gonna be the before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 30 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Im also really unimpressed, at this time, by the precip field to the west...l9oks like its trying to expand but is pretty thin atm. What precip field? Lol, looks like nothing more than scattered snow showers. Not a good feeling about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2017 Author Share Posted December 12, 2017 Precip field should expand quite a bit next 6-8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Precip field should expand quite a bit next 6-8 hours. I do notice the upper level precip trying to connect with the stronger lp precip field near southern Ontario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 The band over S Michigan (Lansing) is what blossoms over WNY in 3-5 hrs. I hope. LP is definitely a tick further south. On the HRR above, you can see where it wants to go- right through the twin tiers. If it does that, I expect snowfall to overperform expectations. Esp thruway north. Instead of 1-3 with the synoptic we'll be looking at more like 3-6. Everytime with that track. Now we gotta just hold tight and watch it fill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2017 Author Share Posted December 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I do notice the upper level precip trying to connect with the stronger lp precip field near southern Ontario Warm air advection will allow snowband to expand in coverage to cover most of Upstate New York. The low will be strengthening quite a bit as it nears the PA/NY line. The farther south it travels the better, we avoid any mixing issues and dry slot issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Canadian (not sure which) model lends support for an upgrade to Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: The band over S Michigan (Lansing) is what blossoms over WNY in 3-5 hrs. I hope. LP is definitely a tick further south. On the HRR above, you can see where it wants to go- right through the twin tiers. If it does that, I expect snowfall to overperform expectations. Esp thruway north. Instead of 1-3 with the synoptic we'll be looking at more like 3-6. Everytime with that track. Now we gotta just hold tight and watch it fill. Yeah, all systems go until further notice...And you guys in the Rochester area should be pumped about what's going on in the UP of Michigan. Lake Superior is puking snow up there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Already starting to fill in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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