Thinksnow18 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 It appears as everyonein WNY except Chautauqua co has been downgraded to a winter weather advisory for 4 to 8 inches from 7pm tonight through Wednesday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 9 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Watches issued Scaled back for some..Warnings just issued.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: It appears as everyonein WNY except Chautauqua co has been downgraded to a winter weather advisory for 4 to 8 inches from 7pm tonight through Wednesday afternoon. Southern Erie picked up a Lake Effect Snow Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 107 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 NYZ012-019-020-085-120215- /O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0007.171212T0000Z-171213T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0010.171212T0300Z-171214T0000Z/ Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville 107 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. A general snow tonight will transition to lake effect snow Tuesday. Travel will be very difficult at times. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 15 inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows, with local amounts of up to 20 inches across the higher terrain of Chautauqua County. * WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie counties. Greatest amounts across the higher terrain inland from Lake Erie. * WHEN...10 PM today to 7 PM Wednesday. The period of heaviest snow accumulation is expected to be late Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Scaled back for some..Warnings just issued.. Much more reasonable. Monroe-Oswego under Winter Storm Warning. Haven't been able to pull up the text yet. Glitchy on their end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Link to south shore warnings. NWS says 10-14", Monroe-Oswego. Seems do-able. No talk of mixing except in Herkimer... https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=17380846 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Euro looks pretty good, high temp of 34 is manageable, looks like about 3/4”(kfzy) before the lake starts firing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 4 to 8 is to low for orleans and niagara Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2017 Author Share Posted December 11, 2017 25-35 mph gusts tomorrow and weds. Going to be lots of blowing and drifting as well. Going to be some insane drifts here with almost a 30" base already. Should be a fun week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: 4 to 8 is to low for orleans and niagara That occurred to me. Plus, they do better than us with the low track. I woulda at least kept Orleans in the Warn. But alas, that's why nobody pays me the big bucks. I'm going on guesses and mushroom visions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Ukmet really showing good accums over Niag and Orl. Much better than previous run. (Oz vs: 12z) Also, low tracks from Erie to Syr, a bit further south. It then wraps into a blockbuster over NE Ontario.970 LP.., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2017 Author Share Posted December 11, 2017 Snow depth 22". SWE equivalent 2.52". Pretty thick stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Ukmet really showing good accums over Niag and Orl. Much better than previous run. (Oz vs: 12z) Also, low tracks from Erie to Syr, a bit further south. It then wraps into a blockbuster over NE Ontario.970 LP.., I stand by my earlier call of 7 to 10 for buffalo airport north and east withel heavier pockets niagara and Orleans county. Ukmet has buffalo north at .7 liquid equivalent which would translate to those totals easily with the snow ratio Tuesday night and Wednesday at 15 or 20 to 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Man that's some piece of energy dropping through the upper midwest in SE IO-NC-IN all the while starting to stack in the process, basically a strengthening system, lovely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Man that's some piece of energy dropping through the upper midwest in SE IO-NC-IN all the while starting to stack in the process, basically a strengthening system, lovely! It's a water vapor hurricane! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Just now, vortmax said: It's a water vapor hurricane! lol Definitely archiving this one for future reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Am I missing something that WNY has LES warnings while CNY has WS warnings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 I can see KBGM just going with advisories other than for Oneida county...synoptic portion of clipper likely plagued by a few issues that prevent reaching anywhere near warning criteria and total accums are stretched over 48-60 hours making this a lower impact (thinking Syracuse general area in CNY). But we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 On the 12Z Europa, the SLP makes it to about Jamestown PA, then begins to transfer its energy to a Coastal Eastern end of LI and heads due N-NW up over Vermont, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: On the 12Z Europa, the SLP makes it to about Jamestown PA, then begins to transfer its energy to a Coastal Eastern end of LI and heads due N-NW up over Vermont, lol! Yeah unless im missing something that lp trajectory is definitely going to be south of the NY border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 I'd also like to point out there isn't alot of precip with this system yet either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Yeah unless im missing something that lp trajectory is definitely going to be south of the NY border. We'll see as we're pretty much nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 2 areas of LP...southern one slightly stronger...let's see where they merge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 According to this site the LP will follow the NY/PA border... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 There's also 2 distinct pieces of energy as well so.....Weird if you ask me, but we'll see which wins out I guess, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, vortmax said: According this this site the LP will follow the NY/PA border... That looks fantastic. HRRR also showing best snow (with synoptic) Well NW of a Jamestown-Rome line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Been snowing here lightly all day. Starting to accumulate now. I tell ya that spin is a thing out of a textbook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 NAM looks great. This position would be fantastic thruway north. Excited! Not letting me upload it. Says I can only upload .02 MB? Is there a daily limit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Well, KBGM just pulled the ripcord on Warnings for much of CNY, Advisories for southern tier towards Catskills. So much for my musings. I am thinking we see about 8-10" over a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Go to “account “ then “my attachment “ , delete some..If the file is still too large, crop it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Back in business. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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