SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Just beautiful... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1.5" of Lake fluff here. Water content pretty low. May evaporate by morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Looks like I will be missing the LES north of Buffalo near Amherst when i come up there to visit soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 32 minutes ago, stanleyjenkins said: 4.5" here in Chili. 8pm measurement. How far from airport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1794.html Mesoscale Discussion 1794 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017 Areas affected...lee of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 110155Z - 110700Z SUMMARY...Persistent lake effect snow bands extending west-northwest from Lake Erie and Lake Ontario will persist into the overnight. Highest snowfall rates from these bands are peaking now (locally in excess of 2 inches per hour) and should begin to weaken later tonight. DISCUSSION...Lake effect snow bands have persisted through the afternoon across portions of Erie, Wyoming, Genesee, and Orleans Counties in western New York and Jefferson, Oswego, Lewis, and Herkimer Counties across northern New York. Observations suggest that these bands have intensified over the last few hours and are producing snowfall rates in excess of 2" per hour, with locally higher rates likely. Given water temperatures in the mid 30s F, 850 millibar temperatures of -9.5 C (per 00Z BUF sounding), and westerly low-level flow around 35 knots, these lake effect snow bands will continue for the next 4-6 hours. In the 06-08Z time frame, a surface cold front should move through the area resulting in low-level flow veering. As such, lake effect snow bands will shift south and west, with an overall weakening trend given the shorter fetch over the lake. ..Marsh/Broyles.. 12/11/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Clipper bringing some warm air at surface, ksyr makes it to near 40 by early Tuesday afternoon on the 4k nam.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Clipper bringing some warm air at surface, ksyr makes it to near 40 by early Tuesday afternoon on the 4k nam.. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Snow totally shut off last 30 minutes. Eyeballing 8" so far. Rich what are you at so far that OP Hamburg zone is still getting destroyed on radar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Will be 20 to 1 ratios looking at wide spread over a foot totals along south shore with more after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Some nice streamers for sure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 My thinking still the same. 3 to 5 from clipper. Then 8 to 12 plus from lake snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Some nice streamers for sure.. After watching Andrew Baglini on WIVB I'm even more certain monday night through Wednesday will produce 8 to 12 inches from Niagara Frontier to Orleans County where heading east amounts will increase. The synoptic moisture after the low goes by Tuesday will be enhanced and blossom over the areas I just mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Starting to think lake snow may continue right into weekend south and south east of lake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 0z Gfs 24 hr precipitation only for the clipper, looks good.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Yup 3 to 6 just from system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 0z Gfs 24 hr precipitation only for the clipper, looks good.. Note the hvy axis north of I90. Oswego looks nice. Also probably early enhancement over Niagara. We shall see. I do wonder if some of those 1" amts aren't sleet returns (but it's tot precip-so idk). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 8.7" here! Not crazy but I'll take it! 6.2" in 4 hours from 530-930. What did everyone else see around BUF today Wonder if anyone in Hamburg OP cracked 2 feet. Love nights like this... Cold Quite Desolte... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Could be some convective sleet accums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 If you look at high res models you can see towards the end of run over western lake ontario and gb the wrap around moisture being stripped away but pure lake snow continues to spew. So on globals it looks like snow stops but it doesnt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Some watches being issued in kalb cwa, north of Albany, calling for 8”-12”.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 After synoptic moisture moves out and you get pure lake snow in the artic air that' when you can go past 25 to 1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Wrf through 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Gfs sure sees a active pattern through Christmas. Mostly snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: 8.7" here! Not crazy but I'll take it! 6.2" in 4 hours from 530-930. What did everyone else see around BUF today Wonder if anyone in Hamburg OP cracked 2 feet. Love nights like this... Cold Quite Desolte... We had 1” and across the city line in Amherst was 0”. So much for the epic 4-6 inch jackpot from last Thurs-Fri. It’s dismaying to think we could get through this entire gold mine of a pattern with maybe 8” over 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Still snowing in West Seneca(albeit ighter now). Up to 17.1” since noon on Sunday... 6” in 3 hours fell at one point between around 6-9pm. Orchard Park and Hamburg have to have 3 feet by now. the gradient with this one is astounding reminding me of 2010,2014 (although obviously not as heavy as 2014). Drive 2 miles to my north and there’s 6”, Drive 2 miles to my south and there’s 28”... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1 hour ago, WNash said: We had 1” and across the city line in Amherst was 0”. So much for the epic 4-6 inch jackpot from last Thurs-Fri. It’s dismaying to think we could get through this entire gold mine of a pattern with maybe 8” over 10 days. Damm only 3 inches here too man.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Can't catch a break with this **** lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Rochester Dave wrote this; "Note the hvy axis north of I90. Oswego looks nice. Also probably early enhancement over Niagara. We shall see. I do wonder if some of those 1" amts aren't sleet returns (but it's tot precip-so idk)". Why do you Wonder Dave? Please explain to me how these two soundings from 15Z and 18Z Tuesday show a mix with sleet, and I'm serious? Do you even know what a Sleet sounding looks like? That's a serious question too? Can you interpret the parameters? This easily answers your questions about sleet very easily! Just off the deck at around H925-H950 which is basically the surface, at or > freezing but it doesn't matter cause it's virtually on the ground! When I see something that doesn't make much sense to me, and then I do research to back it up, and I turn out to be correct through science, I will speak up! H850 off the 12K NAM! I'm trying to figure out how it ip/sleets with H850's between -4-6C! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 WEll I gotta say, KBUF did a great job over here, with 2-4" forecasted and ended up with 3.5" so a good forecast, no on to this next event which can have many surprises involved with it. LES parameters for later Tuesday evening through Thursday are intense, to extreme at times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 This is an intense upper lvl H500 system diving SEward towards Chitown! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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