Upstate/Eastern New York

[BuffaloWeather]

6 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

You mean WSW, no more LES watches. However, their still using the LES warnings though, so it makes no sense to me!

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Yeah, forgot about that. It still makes no sense whatsoever to me. Winter storm watches are for synoptic events. Lake effect watches for LES events. They are two different animals around here. Going to take awhile to get used to. 

[BuffaloWeather]

This was updated as well. 

A significant lake effect event will likely develop Wednesday and
persist through Thursday night or Friday morning for locations east
and northeast of Lake Erie. There remains some uncertainty at this
time range with the details of band placement and intensity.

After the first lake effect event is disrupted Friday by a wave of
low pressure moving through the area, a second significant lake
effect may develop for the weekend into the beginning of next week.
There remains plenty of uncertainty at this time range with the
details of band placement and intensity.

[CNY-LES FREAK]

These totals a quite paltry to say the least but really not concerned with snow totals but noticed winds may veer enough next weekend to get us in on the action for as several hrs, then there are several synoptic chances as well. Notice how New England always seem to do well, even moreso, than Syracuse, lol.



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[ayuud11]

12z GEM has a beautiful LES band that goes on from 06z Wed to 12z Friday before it breaks apart moving northward with the approaching shortwave.

[ayuud11]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

2 feet totals on the GEM, GFS is similar but about 40 miles more south.

Goofus out to lunch on this one? 

[lakeeffectkid383]

19 minutes ago, ayuud11 said:

Goofus out to lunch on this one? 

The NAM shows the band getting even up to the northtowns while the GFS has it down over Silver Creek and Springville down to Ellicottville...

 

think the NWS waits till tomorrow morning to issue a WSW, need to get a few more models runs in to try and pinpoint things better.

[ayuud11]

34 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

The NAM shows the band getting even up to the northtowns while the GFS has it down over Silver Creek and Springville down to Ellicottville...

 

think the NWS waits till tomorrow morning to issue a WSW, need to get a few more models runs in to try and pinpoint things better.

I'm looking at the BUFKIT data for the 12z GFS and it does have those winds backed all the way to 250 all day on Thursday with moderate instability..

[ayuud11]

There might be a burst of lake enhanced snow as the shortwave passes to our north on early Wednesday, Both the GFS and NAM show it nicely.

[ayuud11]

Quote

Cold air advection and rising surface pressures will help to taper
off rain from west to east Tuesday evening while bringing a threat
for perhaps some advisory level wind gusts down wind of Lakes Erie
and Ontario. This is possible as a lingering 45-50kt jet is mixed
down in cold advection along with some funneling along the lakes.
Gusts of 35-45 mph have been included for now based on 12z GFS but
could end up being stronger and will need to be watched.
Temperatures will fall sharply through the 40s and into the 30s as
850mb temps cool toward -10C with a shortwave trough pivoting across
the eastern Great Lakes. The quickly falling temps may cause the
synoptic precip to change over to snow over the higher terrain
before ending. Lake effect snow looks to develop quickly in
southwest flow on the heels of the departing synoptic precipitation
early Wednesday morning as lake induced equilibrium levels rise
sharply to around 10kft. The snow bands should be focused mainly
south of metro Buffalo and Watertown but will be relatively tame the
first half of the day as synoptic moisture does not ramp up until
later Wednesday. Do to this, we still expect a less favorable period
for lake effect through mid-day Wednesday with the more limited
moisture and elevated shear behind a departing shortwave.

Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night lake effect snows are
expected to ramp up in intensity as equilibrium levels rise above
10kft with plentiful moisture and lift reaching into the favorable
dendritic snow growth zone per BUFKIT point soundings. The flow
through Wednesday night looks to remain about 250 deg which should
favor band placement to remain just south of Metro Buffalo and
Watertown although the exact placement of these bands could shift
with several days to go before the event unfolds. The event could be
the first significant lake effect snow event this season as CIPS
Analogs using 12z GFS valid Thursday afternoon indicate 72h Median
COOP Snowfall greater than 8 inches off Lake Erie and greater than
12 inches off Lake Ontario. Outside of these snow bands, there is
just a chance of some light snow showers in cyclonic flow aloft.
Winds will remain rather blustery through Wednesday which will
combine with Temps in the 30s to bring wind chill temps in the 20s
Wednesday. Winds and temps in the 20s Wednesday night will bring
wind chills dipping into the teens.

 

[southbuffalowx]

Looks like it might be similar parameters to the storm in 2010. I got 40" in South Buffalo from that storm. If we get little movement from the band for 24 hours+ then we could see similar totals.

http://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2010-2011&event=B

[lakeeffectkid383]

9 minutes ago, southbuffalowx said:

Looks like it might be similar parameters to the storm in 2010. I got 40" in South Buffalo from that storm. If we get little movement from the band for 24 hours+ then we could see similar totals.

http://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2010-2011&event=B

Doubt we see similar totals as that event had very good synoptic moisture and very little shear. Winds will be whipping during this event with both shear from the speed of the winds and directional shear from the surface to 850mb... Maybe half the totals of that event which still wouldn’t be too bad...

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I could really use this experience this week from BUF, I am currently on Cape Cod, but I need a ride to BUF, I guess I could wait until snow happens here on Cape Cod, but I could be waiting a while.  So I want to take videos of the snow in BUF, my grandmother lives there.

[BuffaloWeather]

The pattern coming up is one of the best for continuous snow chances over the next few weeks. I'm going to be keeping pretty detailed accumulations, QPF, snow depth measurements for this one. Hopefully you guys can do that as well. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Consensus is gathering for pretty big event when the globals are showing these totals 10:1 Ratios

[lakeeffectkid383]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Consensus is gathering for pretty big event when the globals are showing these totals 10:1 Ratios

Ya pretty impressive for sure, should be a solid warning event at the least... and not that it matters but that GFS clown map is the Kuchera Method algorithm which is always like double of reality. Still, at this early juncture, I would think we’ll see a WSW  tomorrow morning for about 8-16” between Wednesday and Friday for the Southtowns.

[BuffaloWeather]

4 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Ya pretty impressive for sure, should be a solid warning event at the least... and not that it matters but that GFS clown map is the Kuchera Method algorithm which is always like double of reality. Still, at this early juncture, I would think we’ll see a WSW  tomorrow morning for about 8-16” between Wednesday and Friday for the Southtowns.

Still to early to put totals on it but that sounds about right for the 1st event.

[ayuud11]

2 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Ya pretty impressive for sure, should be a solid warning event at the least... and not that it matters but that GFS clown map is the Kuchera Method algorithm which is always like double of reality. Still, at this early juncture, I would think we’ll see a WSW  tomorrow morning for about 8-16” between Wednesday and Friday for the Southtowns.

Same thinking 8-16” for south buffalo out to south towns and 6-12” from Downtown out to airport. Areas north of downtown might get some advisory level snowfall as that band moves northward later on if band holds together..

[ayuud11]

Not that it matters but the 18z model suite have more of a SW component for that first round..

[CNY-LES FREAK]

One good thing about this pattern, is that, when it snows, it won't be going anywhere anytime soon, so a White Xmas seems quite probable!

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[BuffaloWeather]

[lakeeffectkid383]

8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Those both look awesome lol.

 

like ayuud said I think the band makes it up to downtown to the airport or even a little north as they always seem to do in early season events. Maybe some thunder and lightning late Wednesday night and Thursday as synoptic moisture increases and shear decreases? 

[BuffaloWeather]

10 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Those both look awesome lol.

 

like ayuud said I think the band makes it up to downtown to the airport or even a little north as they always seem to do in early season events. Maybe some thunder and lightning late Wednesday night and Thursday as synoptic moisture increases and shear decreases? 

I don't think the band will be that intense to get thunder and lightning.

Event looks to start Weds afternoon so assuming Winter Storm Watches tomorrow morning.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

23 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Wow the channel 7 model is very aggressive with an early start time on that band.  Should be interesting tomorrow once mesos start picking this up on what the start time will be.  GFS wants to hold anything orangized off until late day Wednesday while the NAM is trying to get it going mid-late morning.  

[lakeeffectkid383]

20 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Wow the channel 7 model is very aggressive with an early start time on that band.  Should be interesting tomorrow once mesos start picking this up on what the start time will be.  GFS wants to hold anything orangized off until late day Wednesday while the NAM is trying to get it going mid-late morning.  

Just watched channel 4s weathercast and by 7am Wednesday their model also has the band already starting to crank, in fact looks almost identical to channel 7s model at the same time. 

[Buffalo Bumble]

Anyone in the Williamsville/Snyder area should be in good shape.  Reason...I'm heading to New Orleans for work until late Thursday.  Never seems to fail that whenever we get hit I'm out of town...

[Buffalo Bumble]

Lots of fuel just waiting for a spark...

 

[tim123]

Roc may get some good snow from this. 

[WNash]

7 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Roc may get some good snow from this. 

Does weather anywhere other than your backyard hold any interest to you?

 

[Thinksnow18]

14 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Roc may get some good snow from this. 

Last December the models never showed the early December band that hit Williamsville with close to 10". Not saying the models are wrong however there does tend to be a southern bias to the models when it comes to early season LES. I think wed and Thursday will be very interesting for the city and the nearby northtowns of clarence and Williamsville.  

[Thinksnow18]

This is the event I was speaking of last year...notice the inland curve to the band...quite interesting!