ayuud11 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 And Devin has spoken...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 9, 2017 Author Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, ayuud11 said: And Devin has spoken...... You should see the text I got from him the other day. I thought the world was ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 3 hours ago, ayuud11 said: Check out the 06z GFS Cobb snowfall data, it has KIAG,KBUF and KROC getting over foot of snow for Tues-Wed and another 6"+ later on with the Thurs-Fri system!! http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=kiag http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=kbuf http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=kroc New Run gives roc 14 inches for mid week lake snow. 25 to 30 to 1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 18 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: That map is so overdone south of Buffalo. They are way too broad brushed with their maps. I am not going to see 6-8” from this and neither is the city of Buffalo itself.... I’ll be lucky to see a couple flakes from the lake effect as it looks to initially set up over Hanburg and Orchard Park and then quickly shift south to the Boston Hills then even further south... this pattern has been absolutely horrific for us in Buffalo, Lackawanna, West Seneca, Lancaster... to our north and south several inches (in some cases well over a foot and a half of snow) while we have totally green grass, and this lake effect event looks no different. Then if we’re lucky we might catch a couple inches of 25:1 fluff from that synoptic storm that will go poof as soon as the sun hits it even at 20 degrees... give me sunny and 60 if it’s gonna be like this crap. Way to generous with that northern cutoff on their past two maps. Feeling 1-2" for the metro, WS, SB... 2-6" Hamburg, OP, EA. 6-12+ Dunkirk, Angola, to Springville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Nice look from the sky. Can see the snow cover for the north and south and the wedge of sorrow in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 18 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Nice look from the sky. Can see the snow cover for the north and south and the wedge of sorrow in the middle. I call that the "Transition" zone, that **** been happening for years now..LES bands literally zoom right through that area lol and then either just stall north or south of that area 45 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: You should see the text I got from him the other day. I thought the world was ending. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Looks like euro coming juiced up for Tuesday. With great lake snow scnario for rochester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Looks like euro coming juiced up for Tuesday. With great lake snow scnario for rochester if you got access to those maps can you post? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Euro looks good for tomorrow, 1/2” liquid on that model for lake effect is impressive lol Cobb method (Gfs) for ksyr showed ratios at 18/-20/1.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 These maps are free on internet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Inch of precip in roc from event on euro. 20 to 30 to 1 ratios you do the math Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 This Clipper that's moving through So MI and No IN is gonna over produce, I just have this feeling. Gotta say, it looks good synoptically speaking with jet induced dynamics as well. I'm not saying its gonna drop 8" but I can definitely see 2-4" with higher elevations getting perhaps to 6". Do I think it veers the winds enough to get the Erie band into the city and the Southtowns, yeah I do, but that's just me, lol, as it really depends on how strong this SW gets as it already looks stronger than it did on models this time yesterday. Just looked at the 12Z GFS, WOW what a run if it actually came to fruition. As far as the System for Tuesday into Wednesday, I'm more afraid of the SW dropping further South (Image below) but right now Models are in fairly good agreement and I cant see a 400 mile shift to the South lke to the Delmarva so I'm not that concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Inch of precip in roc from event on euro. 20 to 30 to 1 ratios you do the math Tim, its extremely difficult to get 20-30/1" but ot impossible. Temps of 27 to 34F will give a ratio of 10/1", 20-27 will give 15/1", 15-19F will give 20/1" and finally between 10-14F will get you to 30/1" but I don't see temps getting that low during either the synoptic event or the LE/LES to follow but those numbers are a good rule of thumb to follow. Wed, if we manage to stay in the upper teens like some models have us getting to, then we may see those ratios but other than Wed, I see the most 15-18/1" which is still a very dry snow wich accumulates at a very fast rate especially if the snow flake producing elements are there thermodynamically and I think this will be the case for the mid week event, especially after the AF passes through and the LE kicks in, gonna be a good week for everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 http://wx.graphics/models/gfs/gfs.php I must be a moron. This was a poor run for the Ontario South shore. The NWS is gonna have to completely rely on the trailing trough to give Roc headlines. The majority of event will be upslope (Buf ski country) and westerly winds. And it IS a trend. Each run the surface low depicted 25 miles north of previous. Ill happily be wrong. Look, it's a rough start to the snow season and I'm cranky. On a different note, Buf south town's, including Hamburg, look super interesting tomorrow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 The Euro is more interesting. It shows the vort (on the surface) around Western Maryland, as freak is suggesting. It also shows the low retrogradinng towards James Bay and taking its sweet time in VT etc.... Im still more convinced it runs north but at least SOME hope this pkg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Warnings up... NWS snow map looks MUCH better now. Well better in the sense of verification... Looks like my green lawn is here to stay... Lake Effect Snow Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 159 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2017 NYZ012-019-020-085-100300- /O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0006.171210T1200Z-171211T1100Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0009.171210T0600Z-171211T1200Z/ Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville 159 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2017 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Travel will be very difficult at times. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 13 inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Southern Erie, western Wyoming, northern and western Chautauqua, and northwest Cattaraugus counties. * WHEN...1 AM Sunday to 7 AM Monday. Heaviest snow expected later Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Narrow bands of heavy lake effect snow will produce very low visibility and deep snow cover on roads at times, leading to difficult travel conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 2 hours ago, WesterlyWx said: That map is so overdone south of Buffalo. They are way too broad brushed with their maps. I am not going to see 6-8” from this and neither is the city of Buffalo itself.... I’ll be lucky to see a couple flakes from the lake effect as it looks to initially set up over Hanburg and Orchard Park and then quickly shift south to the Boston Hills then even further south... this pattern has been absolutely horrific for us in Buffalo, Lackawanna, West Seneca, Lancaster... to our north and south several inches (in some cases well over a foot and a half of snow) while we have totally green grass, and this lake effect event looks no different. Then if we’re lucky we might catch a couple inches of 25:1 fluff from that synoptic storm that will go poof as soon as the sun hits it even at 20 degrees... give me sunny and 60 if it’s gonna be like this crap. I wouldn’t exaggerate what northtown locations got. In NE Buffalo we had maybe 4” from Wed-Fri, and Williamsville and Amherst had at most an inch or two on top of that. Kenmore and Tonawanda looked pretty bare. As you know, a few inches of snow after forecasts called for a multi day monster on a great flow is not a consolation. And I see BUF has knocked the city/north down to 1-2 inches. The epic shafting continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Nam coming in way farther south for next week system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Much better look on nam more like euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Nam goes ape**** on rochester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 9, 2017 Author Share Posted December 9, 2017 Latest run of NAM/RGEM has it over Buffalo southtowns for quite a few hours. So close for the Bills game Delta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 43 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Latest run of NAM/RGEM has it over Buffalo southtowns for quite a few hours. So close for the Bills game Delta. Yeah 18z runs shifted quite a few miles north for tomorrow. Almost back where they had them 2 days ago right over Hamburg and OP... Timing looks like it will be just as the game is ending but close enough that it could sneak in there... Let 'er rip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Latest run of NAM/RGEM has it over Buffalo southtowns for quite a few hours. So close for the Bills game Delta. I've been afraid to even post something for fear of jinxing it, and I'm not a superstitious guy haha. Orchard park appears to be on the absolute edge of some potentially very heavy snow....this could be the one. The NAM's wind profile looks like nearly a slam dunk to me but thats just me cherry picking the best model for this scenario. Deep dendritic growth, high EQ, good moisture, and the timing is nearly perfect with it moving into OP right around noon. There is a bit of shear but its not as bad as earlier this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 hour ago, tim123 said: Nam goes ape**** on rochester Can you post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 New afd from buffalo is impressed with lake parameters for Tuesday night to Wednesday night. Equilibrium 10 to 15000 feet and well aligned nw flow with ample moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 9, 2017 Author Share Posted December 9, 2017 Looks good tomorrow with latest guidance. By early to mid afternoon, boundary layer flow will back to the WSW and become better aligned again. This should allow a band of snow to intensify along the Lake Erie shore. This band may initially focus on the Chautauqua and southern Erie County shorelines, but should then move up into the more distant Buffalo Southtowns for a few hours from mid afternoon through early evening, with a band of heavy snow running from Angola to Hamburg and East Aurora, and extending inland across Wyoming County. Snowfall rates may increase to 1-2 inches per hour during this time frame. This band of heavy lake effect snow will then drift slowly southward across Southern Erie and Wyoming counties Sunday evening with snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour, then move farther south back into the western Southern Tier overnight. Flow will become northwest with shear rapidly increasing by early Monday morning, with any remaining lake effect quickly weakening across the western Southern Tier. Expect total accumulations of 8-12 inches in the most persistent bands across Southern Erie and western Wyoming counties, extending into northern/western Chautauqua County and northwest Cattaraugus County. Some local amounts of over a foot are possible in the Boston Hills and possibly the southern portions of the more distant Buffalo Southtowns. This is in a similar area to the previous event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 This band is about to demolish SOuth Bend with 2-4"/hr snows within this band! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 9, 2017 Author Share Posted December 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: This band is about to demolish SOuth Bend with 2-4"/hr snows within this band! Yeah that band is ridiculous, wish I was under that thing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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