Upstate/Eastern New York

[vortmax]

2 hours ago, ayuud11 said:

 

Damm dude check out that 18z GFS bufkit data, that's some impressive LES parameters showing up on Tues-Wed timeframe.

Bring it! 

[BuffaloWeather]

That band for Sunday is now showing up below Buffalo southtowns in all models. Would have been cool to see a nice band over Orchard Park for Bills game. 

[DeltaT13]

8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That band for Sunday is now showing up below Buffalo southtowns in all models. Would have been cool to see a nice band over Orchard Park for Bills game. 

I know!  and I am going now so I am completely fixated on watching the models for that band.  Huge bucketlist item to be at a Bills game in heavy snow.  I was at the winter classic which was pretty snowy and amazing but then Sidney Crosby ruined that day.  Ugh.  Still my snowiest sport event memory.  

 

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said:

I know!  and I am going now so I am completely fixated on watching the models for that band.  Huge bucketlist item to be at a Bills game in heavy snow.  I was at the winter classic which was pretty snowy and amazing but then Sidney Crosby ruined that day.  Ugh.  Still my snowiest sport event memory.  

 

Yeah I was there too. It was an incredible event. I've been to bills games with snow, but no lake effect band over them. 

[rochesterdave]

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2017120900&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=

This is what I'm afraid of. If this goes across Lake Ontario, Rochester sees very little snow. 

[rochesterdave]

http://wx.graphics/models/cmc/cmc.php

unless the trend changes, and it usually doesn't, this ones sailed. Shoot. It looked nice while it lasted. 

Hope our friends in the big cities enjoy what they're getting!

[tim123]

Get lake snow. Plus I am not buying it going north yet

[CNY-LES FREAK]

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2017120900&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=

This is what I'm afraid of. If this goes across Lake Ontario, Rochester sees very little snow. 

Oh well, sorry for KROC, We just got put under WSW

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[CNY-LES FREAK]

http://wx.graphics/models/cmc/cmc.php

unless the trend changes, and it usually doesn't, this ones sailed. Shoot. It looked nice while it lasted. 

Hope our friends in the big cities enjoy what they're getting!

Stop bro, please, the first system needs to pass first, and by tonight's or tomorrow's 12z this starts trending South. Like always, We'll see!

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[CNY-WXFREAK]

3 day totals Euro

2 days later, lol, This at 120 5 days

GFS at 72hrs, day 3

Day 5, 120 hrs, GFS

Looks good to me.

7 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

http://wx.graphics/models/cmc/cmc.php

unless the trend changes, and it usually doesn't, this ones sailed. Shoot. It looked nice while it lasted. 

Hope our friends in the big cities enjoy what they're getting!

 

I know your thoughts express concern for the KROC area but its an awesome pattern for even the South Shore, IMO.

your relying on the CMC, lol, yesterday it had it up over Ottawa, lol, so with one run, it dropped South to Lake Ontario, today's 12Z will be further South.  There's NO TREND either, as I cant even see where your getting this from? What meteorological explanation can you give me , as to why you think this is going North, other than the CMC, seriously Dave because you just throw thoughts out there with nothing to back it up, unless its a complete guess? 

[tim123]

Next weeks event nws saying counties bordering south shore lake ontario significant snow. 1 to 2 inch hour rates

[ayuud11]

20 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Next weeks event nws saying counties bordering south shore lake ontario significant snow. 1 to 2 inch hour rates

Check out the 06z GFS Cobb snowfall data, it has KIAG,KBUF and KROC getting over foot of snow for Tues-Wed and another 6"+ later on with the Thurs-Fri system!!

 

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=kiag

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=kbuf

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=kroc

[tim123]

Ratios up to 25 to 1. I'd say average 18 to 1

[wolfie09]

Kbuf for Sunday..

 

OT looks like the Yankees just got Stanton 

[CNY-LES FREAK]

Kbuf for Sunday..

 

OT looks like the Yankees just got Stanton 

Looks like a nice little appetizer from these trained eyes

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[CNY-LES FREAK]

2-4 tomorrow, 6 to 10 Wednesday with the synoptic system, then the wrap around Lake enhancement Wednesday into Friday, another foot, week ending totals close to 18"! That's my story, and I'm sticking to it, lol!

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[rochesterdave]

2 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

3 day totals Euro

2 days later, lol, This at 120 5 days

GFS at 72hrs, day 3

Day 5, 120 hrs, GFS

Looks good to me.

 

I know your thoughts express concern for the KROC area but its an awesome pattern for even the South Shore, IMO.

your relying on the CMC, lol, yesterday it had it up over Ottawa, lol, so with one run, it dropped South to Lake Ontario, today's 12Z will be further South.  There's NO TREND either, as I cant even see where your getting this from? What meteorological explanation can you give me , as to why you think this is going North, other than the CMC, seriously Dave because you just throw thoughts out there with nothing to back it up, unless its a complete guess? 

Excellent points. I did offer links to two models, CMC and GFS. Euro is the same. I'm relying on past disco: "low passes just to the south", and my experience. The sweat spot for any low (and especially the south shore) is 100-250 miles north of the Low. 

The newer models all show the low going over Lake Ontario- not at all ideal. Sure, there will be some backside bull****, but man, this had/ has potential to drop two feet of it tracks right. As of now, sure 3-6" on the backside. Ok. 

And for future reference, yes, I make a lot of this up as I go. 

 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

35 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Kbuf for Sunday..

 

OT looks like the Yankees just got Stanton 

Not feeling this map or the Sunday event at all for BUF metro or even the southtowns for that matter.  Synoptic snowfall looks minimal and the lake bands don't look favorable placement wise from where they were yesterday.  Maybe a quick shot late overnight tonight into the morning for the southtowns but after that bands look to stay mainly south of the Boston hills.  NAM, RGEM, WRF, even the BTV shifted south... but does show a nice flare up after midnight tonight... not holding my breath...

 

[tim123]

How do lake parameters look for Kroc. 

[CNY-WXFREAK]

36 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Excellent points. I did offer links to two models, CMC and GFS. Euro is the same. I'm relying on past disco: "low passes just to the south", and my experience. The sweat spot for any low (and especially the south shore) is 100-250 miles north of the Low. 

The newer models all show the low going over Lake Ontario- not at all ideal. Sure, there will be some backside bull****, but man, this had/ has potential to drop two feet of it tracks right. As of now, sure 3-6" on the backside. Ok. 

And for future reference, yes, I make a lot of this up as I go. 

 

Thank You for your sincere candor, as its refreshing to hear, lol!

[CNY-WXFREAK]

12 minutes ago, tim123 said:

How do lake parameters look for Kroc. 

Absolutely horrific, lol, no snow for KROC till mid January!

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

14 minutes ago, tim123 said:

How do lake parameters look for Kroc. 

Water levels are still to high.  All that flooding this summer caused the lake to go into hibernation this winter.  This is from a highly reliable but not complete scientific source... 

[BuffaloWeather]

57 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Kbuf for Sunday..

 

OT looks like the Yankees just got Stanton 

Looks like a trade, hopefully it doesn't gut the entire team. But Judge and Stanton on the same team!!!! =)

Have been a Yankees fan since the early 90s when I opened a Topps pack of trading cards and got 2 Derek Jeter rookie cards, still have them stashed away in the attic. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Maybe an actual chance tomorrow for Bills game, the band usually goes farther north than predicted in early season events. The lake is still in the mid to upper 40s. 

In terms of placement of the bands...a fairly well aligned 280 flow
will initially direct the accumulating lake snows across the
Southern Tier and also on the south side of the Tug Hill plateau. As
a potent shortwave digs across Georgian Bay during the midday...
winds are forecast to back to about 260 on Lake Erie and possibly to
250 on Lake Ontario. This will lift the corresponding bands
northward through early afternoon. The moderately heavy band off
Lake Erie is expected to approach Buffalo...stalling in the vcnty of
the Southtowns before drifting back to the south during the mid and
late afternoon. Likewise...the band off Lake Ontario will move to
the north side of the Tug...although there is a possibility that it
could briefly make it to Watertown. While snowfall amounts are
currently forecast to range from 3 to 5 inches within these somewhat
mobile bands...higher amounts will be possible if they are less
transitory. Would not rule out some thunder in either of the
bands...but given the forecast heights of the -10c isotherm
(arnd 2.5k ft)...am not confident enough to include in the package.

[BuffaloWeather]

33 minutes ago, tim123 said:

How do lake parameters look for Kroc. 

They look decent for a Fluff bomb that you can blow away with the leaf blower. 1:30 Ratios  As the New England forum says, "Fake Snow" 

This is a good look for ROC. Good moisture, well aligned flow, great delta Ts. It doesn't last long though as the next system moves in behind it all those good LES conditions go away very quickly.

[tim123]

Could be good for up to a foot I'd think

[rochesterdave]

Getting excited for 12z runs. WxFreak has me wondering if there's room for Monday's Low to meander south. Across the twin tiers would be good enough. Strength shouldn't be an issue as all models show it strengthening. And if it bogs down just a bit over the dacks, look-out. 

Lots of ifs here. Tim, these guys are gonna hang us some day. 

[tim123]

Runs look odd. Has a low over Indian then jumps is to lake Huron. Not sold on anything just yet. Either way good lake snow event looks to be on the way try Wednesday 

[ayuud11]

RGEM showing some love for Tomorrows LES event.

 

[lakeeffectkid383]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Maybe an actual chance tomorrow for Bills game, the band usually goes farther north than predicted in early season events. The lake is still in the mid to upper 40s. 

In terms of placement of the bands...a fairly well aligned 280 flow
will initially direct the accumulating lake snows across the
Southern Tier and also on the south side of the Tug Hill plateau. As
a potent shortwave digs across Georgian Bay during the midday...
winds are forecast to back to about 260 on Lake Erie and possibly to
250 on Lake Ontario. This will lift the corresponding bands
northward through early afternoon. The moderately heavy band off
Lake Erie is expected to approach Buffalo...stalling in the vcnty of
the Southtowns before drifting back to the south during the mid and
late afternoon. Likewise...the band off Lake Ontario will move to
the north side of the Tug...although there is a possibility that it
could briefly make it to Watertown. While snowfall amounts are
currently forecast to range from 3 to 5 inches within these somewhat
mobile bands...higher amounts will be possible if they are less
transitory. Would not rule out some thunder in either of the
bands...but given the forecast heights of the -10c isotherm
(arnd 2.5k ft)...am not confident enough to include in the package.

That map is so overdone south of Buffalo. They are way too broad brushed with their maps. I am not going to see 6-8” from this and neither is the city of Buffalo itself.... I’ll be lucky to see a couple flakes from the lake effect as it looks to initially set up over Hanburg and Orchard Park and then quickly shift south to the Boston Hills then even further south... this pattern has been absolutely horrific for us in Buffalo, Lackawanna, West Seneca, Lancaster... to our north and south several inches (in some cases well over a foot and a half of snow) while we have totally green grass, and this lake effect event looks no different. Then if we’re lucky we might catch a couple inches of 25:1 fluff from that synoptic storm that will go poof as soon as the sun hits it even at 20 degrees... give me sunny and 60 if it’s gonna be like this crap.