DeltaT13 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said: Haha we think alike for sure. South Buffalo and West Seneca got absolutely shafted. We have a whopping 3 day total of 1.4”... I'm yet to accumulate more than .05" of snow, so KROC has still only recorded a trace of snow from the last 3 days. Pretty sad. Also, since I began accurately tracking snow this season I'm somewhat perplexed by how the airport makes its measurement. They recorded .4" on the 6th and that is just plain false. What method to they use? Does anyone know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 That clipper/Miller b system has trended stronger on the latest guidance for Monday/Tuesday. Some potential for a decent event there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Syracuse had a few inches of snow back on 11/20-21 so Houston, New Orleans and the gulf coast states didn't beat us to the first accumulating snow but looking pretty green and brown here. Not looking optimistic for any deep general snowcover any time soon but the parade of clippers and other low moisture systems progged to roll thru in the next 7-10 days ought to gradually make it look more wintry in CNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 33 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: That clipper/Miller b system has trended stronger on the latest guidance for Monday/Tuesday. Some potential for a decent event there. It has looked better with every run and should treat the South Ontario shore well with a relatively prolonged period of moist northerly and NW winds as the low matures and slows down over Eastern Canada. Cautiously optimistic that we get our first substantial event with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2017 Author Share Posted December 8, 2017 Main and Harlem in Amherst has 5” on the ground, quite surprised how much they have here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 3 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: I'm yet to accumulate more than .05" of snow, so KROC has still only recorded a trace of snow from the last 3 days. Pretty sad. Also, since I began accurately tracking snow this season I'm somewhat perplexed by how the airport makes its measurement. They recorded .4" on the 6th and that is just plain false. What method to they use? Does anyone know? I had a 4" event about that time in Irondequoit. It's very variable, as you know. My folks in Pittsford, haven't had anything yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Buf Disco looks good: A consolidating sfc low will track near or just south of our forecast area Monday night and Tuesday. This will place our forecast area on the northern side of the deepening storm system where frontogentic forcing will be the strongest. There may be some fairly strong jet induced lift involved as well...as our region will be near the exit region of a 130kt H25 jet. This should result in a general accumulating snowfall across our region...one that could worthy of winter weather advisories or even warnings. Stay tuned. - this type of event always overperforms along the thruway, from Buf-Syr, especially the greater Roc region. But we like that low to stay south of the ny/pa border. If it cuts our region or heads north, it's a totally different story, with upslope areas being favored (Buf ski country). Ill be watching this one. I think of them as I-80 Rollers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Well now that the sun is out think I'll go cut my grass... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Sunday, steering level winds will back to west or west-southwesterly with accumulating lake snows lifting north along the east of both lakes. Lake induced equilibrium levels of over 10kft along with sufficient synoptic scale moisture will support well organized single bands of lake snow. Several additional inches of snow could accumulate east of the lakes. Wind may even back enough ahead of another approaching shortwave trough to allow for the northern edges of the lake bands to reach the Buffalo and Watertown metroareas. Warning threshold snowfall totals could certainly be possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 This is a pretty wild, you can see huge flocks of birds on the radar leaving the waste management dump site near the corner of 490 and 90, as they head north towards lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Sunday, steering level winds will back to west or west-southwesterly with accumulating lake snows lifting north along the east of both lakes. Lake induced equilibrium levels of over 10kft along with sufficient synoptic scale moisture will support well organized single bands of lake snow. Several additional inches of snow could accumulate east of the lakes. Wind may even back enough ahead of another approaching shortwave trough to allow for the northern edges of the lake bands to reach the Buffalo and Watertown metroareas. Warning threshold snowfall totals could certainly be possible Rooting for an intense band to sit over Orchard Park on Sunday between 1 and 4pm. It’s not like it would hurt our passing game... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2017 Author Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Well now that the sun is out think I'll go cut my grass... Pretty crazy that it skipped over you and dropped 5-6" in Amherst. Don't think I've seen that in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Next 7 - 10 days looks fabulous for both CWA's. Both offices should experience the first significant event of this early season with heavy LE and enhancement South and SE of both Lakes Erie and Ontario. Chock full of snow chances throughout the period, with brutally cold temps. Wind chills approaching -teens to -20's at times, suffice to say this time next week, the whole board should have had their first significant snowfall. The fun begins with the first insignificant round of weak LE, SE of Lake Ontario come tomorrow night into Sunday afternoon. I'll take one at a time, thanks, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 34 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Rooting for an intense band to sit over Orchard Park on Sunday between 1 and 4pm. It’s not like it would hurt our passing game... That would be awesome to see. Weird it was there for several straight runs and now all of a sudden the 18NAM just drops the LES Sunday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: That would be awesome to see. Weird it was there for several straight runs and now all of a sudden the 18NAM just drops the LES Sunday... Horrible model, and I don't care if it nailed this last event, as even a broken clock is right twice a day, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Its been a while since I've seen the globals in such remarkable agreement on the next few events as each is in lock step of each other except for the CMC. It's timing and placement has a little catching up as it runs the Clipper to our North, so if it does go to our North, the Canadian nailed it, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 8 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Horrible model, and I don't care if it nailed this last event, as even a broken clock is right twice a day, lol! Can always go with the trusty BTV... 4pm Sunday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Can always go with the trusty BTV... 4pm Sunday... I love the pattern we're headed into and I'd love to see a band smash the CIty and southtowns and you know its only a matter of time before you get smacked, you know it, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2017 Author Share Posted December 8, 2017 26 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Can always go with the trusty BTV... 4pm Sunday... In house channel 4 model has it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 New afd from buffalo highlighting Rochester for heavy lake effect and lake enhancement Tuesday and Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 hour ago, tim123 said: New afd from buffalo highlighting Rochester for heavy lake effect and lake enhancement Tuesday and Wednesday 2 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Next 7 - 10 days looks fabulous for both CWA's. Both offices should experience the first significant event of this early season with heavy LE and enhancement South and SE of both Lakes Erie and Ontario. Chock full of snow chances throughout the period, with brutally cold temps. Wind chills approaching -teens to -20's at times, suffice to say this time next week, the whole board should have had their first significant snowfall. The fun begins with the first insignificant round of weak LE, SE of Lake Ontario come tomorrow night into Sunday afternoon. I'll take one at a time, thanks, lol! Damm dude check out that 18z GFS bufkit data, that's some impressive LES parameters showing up on Tues-Wed timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 yeah someone next week gets pounded for sure, maybe KROC maybe KSYR, but someone definitely is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Maybe both cities. It happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 What does bufkit show. Cap invertion? Moisture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 As for our Tuesday storm, if it ends up being any further North, neither Syracuse or Rochester. Plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Hopefully this goes right along the twin tiers. Would be ideal for roc. These west to east systems that strengthen tend to smack roc with good storm snow then lake snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Yea that’s my concern, Euro brings surface temps to near 40 for parts of cny with the surface low passing just east of ksyr.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Same thing as you can see in nw Indiana with same track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 44 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: As for our Tuesday storm, if it ends up being any further North, neither Syracuse or Rochester. Plenty of time. Bro this ends up cutting across Central PA and could be as far South as the Delmarva. Its definitely not cutting across the Central Great lakes like the Goofus has it doing. Its going to be either to the North of the Lakes, or to the South, and I'm going with South, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 The Gfs and euro are fairly similar.. Otherwise we will be looking at a clipper system dropping across the upper Midwest. The operational GFS and ECMWF models are in better agreement with the 12z runs. Warm advection and overrunning ahead of this approaching storm system will likely spread some light snow over our region by late in the day on Monday where likely POPs remain for the western Southern Tier. Monday night, the models are a near lock step shifting the center of the clipper into western NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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