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..A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT WESTERN WYOMING...NORTHERN
CATTARAUGUS...SOUTHERN ERIE AND NORTHEASTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES...

At 100 PM EST, a band of lake effect snow producing snow fall rates
of 2 inches per hour extended along the Lake Erie shoreline from
Blasdell to Fredonia and inland to the Boston Hills. This band of
heavy lake effect snow will remain stationary or drift gradually
south through mid-afternoon. After this, the band will move south of
Silver Creek late this afternoon and early this evening. Expect
heavy lake effect snow in this band, with thundersnow possible this
afternoon. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road
conditions and visibilities.
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Wow, the 12z Euro is absolutely horrific for all of CNY, excluding the snow belts.  Just cold cold and more cold but it'll change as last nights 00Z was the complete opposite, lol. The models are having quite a bit of difficulty with the injection of all this cold air because the swings, once past day 3, are drastic! Going from a forecasted 2-2.5" of Liq Eqv, and today's 12Z its 0.4".

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Picked up 11.6" today and .5" yesterday. Total of 12.1" so far. Snow depth is 9.8". Think we pick up another 3-6" when the band swings north.

This band had very low ratios, it's extremely sloppy and heavy to shovel, Going to last awhile with no warmup coming up.

Totals so far:

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                     SNOWFALL           OF
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

NEW YORK

...Chautauqua County...
   Silver Creek          12.0   229 PM 12/07  Social Media

...Erie County...
   Marilla               13.5   220 PM 12/07  Snow Spotter
   ENE East Aurora        8.3   245 PM 12/07  NWS Employee
   1 W Lake View          8.0   235 PM 12/07  CoCoRaHS

...Lewis County...
   Harrisville            7.0  1201 PM 12/07  Social Media
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Looks like the band is getting sheared up and pushing back north already.  Really hoping for some surprise bonus snow tomorrow morning but my expectations are pretty low.  Thinking it sets back up over Eden/Hamburg/EA overnight drops another 6-8" then quickly flies up through the metro for morning rush but only drops an inch.  At this point if I could grab 2-3" I would be happy.  

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20 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Looks like the band is getting sheared up and pushing back north already.  Really hoping for some surprise bonus snow tomorrow morning but my expectations are pretty low.  Thinking it sets back up over Eden/Hamburg/EA overnight drops another 6-8" then quickly flies up through the metro for morning rush but only drops an inch.  At this point if I could grab 2-3" I would be happy.  

Yeah, that thing looks to be moving north a bit earlier than expected. 

This is a good radar to see upstream trends.

https://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=WSO

cad_None_anim.gif

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Well the gnashing of the teeth begin with most , if not all all globals. going to a brief ridge by day 16, just in time for the Holidays, lol! Before that , there are some nice chances of a few synoptic events, with a couple brief LE events, so all in all, it doesn't look like the Armageddon Cold that JB has been touting.

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Mesoscale Discussion 1785
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0138 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2017

   Areas affected...TX Coastal Plain

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 080738Z - 081045Z

   SUMMARY...Isolated pockets of moderate snowfall (i.e. rates briefly
   approaching 1" per hour) possible during the next 2 to 3 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Current observations reveal wet-bulb effects have
   reduced temperatures from around 34-36 degrees F to closer to
   freezing across much of the region. This reduction in temperatures
   has resulted in a change-over from light rain to light/moderate snow
   across the region, evidenced by recent surface observations
   reporting snow from CRP northeastward as far north as BMT.
   Frontogenetic forcing responsible for these bands of snow will
   persist, while gradually weakening, for the next several hours as it
   slowly shifts eastward in response to the progression of the
   mid-level trough. As such, potential for light to moderate snow is
   expected to continue across the region for the next 2 to 3 hours.

 

Absolutely hilarious, seriously, as some things you just cant make up.  Coastal Texas including Houston and Galveston, yes Galveston, with snows approaching an 1"/hr, for down there is gonna be treacherous!

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I really like the look of the next 6 days as all three globals are on board for 2 solid snow events with LE on the backside of both events as well, so for a 6 day total, all three look very similar as the first event is a Coastal, but I don't think it's a KU storm system yet, but there is room for this to come further West with the high Latitude blocking we have in place!

CMC

cmc_total_precip_east_25.thumb.png.448a14fdc71e8f12a51c611a5945a8d3.png

GFS

gfs_tprecip_3h_neng_49.thumb.png.c18f2b06a1aaca25f5bd4c654a8702d4.png

EURO

ecmwf_tprecip_3h_conus2_49.thumb.png.0f5a85ec7832db808fea6ed1ccacb806.png

 

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Now we wait for the models to fine tune these two systems as we move forward in time, but the first event looks like a definite Warning event for the Coastal Plain, up through New England then a Clipper that has the potential to really blow up out over the GOM, so a lot to watch the next week. I'll take this season, one week at a time, no 16 day stuff as I don't even want to know the long range cause it to me, is a guess past day 3-4.

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3 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Nice waking up this morning to heavy snow!  About 3 inches OTG. Still moderate snow but band looks to be shifting north of me soon. 

Must be nice, band lasted all of 25 minutes here as it relaxed north and dropped 0.6”. We’ve really been in the screw zone since this whole event started. Wednesday everything was to our north over Amherst and Williamsville and we got 0.7”. Yesterday we only got 0.1” as Hamburg and Orchard Park just 5 miles to my south saw well over a foot of snow, and as I stated this morning we picked up 0.6” while the northtowns get a quick 2-4”. Can still see grass sticking through the snow everywhere. 

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Just now, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

And another dud this morning... just depressing... 1/2" from the last pass brings me to a whopping 3 day total of 0.7".  Not even enough to cover the grass...

 

IMG_4132.PNG

Haha we think alike for sure. South Buffalo and West Seneca got absolutely shafted. We have a whopping 3 day total of 1.4”...

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11 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Funny enough our next chance at some good snow looks to be Sunday.  Every model is showing it and the NAM try's to put a good band just south of the city around 4pm Sunday.  Just in time for the end of the Bills game.    NWS doesn't seem excited about it but maybe this will be our over achiever... 

IMG_4134.PNG

The nam has been the best model. It’s underrated for lake effect.

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

College station got 6” of snow, San Antonio and Houston saw accumulating snow too. Crazy! 

Yeah, I was actually up watching it as well.  A few posts back I posted a mesoscale discussion, if ys wanna go back and read it, as it was very interesting.  I love the weather, whether its in my BY or on TX its all the same!

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