tim123 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Hope you guys in buffalo get some snow. Rooting for ya. These situations with slow moving band to the north can surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 35 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I blame some of this "forecast bust" on the Cuomo debacle from 2014. The NWS wants to ensure that they are never seen as underestimating an event (even though they didnt that time) when it could have a significant impact. This raises the most critical question. Why do people care when a forecast busts in a generally positive direction (IE: Forecast a lot, get a little)? Its the classic scenario of erring on the side of caution. If they bust the other way its truly dangerous and could cause major issues. Busting high is just a relief for the general pop. One argument might be that schools or roads close preemptively and then nothing happens. Well so what, at least no one was caught off guard and nothing unfortunate happens. Furthermore, forecast busts of this magnitude are quite rare so it's not like this is a chronic issue and costing large sums of money. It's frustrating. -end rant- You are probably right about that in some sense. To the extent that pols like Cuomo and our overly litigious society influence any particular forecast with their past histrionics...hard to judge without being on the inside of NWSFO decision making. I suppose it does make sense to over-forecast for the reasons you mentioned...but then there's the Chicken Little effect over time. As an engineer, I'm more wired to "get it right" than play to the optics but we all have our own professional politics to consider, however ridiculous and juvenile they can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said: 0-1" in the city proper. The northeastern suburbs caught a couple inches. We went up to the village of Williamsburg for a work holiday party - about two inches there, but more noticeable because the grass was fully covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I just don't understand why BUF put those maps out so early. They were using 0z Monday data where the hi res was just starting to pick it up. Where they just using analogs and going with their gut feeling? The local tv mets all waited till 5/6 news that night to put out maps and had 18 hours of hi res data. They still overshot but look to verify much closer. I would be fine if official sources waited until 36 hours out to issue detailed accumulation amounts. I feel this would ease the pressure to rush a forecast and wait to issue one when it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Looking at gfs system for mid next week coming in stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 12 minutes ago, tim123 said: Looking at gfs system for mid next week coming in stronger. Im wondering if the NWS Buffalo will issue a LES watch fir northern erie for late Thursday friday morning, seem to be within the high res models wheel house and as Don Paul stated looks to be intense, even a band that sits for 2 to 3 hours on a SW wind can dump 1/2 foot in that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Im wondering if the NWS Buffalo will issue a LES watch fir northern erie for late Thursday friday morning, seem to be within the high res models wheel house and as Don Paul stated looks to be intense, even a band that sits for 2 to 3 hours on a SW wind can dump 1/2 foot in that time. NO WAY! Maybe another advisory depending how it continues to verify overnight but I can't see N Erie getting over 6" by Friday night even with two more band passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 53 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: I just don't understand why BUF put those maps out so early. They were using 0z Monday data where the hi res was just starting to pick it up. Where they just using analogs and going with their gut feeling? The local tv mets all waited till 5/6 news that night to put out maps and had 18 hours of hi res data. They still overshot but look to verify much closer. I would be fine if official sources waited until 36 hours out to issue detailed accumulation amounts. I feel this would ease the pressure to rush a forecast and wait to issue one when it's right. I got excited when all the models showed it in addition to the top 5 CIPS analogs all being large events 3 days out. Still have some hope for tomorrow, but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Thank god you people out west are dealing with this and not the Lake Ontario crowd here in CNY. I feel you all got the Bernie Madoff experience with this one. Although in the end, like Bernie's investors, you may ultimately recover a fair chunk of what was "lost." We had our first event back before Turkey day and it more or less delivered the goods, though maybe a few fries short on the happy meal in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 50 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: NO WAY! Maybe another advisory depending how it continues to verify overnight but I can't see N Erie getting over 6" by Friday night even with two more band passes. There was a LES band last year that dropped over 6 inches of snow in less than an hour so anything possible buddy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I’m gonna go absolutely ballistic if this band sits 2 miles to my south all day after how yesterday went. So frustrating! I need to buy a house on a 1800’ Ridge in Perrysburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said: I’m gonna go absolutely ballistic if this band sits 2 miles to my south all day after how yesterday went. So frustrating! I need to buy a house on a 1800’ Ridge in Perrysburg. I dunno dude looks like that's as far as it's going to go. Maybe another small nudge with that recent flare up but overall that band just looks terrible. Super skinny still really not a solid band. Thruway cams still showing green grass all the way down and just some light snow falling Eden to Dunkirk. But most models show it peaking later today and then moving through our area tomorrow so just have to wait yet another day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I sure hope its snowing somewhere because the radar is lit up all around me but its not even flurrying, lol, quite comical actually! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 The band looks better than I thought it would; but as mentioned above, I was under decent returns for awhile this morning with barely a flurry, so that was kind of odd. Anyway, it's always nice to have some of these images archived (I sometimes look back at these old threads) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I sure hope its snowing somewhere because the radar is lit up all around me but its not even flurrying, lol, quite comical actually! I’m down in Southern tier and I’m catching just some light snow showers from that Erie band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Andy Parker out in Hamburg with the Mobil Westher Lab. Snowing really good Camp Road in Hamburg. Roads like really slick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Looks like Hamburg to EA will be in on the action now! Good luck! Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Buffalo NY 946 AM EST THU DEC 7 2017 NYZ010-012-019-020-085-071615- Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-Wyoming-Northern Erie- 946 AM EST THU DEC 7 2017 ...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT WYOMING...NORTHWESTERN CATTARAUGUS...SOUTHERN ERIE AND NORTHEASTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES... At 940 AM EST, a band of lake effect snow producing snow fall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour has developed off Lake Erie. This band is most intense along the lakeshore between Fredonia and Hamburg, extending inland to the Boston Hills. This lake effect snow band is expected to remain nearly stationary through mid-afternoon. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities. Locations impacted include... Dunkirk, Fredonia, Hamburg, East Aurora, Evans, Boston, Eden, Springville, Warsaw and Bennington. This includes Interstate 90 between exits 59 and 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: I dunno dude looks like that's as far as it's going to go. Maybe another small nudge with that recent flare up but overall that band just looks terrible. Super skinny still really not a solid band. Thruway cams still showing green grass all the way down and just some light snow falling Eden to Dunkirk. But most models show it peaking later today and then moving through our area tomorrow so just have to wait yet another day... Absolutely ripping about 1.5” or so an hour in Orchard Park with a couple inches on the ground with just a flurry back home in West Seneca with green grass on my Nest Cam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Absolutely ripping about 1.5” or so an hour in Orchard Park with a couple inches on the ground with just a flurry back home in West Seneca with green grass on my Nest Cam. Crazy how quick that band organized this morning. Went from flurries to roaring in an hour. Getting oh so close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Now that's cruel, but I've been there drain a half miles to my North is Fulton and it hurts!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 Getting pounded in Hamburg 6" I said last night the distant southtowns would have a shot today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Finally snowing here. Intensity has picked up and flake size is good and I'm starting to get a coating on the grass and my deck. Temperature has fallen to 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 2" per hour right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 If that bands stays stationary all afternoon and it moves north tomorrow, we actually might hit those totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 From 30 mins ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 From 30 mins ago.Nice! Flurries is all we'll see until, Monday Tuesday but I can wait!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Nice! Flurries is all we'll see until, Monday Tuesday but I can wait! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Thanks! The puppy loves the snow just as much as me. He had a blast jumping in all the piles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 Nothing in South Buffalo at work, 1-2" in blasdell. Close to a foot in Hamburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Nothing in South Buffalo at work, 1-2" in blasdell. Close to a foot in Hamburg. Green grass in West Seneca, this is by far and large the most heartbreaking/antagonizing 2 day weather event of my entire life. Was forecast 2-3 feet here 3 days ago, landed up with 0.7" then rain. Now today the lake effect looks great and it's literally 2 miles away. I was in Orchard Park an hour ago which is 4.7 miles away and they have close to a foot while I stare at green grass and breaks of sunshine. Congrats to those though that are getting the snow, happy for you guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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