Upstate/Eastern New York

[BuffaloWeather]

As we get into December and a pattern change I figured it was a good time to start a new thread. Cold looks to be a certainty for almost the entire month of December as all model guidance suggest this. We will have many weak low pressure systems riding along the elongated through axis with meandering wind directions. Dry air and shear is definitely something we need to keep an eye on. There is definitely a synoptic threat with this pattern, although the northern jet looks to be the dominate force the next few weeks. It looks to be a very wintry month ahead starting on Weds night 12/6. Hopefully we all cash in, it is going to be a fun few weeks of tracking! 

CPC has hazard for heavy LES for 9th-11th

From the Buf NWS:

Accumulating lake effect snow looks to be a near certainty in the
Wednesday night through Thursday night time frame. Details on
locations and amounts will become clearer in the coming days.

Fair amount of model discrepancy develops by Friday. GFS suggests
a deep low into the central Great Lakes, while the ECMWF pushes
a weak trough through the Great Lakes. In either scenario, the
potential for continued snow looks reasonable but lake effect
potential may become more disrupted. Confidence in how this all
plays out is low at this stage of the forecast.

Looking farther ahead, the major pattern change ushered in by the
early-to-midweek system will mature by the end of next week, and
then last at least into mid December, and possibly beyond. Long
range ensemble and deterministic guidance remains in excellent
agreement on this pattern change, and has only grown stronger with
forecast blocking over the past few days. The anomalously strong and
eastward extending East Asian Jet is in the process of weakening,
and this will allow for a strong amplification of the Pacific wave
train. This will force the downstream pattern across North America
to strongly amplify, with a strengthening ridge along the west coast
forcing the downstream development of a deep longwave trough over
central and eastern North America. At the same time, blocking over
Greenland will strengthen.

The increasing high latitude blocking will project on an
increasingly strong negative AO (Arctic Oscillation), with the
Greenland Block also strengthening with time. Meanwhile, the western
ridge/eastern trough and amplification farther west in the Pacific
will force an increasingly positive PNA (Pacific North American)
pattern.

The coupling of a negative NAO and positive PNA pattern will result
in an extended period of below normal temperatures and active winter
weather for the Great Lakes starting late next week, and lasting for
an extended period of time. The first few days of the pattern change
late next week will be routine cold, but after about December 10th-
12th there are increasing signals in long range ensemble guidance
that several blasts of true arctic air may be in play for the Great
Lakes and Northeast. Obviously details are impossible to predict at
this time range, but the large scale pattern suggests the
possibility of numerous high impact lake effect snow events during
the 8-14 day period taking us into mid December.

Euro Snowfall:

GFS:

GEM:

 

[Thinksnow18]

Thought this was nice to wake up to coirtesy of the NWS Buffalo: My favorite part is the end of the 2nd paragraph.

[rochesterdave]

Get ready Buf. This one could be big! 

[BuffaloWeather]

3 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Thought this was nice to wake up to coirtesy of the NWS Buffalo: My favorite part is the end of the 2nd paragraph.

Yeah It's in reference to this. Here are the top 15 analogs with 72 hour snowfall totals.

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&rundt=2017120200&map=thbCOOP72

The top 5 event matches are:

11/14/1992: 

12/25/2001: 

11/18/2014:

11/17/1989:

01/04/1999:

Not sure how to find what buffalo got for those specific days though. I know 12/25/01 is a big one. 

[Thinksnow18]

57 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah It's in reference to this. Here are the top 15 analogs with 72 hour snowfall totals.

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&rundt=2017120200&map=thbCOOP72

The top 5 event matches are:

11/14/1992: 

12/25/2001: 

11/18/2014:

11/17/1989:

01/04/1999:

Not sure how to find what buffalo got for those specific days though. I know 12/25/01 is a big one. 

Im shocked '85 isnt at the top of that list...I believe over a 4 day period the airport and pojnts north to tonawanda had almost 5 feet of snow. It was in January though.

[Thinksnow18]

Here is a blurb from the buffalo news regarding the december 2001 event near Christmas:

 

 

[OSUmetstud]

2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah It's in reference to this. Here are the top 15 analogs with 72 hour snowfall totals.

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&rundt=2017120200&map=thbCOOP72

The top 5 event matches are:

11/14/1992: 

12/25/2001: 

11/18/2014:

11/17/1989:

01/04/1999:

Not sure how to find what buffalo got for those specific days though. I know 12/25/01 is a big one. 

They took the old climo f6 data off the website.  They used to have the dailies back to the 40s. Really annoying. Obviously 11/18/14 was part of snowvember.  

Jan 4 1999 has a daily record of 12.4".  I want to say that was 20" event.  I'm remember driving down to shoellkopf scout camp as a kid.  The 1989 and 1992 aren't daily records so I'm not sure what happened. 

[OSUmetstud]

Ahh here it is.  I didn't realize the lake effect page archives went back so far.  It wasn't the same event I was thinking of but regardless a nice event 

[CNY-WXFREAK]

Man that's cold!!

[BuffaloWeather]

The pattern coming up reminds me of Dec/Jan 98-99 season. Let's hope we see a repeat. 

http://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=1998-1999&event=C

http://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=1998-1999&event=D

http://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=1998-1999&event=E

http://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=1998-1999&event=F

http://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=1998-1999&event=G

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Hot off the press.

...Potentially significant lake effect snow event Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday...

Thinking from continuity remains pretty much unchanged. Much colder
air arriving behind the Tuesday system will support the development
of lake effect snow. This could happen as early as Wednesday
morning, but almost certainly by Wednesday afternoon as cold air
continues to deepen and better moisture arrives. Model soundings
during the late Wednesday through Thursday night time frame
showing the most favorable over-lake instability with lake
induced cape of 500+ J/kg and inversion heights over 10kft. Snow
may fall heavy at times with forecast soundings also showing
ample lift through the dendritic growth zone. Combined with
blowing snow, hazardous travel conditions will likely develop
during this time.

Steering winds are a bit harder to pinpoint at this stage of the
forecast, but it appears that a west to southwest flow will likely
be the more dominant direction, with a suggestion of a brief period
of northwest flow. Although it remains too soon to pinpoint amounts
or the areas of highest impact, those residing in the typical
snowbelts east of Lakes Erie and Ontario, including Buffalo and
Watertown, will want to pay particularly close attention to the
forecast over the next few days as the details become more
clear.

The approach of a shortwave Friday will likely disrupt the ongoing
lake effect snow within increasing shear profiles. Whether or
not the lake snows completely fall apart is more uncertain, but
there will certainly be enough cold air in place to at least
keep some general snow or weaker lake effect snow going through
Friday.

Once this shortwave clears, another surge of arctic air looks
to arrive across the lower Great Lakes. This will likely renew
the lake effect snow. with the potential for the start of
another significant lake effect snow event as we head into the
upcoming weekend.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

That GFS run though. 2 weak synoptic systems and 4-5 LES events. Back on the hype train. 

[Syrmax]

Looks like cold and relatively dry for most of us in CNY after the pattern change midweek.  We will undoubtedly get a round or two of snow to whiten the ground for a bit.  ski areas in CNY should be able to make snow at least.

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, Syrmax said:

Looks like cold and relatively dry for most of us in CNY after the pattern change midweek.  We will undoubtedly get a round or two of snow to whiten the ground for a bit.  ski areas in CNY should be able to make snow at least.

Winds go northwest quite a bit. You’ll get les as well.

[Syrmax]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Winds go northwest quite a bit. You’ll get les as well.

Agree, probably a few transient events.  It's inevitable with the upcoming pattern.  I tend to ignore LES prospects in the longer range other than yeah, we may get some for a few hours.

[CNY-WXFREAK]

1 minute ago, Syrmax said:

Agree, probably a few transient events.  It's inevitable with the upcoming pattern.  I tend to ignore LES prospects in the longer range other than yeah, we may get some for a few hours.

Been here too many times so I won't even speculate but this is gonna be primarilly a WSW-SW event from Wed evening through Thursday then a weak SW swings through with a switch to WNW-NW for a few hrs then it heads back North till another front brings, or sweeps it South through the area, wash rinse repeat, lol!

[vortmax]

52 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Been here too many times so I won't even speculate but this is gonna be primarilly a WSW-SW event from Wed evening through Thursday then a weak SW swings through with a switch to WNW-NW for a few hrs then it heads back North till another front brings, or sweeps it South through the area, wash rinse repeat, lol!

If the Ontario band can hold together during the NW veering, then someone in our parts can get a pretty nice amount where it stalls and before it backs. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Looks like 1st event starts Weds night. Think LES Watches go up tomorrow afternoon or Monday morning. 

[tim123]

Looks like a good pattern for all that live near lakes as there are many chances for all 

[BuffaloWeather]

What a beautiful loop.

[MillvilleWx]

The pattern setting up for the Lakes will be one to produce a plethora of snow chances, whether it be from passing clippers or LES that everyone here should enjoy the run. Given the positioning of the PV over the Lakes, my guess is areas due west off the Lakes will see some prolific totals, especially over the Tug where amounts will likely push 2-4' by mid-December, and we will not even be close to done. This setup has staying power. Relaxation potential mid-month, but you have to love the look of the PAC in the long term. Euro pushing some serious cold into the NE US at the end of its OP run and it's really cold for the end of the EPS. The theme will be persistent westerly flow off the Lakes with numerous shortwaves rotating around the backside of the trough and across the NE and Mid-Atlantic. Given the setup, I'd say odds of White Christmas (Snow on ground) for everyone in here is above 75% with 100% over the Tug and Ski Country off Erie. Quite the setup y'all.

[CNY-LES FREAK]

Looks like 1st event starts Weds night. Think LES Watches go up tomorrow afternoon or Monday morning. 

You mean WSW, no more LES watches. However, their still using the LES warnings though, so it makes no sense to me!

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

[lakeeffectkid383]

6 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

You mean WSW, no more LES watches. However, their still using the LES warnings though, so it makes no sense to me!

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

That really is silly. They say their trying to streamline and simplify things but then they get rid of lake snow watches for just a winter storm watch so now most the general public doesn't know it's going to be a lake effect event...

[ayuud11]

I'd says areas just south of the airport and out towards S.Buffalo look to be on the sweet spot for Wed-Thurs timeframe, winds fluctuate between 250-255 on that latest Goofus run..

[lakeeffectkid383]

1 minute ago, ayuud11 said:

I'd says areas just south of the airport and out towards S.Buffalo look to be on the sweet spot for Wed-Thurs timeframe, winds fluctuate between 250-255 on that latest Goofus run..

That makes me feel warm and Fuzzy here in West Seneca lol. Hope your right. Honestly I'd be happy with just a warning event. Anything on top of that is just Gravy. 06z Nam shows the band setting up right where you said maybe a tad south, but I feel like all early season lake effect events always end up a bit further north than modeled. 

[Thinksnow18]

1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said:

That makes me feel warm and Fuzzy here in West Seneca lol. Hope your right. Honestly I'd be happy with just a warning event. Anything on top of that is just Gravy. 06z Nam shows the band setting up right where you said maybe a tad south, but I feel like all early season lake effect events always end up a bit further north than modeled. 

Agreed, especially with the lakes warmth it can have a curvature effect to the band...Williamsville might not get in on the first round but there should be opportunities after next weekend. 

[ayuud11]

1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Agreed, especially with the lakes warmth it can have a curvature effect to the band...Williamsville might not get in on the first round but there should be opportunities after next weekend. 

 

2 hours ago, WesterlyWx said:

That makes me feel warm and Fuzzy here in West Seneca lol. Hope your right. Honestly I'd be happy with just a warning event. Anything on top of that is just Gravy. 06z Nam shows the band setting up right where you said maybe a tad south, but I feel like all early season lake effect events always end up a bit further north than modeled. 

Actually areas north of the 190 might get into it with the first round as winds veer more towards SSW late Thursday into Friday with the approaching shortwave to our north whether the LES band holds up as it moves northward will be another thing lol..

[tim123]

Roc looks to get some Erie love. It happens usually coulple time a season. Few inches anyway

[BuffaloWeather]

4 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Agreed, especially with the lakes warmth it can have a curvature effect to the band...Williamsville might not get in on the first round but there should be opportunities after next weekend. 

We're going to need it, latest GFS wind profiles suggest a more westerly component to the winds for both events. This is a clip from the Nov 2014 event, but applies to most early season events.

THERMALLY-ENHANCED LOW LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DUE TO THE

COMBINED /I.E. LAKE AGGREGATE/ DIABATIC WARMING EFFECTS OF THE

LAKES. 

[BuffaloWeather]

2 feet totals on the GEM, GFS is similar but about 40 miles more south.