BxEngine Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I am not trying to cause an argument but how is this close? You're never going to get a system to come far enough West with a trough axis like this. This is the type of setup where Southern NJ, Eastern LI and the Cape can catch a few inches. For something more meaningful, major changes need to occur. Not so subtle reminder: Eastern long island is in this subforum, and the model discussion doesnt have to be only about "meaningful" events. If the models continue to show a light snow event for parts of our area, it should be discussed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Yes This has happened in the past along arctic fronts where the models don't catch on until a day before the storm. H5 is a disaster. That shortwave dropping down from the lakes is acting as a kicker because the wave spacing isn't large enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, BxEngine said: Not so subtle reminder: Eastern long island is in this subforum, and the model discussion doesnt have to be only about "meaningful" events. If the models continue to show a light snow event for parts of our area, it should be discussed. I believe my post acknowledged that Eastern LI could see a few inches. I clearly stated "more" meaningful meaning affecting a larger area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 This is an I95 on East event . So the list of models that show 2 inches of snow on the coastal plain are GEFS EPS JMA UKMET CMC SREF NAM I guess you guys can cling to the GFS operational for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 At 42 hours the 12Z RGEM is way more northwest down in the Gulf than the 06Z run was at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2017 Author Share Posted December 6, 2017 19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Not sure if anyone has already posted this but the 06z RGEM was pretty far West and cold for the Friday night into Saturday potential event. 12z is running as we speak. In any event, we have two main things working against us, the first being a positively tilted trough and the second being that the energy involved in forcing the surface low is actually weakening by the time it reaches us. This far out Wouldntt this just be the GGEM... doesn’t he RGEM just turn into the GGEM after 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: This far out Wouldntt this just be the GGEM... doesn’t he RGEM just turn into the GGEM after 48 hrs I could be wrong but I believe that the RGEM now runs to 84 hours on certain cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: At 42 hours the 12Z RGEM is way more northwest down in the Gulf than the 06Z run was at 48 Wave 2 is what comes N just look at the jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: At 42 hours the 12Z RGEM is way more northwest down in the Gulf than the 06Z run was at 48 Yeah but look how positively tilted the trough axis is. https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 And if you were to extrapolate out past 84hr on the NAM, that would likely be a nice event for the NJ coast on NE. The offshore low would strengthen and keep throwing moisture back. Not saying it’s correct or should be weighted heavily, but this can still be a nice snow event for many of us with some not farfetched changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2017 Author Share Posted December 6, 2017 It’s pretty clear we’re not getting trof cooperation however if we get our energy strong enough, this could come “west” however I think west would just mean a more expansive precip shield, I don’t see how this comes too far west without at least a neutral trof... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 13 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Yeah but look how positively tilted the trough axis is. https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg I think thats the trough axis valid as of 12Z thurs...24-36 hours earlier than this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, mikem81 said: I think thats the trough axis valid as of 12Z thurs...24-36 hours earlier than this storm. It matches the other medium range guidance which shows a positively tilted trough and a coastal scraper at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It matches the other medium range guidance which shows a positively tilted trough and a coastal scraper at best. Thats the 1st wave and not the storm that piece shears out the second max is back in Mexico and doesn't eject out off GA until hour 66 - 69. You're looking at the wrong time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 The GFS is the only model jumping the 2nd SW too far east . It doesn't see the 2nd SW as the stronger of the 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 12z gfs even further east, not even close. Continues with the trends of the gfs, euro, gefs and eps of pretty much a total miss. I’m not going near the 84hr nam or navgem or Canadian unless the gfs or euro, the two superior models, start to show some improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 CMC is still a good hit Delete if anyone wants to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: 12z gfs even further east, not even close. Continues with the trends of the gfs, euro, gefs and eps of pretty much a total miss. I’m not going near the 84hr nam or navgem or Canadian unless the gfs or euro, the two superior models, start to show some improvement. Eps wasn't a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 It largely was and it’s trend over 48 hrs wasn’t good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: CMC is still a good hit Looks better than 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: It largely was and it’s trend over 48 hrs wasn’t good What ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2017 Author Share Posted December 6, 2017 GGEM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Listen no disrespect and I hope it snows. However, I can’t hump late runs of the nam or navgem or Canadian. You and Paulie decide to I’m not sure that’s the ship you want to go down with this early in the winter. But right now I’m seeing it like a beach ball and when you get in a zone like that best just to ride the hot hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 22 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: 12z gfs even further east, not even close. Continues with the trends of the gfs, euro, gefs and eps of pretty much a total miss. I’m not going near the 84hr nam or navgem or Canadian unless the gfs or euro, the two superior models, start to show some improvement. Ahhh, the 6z GEFS dropped .3 into CNJ .5 to brick which was a slight improvement from its 0z run. The EPS brought .2 into S Monmouth County. Either you don't have access to the models or you're just trolling. The UKMET is the # 2 skill score model and that dropped .6 in Monmouth County last night. The GFS OP is the only model missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Looks like Ukie shifted further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 11 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Ahhh, the 6z GEFS dropped .3 into CNJ .5 to brick which was a slight improvement from its 0z run. The EPS brought .2 into S Monmouth County. Either you don't have access to the models or you're just trolling. The UKMET is the # 2 skill score model and that dropped .6 in Monmouth County last night. The GFS OP is the only model missing. Brick and southern nj aren’t this forum. They might see a light wet accumulation. Euro op nothing, eps nothing, gfs op nothing, gefs a few wound up members but largely nothing. You can have the rest. Lie down with dogs, wake up with flees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Looks like Ukie shifted further west Looks like the 12z UKMET tracked inside the benchmark and strengthened to 985 mb near Newfoundland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: Brick and southern nj aren’t this forum. They might see a light wet accumulation. Euro op nothing, eps nothing, gfs op nothing, gefs a few wound up members but largely nothing. You can have the rest. Lie down with dogs, wake up with flees. What part of .2 .3 into Monmouth did you miss lol. And the NAV GGEM UKMET are way more Thats not P Cloudy like you are calling for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 .2 into southern Monmouth in this forum from some wound up ensembles members ain’t getting it done. In fact the eps median is a whiff, a few leaners skew it to the flurry side. Why pitch to Bonds with a base open? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, TheCloser24 said: Looks like the 12z UKMET tracked inside the benchmark and strengthened to 985 mb near Newfoundland. Yep Big shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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