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December Model Discussion

UlsterCountySnowZ

By UlsterCountySnowZ,
in New York City Metro

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

Given the pattern, I'm okay with models now showing a miss or a scrape. The trough becoming a little sharper or the ridge slightly stronger would shift at least decent snow back to NYC for a while. I'd almost rather it be a scrape/near miss than be in the bullseye now and sweat the rain/snow line creeping closer. If what happens 72 hours out on modeling always verifies, the early March disaster last year here would've been a 18-24" blizzard on Long Island instead of a couple of inches of slop to rain. 

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redbanknjandbigbasslakepa

redbanknjandbigbasslakepa

Posted
Posted

I’m not hanging my hat on the NAVGEM. This is at best an absolute light coastal flurries/snow showers scraper based on the consensus of model data I’d trust. The weekend looks mainly dry and cool. We’ll get our snow but not this weekend. Next best shot around the 17-19th. 

Ride the hot hand guys. I’ve been hot early, calling for the cold December six weeks ago and seeing the progressive miss east this weekend. I’ll have more to follow. 

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

I’m not hanging my hat on the NAVGEM. This is at best an absolute light coastal flurries/snow showers scraper based on the consensus of model data I’d trust. The weekend looks mainly dry and cool. We’ll get our snow but not this weekend. Next best shot around the 17-19th. 

Ride the hot hand guys. I’ve been hit early, calling for the cold December six weeks ago and seeing the progressive miss east this weekend. I’ll have more to follow. 

You have the hot hand ?  You were plus 4 for November the city and surrounding airports were - 1.

Every model gives you an inch or two , not just the NAV

Hold off on knowing what this is until tomorrow 

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redbanknjandbigbasslakepa

redbanknjandbigbasslakepa

Posted
Posted

I had the cold early November and warm late. The cold early for the week overwhelmed the monthly departure. I drilled the cold December in October. Paul you’ll get your snow but this weekend is a strung out progressive front basically. No deepening and nothing to bring it north. Slides off the coast with nary a flake.

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BxEngine

BxEngine

Posted
Posted

The model thread is to discuss the various models and to keep the 84 nam and such from crapping up the actual discussion threads. If you want to discuss the upcoming pattern and your thoughts on how it will progress, by all means, please do it. Just not in here where the discussion is meant to be about the various models and what they show. 

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

I had the cold early November and warm late. The cold early for the week overwhelmed the monthly departure. I drilled the cold December in October. Paul you’ll get your snow but this weekend is a strung out progressive front basically. No deepening and nothing to bring it north. Slides off the coast with nary a flake.

Phase with the northern low ? STJ ?

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WeatherFeen2000

WeatherFeen2000

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Given the pattern, I'm okay with models now showing a miss or a scrape. The trough becoming a little sharper or the ridge slightly stronger would shift at least decent snow back to NYC for a while. I'd almost rather it be a scrape/near miss than be in the bullseye now and sweat the rain/snow line creeping closer. If what happens 72 hours out on modeling always verifies, the early March disaster last year here would've been a 18-24" blizzard on Long Island instead of a couple of inches of slop to rain. 

John, I don' think we should be worrying about rain for this weekend' system. It`s either a miss or some snow. I don't think we get any rain. 

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted

Not sure if anyone has already posted this but the 06z RGEM was pretty far West and cold for the Friday night into Saturday potential event. 12z is running as we speak.

In any event, we have two main things working against us, the first being a positively tilted trough and the second being that the energy involved in forcing the surface low is actually weakening by the time it reaches us. 

I_nw_EST_2017120600_091.png

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
Just now, Snow88 said:

A few inches is great for this time of the year. The precip is still coming up after 84 hours.

Mid Atlantic get several inches of snow

Don't you know better by now than to try and extrapolate the NAM? 

Wake me up when the GFS or Euro show anything even remotely close.

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

... this weekend is a strung out progressive front basically. No deepening and nothing to bring it north. Slides off the coast with nary a flake.

You may end up being correct, not arguing your opinion at all. I will however debate your use of the term progressive. I am only using this image since it is what happens to be open on my browser (tho there is other guidance supporting it). This is NOT a progressive look at all. A little displaced with the mean trof location? Sure. But nowhere even close to being a progressive look:

 

nam_z500_vort_us_29.png

nam_z500a_us_29.png

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

A couple of ways this can create a snow event for us-

The initial wave Friday is a little stronger and closer to the coast, or there's interaction between the northern stream and the following southern wave on Sunday. The NAM seems to be keying in on the second outcome here. But still many ways this can all change, and it can all still slide out to sea. If there's no interaction between the waves on Sunday, that will be gone out to sea, and the wave Friday can still be too flat/weak. 

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

They were close

 

 

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Actually GFS is rather close at 500mb, surface is still playing catchup. 

I am not trying to cause an argument but how is this close? You're never going to get a system to come far enough West with a trough axis like this. This is the type of setup where Southern NJ, Eastern LI and the Cape can catch a few inches. For something more meaningful, major changes need to occur.

sketched_5a2806d6ba1d6.png

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

 

I am not trying to cause an argument but how is this close? You're never going to get a system to come far enough West with a trough axis like this. This is the type of setup where Southern NJ, Eastern LI and the Cape can catch a few inches. For something more meaningful, major changes need to occur.

sketched_5a2806d6ba1d6.png

That's west of 0z run

It will all come down to interaction

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