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December Model Discussion


UlsterCountySnowZ

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this happened last winter with the early January event, the GFS was way too far east in the 3-4 days before and never corrected west until the storm was in progress. we got a surprise 10" out on the island, it was a nice Saturday storm.

that said, it's not a promising sign when the canadian is all by itself, but it came way way way west from 12z

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GGem is more of a dumpster fire than the NYG....clinching to it without other guidance would be a weenie move, if something else comes on hoard I’ll bite... still too flat imo

Day eight threat looks legitimate. While the NAM at h5 looks like a hit for the weekend, I still do not believe it.
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9 minutes ago, USCG RS said:
25 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:
GGem is more of a dumpster fire than the NYG....clinching to it without other guidance would be a weenie move, if something else comes on hoard I’ll bite... still too flat imo
 

Day eight threat looks legitimate. While the NAM at h5 looks like a hit for the weekend, I still do not believe it.

Lol... as I was responding I see UKIE came way west and stronger for Weeknd, also the Gefs have a lot of EC snowstorm members, still need gfs or euro 

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Lol... as I was responding I see UKIE came way west and stronger for Weeknd, also the Gefs have a lot of EC snowstorm members, still need gfs or euro 

Yeah, there's alot in play and Flux right now, so we will see. That being said, I think regardless, this winter will plenty of snow for the entire sub forum.
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6 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Lol... as I was responding I see UKIE came way west and stronger for Weeknd, also the Gefs have a lot of EC snowstorm members, still need gfs or euro 

The real threat if there is one is next week. For this weekend the GFS/GEFS, Euro/EPS, all misses

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6z GFS and gefs are slightly west of the previous runs.

 6z Navgem is still a good hit

It wouldn't take much for the gfs and Euro to trend back west. We have seen this many times with these events how the Stj was stronger than modeled as we got closer to the event 

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4 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

There is no GFS phasing for the 9th-----the 13th. now looks like the 9th. did previously-----a midmonth try and the first potential plowmaster GOM beast does not kickoff till the 19th.  Enjoy the BN temps. while we wait.

Don't take your eye off of next weeks storm.

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21 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

Overnight runs continue the trends of the last 48 hours of the fri-sun period being dry but cool.

UKMET

JMA

GGEM

GEFS

EPS

NAV

 

ALL snow for you to some degree on the Jersey Shore.

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Fake snow though....you know Paul, if it isn't a HECS it's not real. ;-)

Ralph it's crazy ,  some of the declarative statements in here about these types of Arctic waves are hard to read through.

The models are 72 hours out and precip shield and center need  a 50 mile fix for some.

But yeh , I guess if it's not sizeable it's not worth real analysis.

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