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December Model Discussion

UlsterCountySnowZ

By UlsterCountySnowZ,
in New York City Metro

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Rittenhouse

Rittenhouse

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Gfs will be OTS... wayyy to elongated 

NYC and LI still have a good chance of seeing measurable snow. A shift of only ~50miles in trof orientation would bring widespread 1-3" to our area. Not bad for early December. The NAM is the NAM but it shows that this setup has the potential to produce if the trof can consolidate some. The NAM doesn't look all that different at 500mb from the globals, just a little more consolidated. Still ~96hrs out...

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UlsterCountySnowZ

UlsterCountySnowZ

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I think coastal sections especially Long Island/ cape cod etc, still have a shot at some accumulating snows, however It’s becoming clear to ME that trof orientation is going to stay positive (not good). therefor we would need a stronger shortwave.. not the weakening piece we’re currently seeing, and more consolidation as oppose to elongation... I think we’re looking at a scrape scenario, with some light snow for coastal section, SNJ or Easter LI May squeeze out some accumulation, but anyone in the burbs or even the immediate metro, I’m not seeing more than mood flakes... now as for next week... heights rebuild, and we finally get some decent trof orientation, our ULL is in a much better position, and our trof digs further south/and goes neutral/Neg... were also dealing with a strong consolidated piece of of energy riding our trof oppose to an elongated mess, causes an area of elongated LP

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

I don't believe any good weather mets else are

saying that.

Several points are in order:

1. The December 13 +/- 5 day period is not especially snowy in terms of climatology. So, one should keep that in mind.

2. The forecast AO-/PNA+ pattern during that timeframe is snowier than the period as a whole (climatology) and much snowier than when such dual blocking is absent.

Let's take a look at the data to try to reach an informed idea:

AO-/PNA+ during 12/8-18/1981-2010 (127 days) vs. 12/8-18/1981-2010 Base Period (330 days):
● Accounted for 57% of all days with measurable snowfall
● Accounted for 67% of all days on which 1” or more snow fell
● Accounted for 75% of all days on which 2” or more snow fell

AO-/PNA+ during 12/8-18/1981-2010 (127 days) vs. 12/8-18/1981-2010 Base Period (330 days):
● Days with measurable snowfall were 48% more likely than for the base period as a whole
● Days with 1” or more snowfall were 73% more likely than for the base period as a whole
● Days with 2” or more snowfall were 95% more likely than for the base period as a whole

AO-/PNA+ during 12/8-18/1981-2010 (127 days) vs. All days without AO-/PNA+ 12/8-18/1981-2010 (203 days):
● Days with measurable snowfall were 113% more likely than for days without an AO-/PNA+
● Days with 1” or more snowfall were 220% more likely than for days without an AO-/PNA+
● Days with 2” or more snowfall were 380% more likely than for days without an AO-/PNA+

In sum, one can’t broad brush the idea that a possible light or moderate accumulating snowfall event around 12/13 (now shown on the 12z GFS, 0z ECMWF, and 0z EPS) is unlikely. The forecast patter is <u>far more</u> conducive for such events than is typically the case.

Higher probabilities are no guarantee. But they do suggest that the chance of such a storm is more likely than is typically the case under climatology or especially when dual AO/PNA blocking is not present.

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The forecast for such an intense low through New England around the 13th looks much like the Groundhog Gale of 1976.

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/24hourprof/would-the-groundhog-day-gale-of-1976-been-a-named-winter-storm.html

it was more of a Ground Hog fail around these parts...1" followed by brief cold...

1976...

http://world.nycsubw...perl/show?53545

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uncle W

uncle W

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

That is usually the case with PV phasers which get going further to the Northeast of us. It was still an impressive storm producing some of the lowest blowout tides on record around here.

in Feb 1976 when things settled down there was an off shore storm that was close enough to give us 24hrs of light snow adding up to 4"...after that we torched...

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We would like to see the phase occur sooner than the Euro has been showing. But it's always a challenge getting things to work out fast enough. Should be a very intense storm following the phase.

75-76 had two late phazers...the one in Feb you mentioned and the one before Christmas...there could be more but I'm not sure...

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We would like to see the phase occur sooner than the Euro has been showing. But it's always a challenge getting things to work out fast enough. Should be a very intense storm following the phase.

Is this the progged storm for next Tuesday that people seem to be getting gung-ho about?

 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
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3 minutes ago, uncle W said:

75-76 had two late phazers...the one in Feb you mentioned and the one before Christmas...there could be more but I'm not sure...

Didn't we have a stalling "neutercane" scenario in the late 80s or early 90s when we had 36 hours of snow?  It was just wet during the day but accumulated at night to around 8" near JFK.  Accumulating snowfall was only in a narrow band between Newark and the Hamptons.  I believe NYC ended up with 4-4.5"  Storm stalled just SE of the Hamptons.

 

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Didn't we have a stalling "neutercane" scenario in the late 80s or early 90s when we had 36 hours of snow?  It was just wet during the day but accumulated at night to around 8" near JFK.  Accumulating snowfall was only in a narrow band between Newark and the Hamptons.  I believe NYC ended up with 4-4.5"  Storm stalled just SE of the Hamptons.

 

search this sight for past weather ...

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/lcd/lcd.html?_page=1&state=NY&stationID=94728&_target2=Next+%3E

The winter of 1975-76 was cold with below average snowfall because there was no major storm...it did snow a little on Christmas day and New Years day...

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Didn't we have a stalling "neutercane" scenario in the late 80s or early 90s when we had 36 hours of snow?  It was just wet during the day but accumulated at night to around 8" near JFK.  Accumulating snowfall was only in a narrow band between Newark and the Hamptons.  I believe NYC ended up with 4-4.5"  Storm stalled just SE of the Hamptons.

 

That sort of sounds like 2/27/91 but that wasn’t really that type of dynamic setup though 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
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4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That sort of sounds like 2/27/91 but that wasn’t really that type of dynamic setup though 

That might be it!  Was that a busted forecast where a front was just supposed to cross the area and it stalled out and it just kept snowing?  Do you have snowfall totals or history from that storm?

It seemed to be rather common in the early 90s (though not the longevity that storm had), there was another stalled arctic front that caused it to snow all day and we got between 4-7 inches widespread across the area and it cleared just in time for sunset.  The 7 inch lollipop was in Plainview if I remember correctly.  That was a different storm but also happened in February in the early 90s.

 

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
9 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:
Nam wide right for weekend. Very progressive 
 

Yes, very progressive look hitting a wall in the WAR and going for a full phase and developing coastal storm post 84 hours.....as modeled. That is NOT a progressive look.

If only we still had the DGEX to look at :)

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
Who cares what the NAM is showing at hour 84 anyway? Why fight over this?

I dont think anyone is taking the NAM verbatim at range.....majority here know better. The argument is the OP stated the NAM was very progressive which it clearly is not if you look at H5. And I thought this was a model discussion thread.....and whether good or poor verification, isnt the NAM a model so Im not sure who made you the model police.
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