donsutherland1 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 40 minutes ago, bluewave said: Seems like the main reason we really need the GFS for is the MOS output. Do you know where we can find the ECMWF MOS? That's about the only thing we need to make the ECMWF forecasts more complete. I know Forky posted the recent cold bias issues with the raw Euro 2m T's. But my guess is that the MOS numbers may correct for that. MDL's SMB applies the MOS technique to output from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting's (ECMWF) models. This statistically calibrated objective guidance includes a wide variety of weather elements and time projections and is provided within NOAA. Bluewave, I'm not sure where the actual ECMWF MOS output can be found. I haven't found it. Yes, I believe it corrects for the raw numbers (which can be far too low for some of the major urban areas). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 27 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Bluewave, I'm not sure where the actual ECMWF MOS output can be found. I haven't found it. Yes, I believe it corrects for the raw numbers (which can be far too low for some of the major urban areas). Don, I believe it's only available on the NWS office AWIPS terminals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 29 minutes ago, bluewave said: Don, I believe it's only available on the NWS office AWIPS terminals. You’re probably right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 hour ago, bluewave said: This December is a great example of how you can nickle and dime your way to above normal snowfall without a bluckbuster event like 2010 or 2011. very much like 2002 , 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, SACRUS said: very much like 2002 , 2008 2003 was warm too overall in December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Earthlight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 12 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Earthlight Pretty much what I have been thinking. A few inches. Best chance being east of the city. A big storm is off the table for us and has been for a while. The question is, is it a dusting or a solid advisory event. That will not be known until at least tomorrow night. Still waiting on sampling as the wave in question is still offshore with the fast flow. Once that’s ingested tomorrow, tomorrow nights runs should give us the final answer. It’s impossible to say at this point if any sort of IVT sets up. Obviously a few inches would be preferable as it would help temps during the peak of the cold. I can’t wait to see the live broadcast from Times Square if it’s 10 or lower with strong CAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Thing about is the ground is good and cold and the road treatments won't be as effective as at higher temps. It won't take much snow at all to make a mess of the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Nam much improved with 1-3 inches for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Nam much improved with 1-3 inches for the area. Yep Better run than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Where are you guys seeing 1-3? I see .02" of liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Where are you guys seeing 1-3? I see .02" of liquid It coats parts of the area, but still falls short of an inch. Nevertheless, at both the surface and at 500 mb, it’s an improvement over the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 19 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Nam much improved with 1-3 inches for the area. That’s not what it’s showing. It doesn’t even have so much as an inch anywhere in the area actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 37 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Where are you guys seeing 1-3? I see .02" of liquid That’s all it showed, total. A dusting in spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Yes my mistake it looked like a 1-3 inches but it didn't result to much accumulations regardless it was an improvement and you've been saying that this has no chance but it's trending to a 1-3 inches and thats what I think we'll end up getting What you think is going to happen and what a model run actually shows are 2 completely different things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 NAM just crushes my area with 1-1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Looks great for the 3rd to the 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: Looks great for the 3rd to the 5th. He’s down in central Virginia. That’s like us saying a pattern looks bad for Maine. He is right though to an extent. With even a slightly negative west based NAO we would have a shot at a MEC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 A little too early to write off Saturdays clipper. Right now 1-3 inches is a good call but let's see what the models show today and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Every model still shows a coastal next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: That’s not what it’s showing. It doesn’t even have so much as an inch anywhere in the area actually Still improved over past runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 It's something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 I honestly can not remember a pattern like this that has given the forecast models and some meteorologists so much trouble. The short and medium range accuracy this winter has been anything but that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: I honestly can not remember a pattern like this that has given the forecast models and some meteorologists so much trouble. The short and medium range accuracy this winter has been anything but that. This pattern has potential before it breaks, but it is very complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 9 hours ago, bluewave said: This December is a great example of how you can nickle and dime your way to above normal snowfall without a bluckbuster event like 2010 or 2011. I mean we don't average much snow in December anyway so it's a lot easier to do it then in January or February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 hour ago, Rjay said: Lol Is that a hurricane headed for Halifax? Man Canada gets the best of everything lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 7 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Pretty much what I have been thinking. A few inches. Best chance being east of the city. A big storm is off the table for us and has been for a while. The question is, is it a dusting or a solid advisory event. That will not be known until at least tomorrow night. Still waiting on sampling as the wave in question is still offshore with the fast flow. Once that’s ingested tomorrow, tomorrow nights runs should give us the final answer. It’s impossible to say at this point if any sort of IVT sets up. Obviously a few inches would be preferable as it would help temps during the peak of the cold. I can’t wait to see the live broadcast from Times Square if it’s 10 or lower with strong CAA. I'd much rather have snow with temps in the upper 20s than this cold dry mess lol. My indoor humidity is under 20% it's awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: This pattern has potential before it breaks, but it is very complex. Not sure if it breaks down completely The epo keeps reloading on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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